Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-05-2012, 12:43 AM   #1276
SeanyJ
adept
 
SeanyJ's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 1,014
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I have Vikings in right now.

Tempted to use Houston but would like to save them for week 9 vs Buffalo. Could take SF but like them in week 7 vs Seattle. Oh and I already used the Giants unfortunately, after nearly having a heart attack last week with Arizona I think I'll probably have another stressful game this week!
SeanyJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2012, 09:17 AM   #1277
CohibaBehike
Pooh-Bah
 
CohibaBehike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: LS Life
Posts: 3,601
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Vikings won't be stressful, they will win by greater than a touchdown.
CohibaBehike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2012, 03:47 PM   #1278
clfst17
grinder
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 607
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by hotwings18 View Post
Thinking about the Bengals but for some reason want to pick the Giants... hmm
I'm assuming you already used San Francisco...
clfst17 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2012, 04:54 PM   #1279
BraveJayhawk
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
BraveJayhawk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Couch Coaching
Posts: 7,983
Think it's a great week to avoid separation theory. It's valuable in survivor pools but I think NYG is the best pick to make except in extreme circumstances.

Taking them in my last 4 entries of my double elimination with tiebreaker. Have loss in all of them. 33% of those with no loss took NYG. Go buffalo
BraveJayhawk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2012, 05:06 PM   #1280
Steroid Boy
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Steroid Boy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Backpacking Bananas
Posts: 41,646
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

half the giants are injured
Steroid Boy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-05-2012, 06:47 PM   #1281
canabiz
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 228
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Tally from the local pool, $200/pop, starting with 900+, down to 76

49ers 35
Giants 22
Houston 7
Minnesota 4
Green Bay 3
Baltimore 2
Carolina 1
Chicago 1
Cincinnati 1
canabiz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2012, 11:38 AM   #1282
accobra_kid
$tat$ King
 
accobra_kid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 13,547
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
If you want to play in a pool with more than 100 people, you're going to have to pay juice. What's the incentive to run a 10k, 30k, 100k pool and not get anything out of it. If you're in any like this that don't charge vig, tell me about them and I'll pay you 5% vig for each one that I play in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CohibaBehike View Post
My pool was 100 people on the nose $50 buy in and dude who ran it took 5% vig.
I'm shocked to hear this. However, I've only played in comparatively small-stakes pools. Under 125 entrants, under $50 entry, prize pool of only a few thousand. Office pools, friends and family... not what I would consider high stakes. We've taken a cut of the prize pool to cover league website costs, but no profit or vig on top of that has been taken.

I run pools and leagues all the time without taking a cut, and I do so because I enjoy doing it and it gives me something fun to talk to my coworkers about on our lunch break. As I consider myself pretty organized and attentive to detail, this seems like an incredibly easy money-making opportunity.
accobra_kid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-06-2012, 11:52 AM   #1283
accobra_kid
$tat$ King
 
accobra_kid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 13,547
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

OFP pick distribution:
NYG 36%
SF 29%
GB 10%
MIN 7%
HOU 4%
CIN 3%
CHI 3%
BAL 2%

Yahoo pick distribution:
NYG 39%
SF 19%
GB 14%
MIN 7%
CHI 5%
HOU 5%
CIN 4%
BAL 3%

Strategies are really going to vary by the size of your pool and who has which teams remaining. Of course, my big pool has 50% on NYG this week, making them unpickable.

49ers have a lot of future value and are too popular. Minnesota, I'm not sure they're as good as their record indicates, and I don't think they're significantly better than the Titans.

At these %'s, Houston looks very good. No opportunities to use them until week 9 against BUF. In small pools that are highly likely to be over by then, the Texans are a great pick as many people have already used them. You're certainly not going to be using them in the next three weeks (GB, BAL, BYE). Equally as likely as the Giants to win, but 30% less people are picking them. Not the best pick in larger pools.

I think I might be on Baltimore as my primary pick. Not much less likely than SF or NYG to win, but significantly less popular. I think you shouldn't be picking them versus Dallas at home next week (despite the throttling against the Bears, Cowboys aren't a terrible team), so again, you wouldn't need them until possibly week 9.

Teams used: Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, Baltimore
accobra_kid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 08:02 PM   #1284
CohibaBehike
Pooh-Bah
 
CohibaBehike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: LS Life
Posts: 3,601
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

On to next week thanks to Minnesota easy victory.
CohibaBehike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 08:05 PM   #1285
Randal_Graves
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Randal_Graves's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: @tjurk44
Posts: 9,681
Giantsssss. See you all next week.

Falcon tiiiimeeeee
Randal_Graves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 08:41 PM   #1286
accobra_kid
$tat$ King
 
accobra_kid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 13,547
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Falcon tiiiimeeeee
Going to be very popular, secondary options are a HUGE dropoff in win probability.
accobra_kid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 08:48 PM   #1287
hotwings18
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
hotwings18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Quest for 12
Posts: 11,317
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Out
hotwings18 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 09:14 PM   #1288
canabiz
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 228
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by hotwings18 View Post
Out
Did you take Bengals? Condolences, dude.

For Week 6, I agree with you guys, Atlanta will be a very popular choice. Pitt would not look too bad. Zona may also be worth a look (10 day rest) as the Bills D is simply atrocious and Ryan Fitz is too erratic.
canabiz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 09:15 PM   #1289
Snapcall87
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 909
Ugh feel your pain. Switched from cincy to GB so either way I was screwed. Shoulda followed the pool with NYG
Snapcall87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-07-2012, 09:21 PM   #1290
hotwings18
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
hotwings18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Quest for 12
Posts: 11,317
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by canabiz View Post
Did you take Bengals? Condolences, dude.

For Week 6, I agree with you guys, Atlanta will be a very popular choice. Pitt would not look too bad. Zona may also be worth a look (10 day rest) as the Bills D is simply atrocious and Ryan Fitz is too erratic.
Took the Bengals.

FU Dalton FU AJ Green
hotwings18 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 08:34 AM   #1291
CohibaBehike
Pooh-Bah
 
CohibaBehike's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: LS Life
Posts: 3,601
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
Minnesota, I'm not sure they're as good as their record indicates, and I don't think they're significantly better than the Titans.
Quite the mis-read there.
CohibaBehike is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 08:54 AM   #1292
Randal_Graves
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Randal_Graves's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: @tjurk44
Posts: 9,681
Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
Going to be very popular, secondary options are a HUGE dropoff in win probability.
There's only like 10 people left in my pool. And it's a rebuy and I'm one of 4 who haven't gotten one wrong yet. Doubtful any more than 5 take Falcons.
Randal_Graves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 10:39 AM   #1293
housenuts
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
housenuts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Come With Me If You Want To Lift
Posts: 32,375
God dammit. Was on gb with only 4 left. Others survived, me out. In good news it knocked someone out of my other pool where I had sf.
housenuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 05:21 PM   #1294
cbayly12
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 885
Have 116 left in a 1200 man pool. Have 3 entries remaining. Used Atlanta for 1 of my entries in week 4. I know Atlanta is going to be the overwhelmingly big pick, so what's my play? Was thinking jets over Indy, but I don't like it anymore.
cbayly12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 06:00 PM   #1295
Gabby Hayes
veteran
 
Gabby Hayes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Wild Wild West
Posts: 2,847
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbayly12 View Post
Have 116 left in a 1200 man pool. Have 3 entries remaining. Used Atlanta for 1 of my entries in week 4. I know Atlanta is going to be the overwhelmingly big pick, so what's my play? Was thinking jets over Indy, but I don't like it anymore.
It would help to know what other teams you have already taken.
Gabby Hayes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 06:20 PM   #1296
cbayly12
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 885
Just a hypothetical question, looking for a strategical answer. Assuming that Atlanta is an option, do you still take them even though they are going to be the biggest pick by far? Or do you gamble with Philadelphia, NYJ, etc?

Just curious about 1000+ entry pools when getting below 10% of remaining pool.

My instincts say Atlanta is a bad play, but this weeks schedule seems tough.
cbayly12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 06:40 PM   #1297
Gabby Hayes
veteran
 
Gabby Hayes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Wild Wild West
Posts: 2,847
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbayly12 View Post
Just a hypothetical question, looking for a strategical answer. Assuming that Atlanta is an option, do you still take them even though they are going to be the biggest pick by far? Or do you gamble with Philadelphia, NYJ, etc?

Just curious about 1000+ entry pools when getting below 10% of remaining pool.

My instincts say Atlanta is a bad play, but this weeks schedule seems tough.
Yeah, I'd say with that many people left, I would not take Atlanta considering their future value. But you have 3 entries left, I might burn 1 entry with Atlanta. And I don't think I would ever take the Jets in this spot.
Gabby Hayes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 08:32 PM   #1298
accobra_kid
$tat$ King
 
accobra_kid's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 13,547
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbayly12 View Post
I know Atlanta is going to be the overwhelmingly big pick, so what's my play?
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbayly12 View Post
Assuming that Atlanta is an option, do you still take them even though they are going to be the biggest pick by far?
It all depends on a number of factors, the biggest of which is how popular Atlanta is in your specific pool.

My personal opinion is that a team with 40%+ of picks on them is unpickable, unless there is a complete absence of secondary alternatives.
accobra_kid is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 09:28 PM   #1299
housenuts
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
housenuts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Come With Me If You Want To Lift
Posts: 32,375
Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Pitts is my 2nd favourite after atlanta
housenuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-08-2012, 10:14 PM   #1300
cbayly12
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 885
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
Pitts is my 2nd favourite after atlanta
Yeah I agree. The Jets were my play when I scheduled it at the beginning of the year, which I now also think is a bad play. But you do have to gamble to win these things.
cbayly12 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online