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Old 10-31-2012, 12:42 AM   #1401
The_Dude_Abides
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

House...thoughts on Russell Wilson & Co at home this week?

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Old 10-31-2012, 09:21 AM   #1402
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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House...thoughts on Russell Wilson & Co at home this week?

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i know nothing about football. just know they are the 4th biggest moneyline favourite.
if i had to pick an nfl team that was my favourite i'd say seattle due to proximity, so i'm cheering for them. was in detroit last weekend and saw detroit beat them. was a good game though and fun to be at.
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Old 10-31-2012, 05:44 PM   #1403
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Any thoughts on taking a bit of a gamble for a pick just to go against the crowd in a smallish Pool? There's 14 of 37 left in mine and in past 4 weeks its been all generic with the crowd picks. Thinking of taking SD to win this week mostly to save my Houston, Denver, Chi, NE, SF for later but also to go against the crowd, although i may be a bit biased I'm somewhat of a Chargers fan but not hardcore.
Also looks like this is the best time left in the season to use SD, but also know how inconsistent they are. Or am I just overthinking this and no need for this kind of play with such a small pool of 14 left?
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Old 10-31-2012, 09:21 PM   #1404
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Any thoughts on taking a bit of a gamble for a pick just to go against the crowd in a smallish Pool? There's 14 of 37 left in mine and in past 4 weeks its been all generic with the crowd picks. Thinking of taking SD to win this week mostly to save my Houston, Denver, Chi, NE, SF for later but also to go against the crowd, although i may be a bit biased I'm somewhat of a Chargers fan but not hardcore.
Also looks like this is the best time left in the season to use SD, but also know how inconsistent they are. Or am I just overthinking this and no need for this kind of play with such a small pool of 14 left?
Of the 14 teams remaining, how many have used the following teams:

Green Bay
Houston
San Diego
Seattle
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Old 10-31-2012, 10:35 PM   #1405
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Heard this stat somewhere: Kansas City has not lead one second, of one game, all season. Won at NOR, but trailed entire game and won on last play. Hoping that trend continues and SD gets on track offensively...


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Old 10-31-2012, 11:56 PM   #1406
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Of the 14 teams remaining, how many have used the following teams:

Green Bay
Houston
San Diego
Seattle
Only 1 has GB left, 13 have Houston left, all 14 have SD left, all 14 have Seattle left.
Hmm now come to think of it since this is a SD based survival pool and the feelings most
of the town has towards the team right now, I bet if I took them hardly anyone else would
be crazy enough to do so as well, def some seperation value I'm thinking. But is there a better
week to use Houston? Looks pretty solid against Buffalo this week

Last edited by ProfBets; 11-01-2012 at 12:08 AM.
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Old 10-31-2012, 11:58 PM   #1407
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by The_Dude_Abides View Post
Heard this stat somewhere: Kansas City has not lead one second, of one game, all season. Won at NOR, but trailed entire game and won on last play. Hoping that trend continues and SD gets on track offensively...


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Yea am aware of this stat too, KC might even have a worse coach then SD and is a turnover machine, also hopefully theres a heat under Norvs ass more then ever after these past few games for SD and also they're at home. I'd be most confortable using SD this week then whole rest of the season but for a 14 man pool should I even be looking ahead that far? I still have Houston, NE, SF, Chi, Denver and others left also as mentioned.
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Old 11-01-2012, 12:58 AM   #1408
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Come to the conclusion that this is the best week to use SD except maybe til Wk 12 vs Ravens or Wk 13 Cinci and almost no one should pick SD this week (rumors that if Norv loses this game he's fired also). However, also might be the best wk to use Chi in the next several weeks (6 of 14 have already used Chi in pool). Now stuck on these two, but Chi seems a tad bit safer but if it goes the distance may have to gamble a lot more with SD later. Thoughts?
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Old 11-01-2012, 02:53 AM   #1409
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

But then Houston seems like a dead lock vs worst defense in the league Buffalo, although everyone will be on it in my but if I'm picking something against the popular consensus shouldn't I do that when there's a reasonable chance that the most popular pick will be upset? Which I don't even see a slight chance of happening in this Hous vs Buff Game.
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Old 11-01-2012, 09:41 AM   #1410
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Green Bay -550
Houston -515
San Diego -314
Seattle -225
Atlanta -200

Everyone else us -186 or lower, which means they are 64% or lower to win their game. You'd have to have a pretty compelling reason to convince me to not pick one of the top five teams this week.

Green Bay, 85% to win, should be taken by the lone person who has them left.

Of the remaining 13, I expect about 7 on Houston, 5 on San Diego, 1 on Seattle. This is based on win probability and future value.

If you expect San Diego will not be as popular, that makes them a better pick. If you think Houston is going to be saved by lots of people, that makes them a better pick. If you think you're going to be the only one on Seattle, tgey're a great pick.

This is the best spot to use SD. Other less attractive spots are vs. CIN/CAR/OAK. Home to BAL, yuck.

You should have used Chicago by now. Only remaining spots are @TEN, MIN, SEA. Not particularly great.

If you can't tell what everyone else has picked, just go Houston. They have lots of future value in JAX, IND, @IND, but they're also 10% more likely to win than anyone other than GB this week.
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Old 11-01-2012, 01:19 PM   #1411
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

thx a lot, good advice
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:34 PM   #1412
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Any comments from the sluffs that said saints were a bad pick when they lost to the chiefs?
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Old 11-01-2012, 11:43 PM   #1413
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Ended up taking SD mostly so I didn't have to sweat them rest of the season and knew no one in a SD based pool would be crazy enough to take them with the opinion of the team around here...worked like a charm, I'm only one that took SD and they won obv now get to sit back and sweat the rest of games and chance at winning my pool outright! and Houston for later, GL rest of yall
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Old 11-02-2012, 11:46 AM   #1414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfBets View Post
Ended up taking SD mostly so I didn't have to sweat them rest of the season and knew no one in a SD based pool would be crazy enough to take them with the opinion of the team around here...worked like a charm, I'm only one that took SD and they won obv now get to sit back and sweat the rest of games and chance at winning my pool outright! and Houston for later, GL rest of yall
Green Bay and Houston are much more likely to win their games this week than the Chargers were last night, but not likely enough to warrant only a single pick kn San Diego.

Congrats, you're now in the catbird seat for the next few days.
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Old 11-02-2012, 01:24 PM   #1415
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Ended up taking SD mostly so I didn't have to sweat them rest of the season and knew no one in a SD based pool would be crazy enough to take them with the opinion of the team around here...worked like a charm, I'm only one that took SD and they won obv now get to sit back and sweat the rest of games and chance at winning my pool outright! and Houston for later, GL rest of yall
Your pool is not a standard survivor pool is it? 14/37 left is a lot for this year, and only one taking SD (the best week all year to use SD) in a pool full of people from SD just doesn't make any sense.
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Old 11-02-2012, 02:40 PM   #1416
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

yea it was kind of a rebuy we had one starting week 1, then this one started Week 5 seperately and its just through my buddies' work so I think a softer field then usual more casual players. And you'd be surprised how many ppl have given up on SD for the rest of the season around here after our past couple losses before this, yes the MNF 24-0 blown loss to Denver was horrid but Cleveland loss wasn't as bad theyre better this yr then normal and I think no one took the time to even look at how much worse KC is.
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Old 11-02-2012, 04:41 PM   #1417
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I passed on SD last minute due to WR game time injuries. I've used Detroit, Cincinnati, Dallas, Baltimore, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New England, Green Bay.

Was thinking Washington is a good play at home over Carolina. Some are taking Seattle at home over Minnesota, but the more I look at it the more I hate it. Saving Houston, Atlanta, San Fran for upcoming weeks and think this is the last "gambly" week. If I get through this week I think I have a perfect season (barring any big upsets of course.)

Was curious about everyone's thoughts.
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Old 11-02-2012, 07:57 PM   #1418
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Think I like Seattle a bit more obv cuz of how they've done at Home so far, and seems their run D should be able to handle AP better then Vikings can handle Lynch. Also Ponders, AP r a lil banged up and their TO Carlson is out. But then again Washington seems good too Cam Newtons team can't seem to close out a game and forces too many plays, but both r very close (as in which I would pick) and games that if you over analyze you'll keep second guessing yourself lol. I might let future value determine the choice here (depends on size of your pool tho) if i still was back n forth, but leaning a tiny bit more towards Seattle, jus me tho GL.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:01 PM   #1419
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I passed on SD last minute due to WR game time injuries. I've used Detroit, Cincinnati, Dallas, Baltimore, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New England, Green Bay.

Was thinking Washington is a good play at home over Carolina. Some are taking Seattle at home over Minnesota, but the more I look at it the more I hate it. Saving Houston, Atlanta, San Fran for upcoming weeks and think this is the last "gambly" week. If I get through this week I think I have a perfect season (barring any big upsets of course.)

Was curious about everyone's thoughts.
How many people have Houston left? If little to none, take them.
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Old 11-02-2012, 08:05 PM   #1420
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Just looked, both Seattle and Wash have some tough or gambly ish weeks to take them coming up also...would be a tough pick. What other options you got?
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Old 11-02-2012, 11:22 PM   #1421
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Local pool tally, no Thursday games and only 50 left from 900+, $200/entry

Houston 28
Green Bay 15
Atlanta 2
Seattle 2
Baltimore 1
Denver 1
Detroit 1

Starting to see some separation...
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Old 11-03-2012, 01:26 AM   #1422
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How many people have Houston left? If little to none, take them.
What about week 11? I was looking at it again and think Atlanta might not be a bad choice. Thoughts? We have 33 left and I think only a handful of players still have Houston available. Just worried about week 11?
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Old 11-03-2012, 01:40 AM   #1423
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Well for longevity purposes, your next 3 weeks should be HOU-SF-ATL. As far as win percentage your next available option is Seattle. If you wanna gamble and keep HOU for weeks 13-16, Take Seattle.
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Old 11-03-2012, 02:20 AM   #1424
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

sooo jealous of ur guys epicly huge pools ur in while I sit in my 37 person $20 buyin with 14 left lol
where do you find such huge pools to get into?
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Old 11-03-2012, 02:37 AM   #1425
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Well for longevity purposes, your next 3 weeks should be HOU-SF-ATL. As far as win percentage your next available option is Seattle. If you wanna gamble and keep HOU for weeks 13-16, Take Seattle.
I was thinking Houston, Pittsburg, Atlanta, San Francisco..right?
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