That's my issue with the Saints. Problem is I don't see a whole lot else. This week NYG and Cin were good picks IMO. Chi next week isn't nearly as good as NYG/Cin this week. Plus with how NO has been playing, it's not like they have a ton of future value like NE did.

Assuming DL does their usual late season sell-off, they might be the play this week.

Got it between the 49ers and Steelers this week.
With an outside chance of dare I say it..... The Colts?

Saints week 3.

Don't have to get fancy every single week.

Their schedule is brutal the rest of the year.

agree i'm going saints too

lol at being results oriented. it's not like you are betting against the spread and the public is giving up way too many points or something. new england was favored by 13.5, they had the best odds of winning the game.

i dont think fading the public sounds too intelligent in a pick'em strategy game.

when your goal is to be the last one standing in a suicide pool it is - DUCY?

The problem with picking the team with "the best odds of winning" include...

1) Wasting that team. NE has a piece of cake schedule, and they will have many games in the season that will come in handy once you get to week 8 and beyond when most other string teams are gone.

2) Taking the teams that's the biggest spread favorite, or the "safest" each week is a very common strategy, especially amongst new survivor players. So in the event that every "safe" pick wins (unlikely), you likely will be splitting the prize pool in multiple ways. I'd rather have a 10% chance at winning the 1k (or whatever) prize pool completely, maybe splitting it two or three ways.. Than a 25% chance of splitting it 10+ ways.

You clearly don't have all the information about various pools people might be in. There is one I have done for a few years where ABC is far from status quo so it's been relatively easy to play super straightforward and make money. I even won the whole thing once without deviating much at all from selecting the biggest ML fav each week, never selecting road teams, avoiding divisionals, etc. just all that basic stuff.

Totally agree but the majority of people in my particular pool think this way so it seems there is sufficient differentiation at times by making the obvious choice.

+1

Well I'm out on NE obv. No free beer for me this year. GLA

Agree

How much does future value diminish in a league where 50% is knocked out in week 2? On paper I think I like Chicago better than NO but obviously Chicago has some juicy matchups later on. Just playing devil's advocate...

This is a good point. I've heard of pools that you can use the same team more than once.



I took Cincy and San Diego yesterday. I was switching back and forth between New England vs Arizona & NY Giants vs Tampa Bay. When Arizona got the 1st down, I heard the announcers say "that should do it." I didn't think to look at clock and calculate that they needed 1 more 1st down to lock it up and changed the station. I didn't find out until 2+ hours later how the game finished.

I don't know what would have been worse. Having to witness that live or seeing the score on the bottom of the tv after it all happened if New England had won.

The swings in Survivor Pool are tremendous. I've been luckier than unlucky in the bad call and wild finish department, but this would have been disastrous if both Tampa Bay and Arizona blew 11-points leads with the ball late in the 3rd quarter/early 4th when I picked neither of them in any of my pools

Saints vs sd week 5, @oak week 11 and vs TB week 15 are the only other viable options for them.

vs SD week 5 is not a good pick imo, especially with Mathews likely to be back by then

Posting to subscribe, in 2nd place in a work pool I am in of like 30 or so people, no eliminations when you pick the wrong team - just get 0 points for that week, and otherwise get # of points your winning team scored.

Took Houston then NYG. Thinking NO for Week 3, Baltimore Week 4, Bengals Week 5

ya it's not a good pick, but probably the 3rd best option of nor's remaining schedule.

I have Washington this week. I think everyone will be on NO, Pitt, and Chicago. Let's break it down.

New Orleans - They should beat KC very easily, however, NO defense is atrocious, they cannot stop the run, and I think KC can put together enough to keep this game close, and maybe pull it out.

Pitt - Oakland will win this game. This is a game that Oakland typically wins for whatever reason. East coast teams traveling to the west has not fared well in the past, and I could see Oakland pulling this game out.

Chicago - Jeff Fisher and that defense is flying to the ball. We all know Jay Cutler is just as likely to throw 4 picks as he is 4 TD's.


Washington should be able to take advantage of that terrible Cincy secondary. I could see it being a shoot out, but Wash will have the advantage when it comes to running the clock should they be ahead.

It's not like you have to take the Saints this season, I'm not sure if I will take them at all.

I took the Saints this week. I did not want to use the 49ers yet and I had picked Chicago in week 1 so decided to go with the Bears. About half of our remaining field was eliminated with the Patriots this week.

Can anyone comment on optimal strategy for someone in this league who loses a game? My fiancee and I have been taking a different team each week, and she took NE last week so got 0 points for that week. The way we are thinking about playing from this point onward is that I will take the biggest "lock" of the week and she will take the 2nd biggest lock, in hopes to gain ground when the "lock" I pick loses.

Just locked up the Red Wings...

Looking at Saints, Bears, possibly Boys.

You do realize that there are 17 weeks and you can't use teams twice right? I've won two eliminator pools (with out chopping) and by week 10 you are just hoping to win flips and run good until the end. You get a lot of the same picks at the beginning but by the end it's not like there is some obvious "safest" pick every week that hasn't been used already. Hell I've had times where I had to pick under dogs when you get in to the last few weeks. There is nothing wrong with the strategy of taking the biggest favorites while waiting for the field to thin out. It's an even better strategy to take now because more and more people are starting to go away from it. People are acting like taking a 65% favorite or less every week while praying that the 75%+ favorites lose every week is a superior strategy, It's not. Either way with these things you have to run good to win them. New England got unlucky and lost to Arizona that's just how it goes some times.

Sound kind of weird but I guess it could be interesting.

You have to matchup vs teams that give up a lot of points. Take New Orleans this week for both entries. Chiefs are terrible and Saints will score a boat load.

You're better of taking teams that are likely to be a high scoring team over a team that is favored the most but not likely to score a lot. Keep that in mind