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Old 09-30-2009, 12:04 AM   #76
DrunkIrish05
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by tiltymcfish0 View Post
I'm personally not a very good handicapper.

In my pool, most participants are indeed going with the best moneyline each week for their picks. Naturally, a huge part of deviating from that is obviously to achieve some separation.

I mostly agree with you here but the separation factor is so huge in these things imo, as is scheduling.

So yeah, pinny is typically as close to fair market as you could get but the market is also not perfectly efficient so even the pinny moneylines are off sometimes. Also, those moneylines are not made specifically for survivor pools which have those additional factors (how others pick and scheduling for example, as you mentioned above).
the pinny moneylines are not going to be systematically off though for home dogs and divisional games

imo, people just like using those stupid rules because it makes them feel like they have some "strategy" that makes them more likely to be successful than a monkey picking the biggest ML each week

these survivor pools are very similar to march madness pools in that the size of the pool really changes how you need to differentiate your picks and the degree you need to factor in the likely picks of others in your pool
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Old 09-30-2009, 12:17 AM   #77
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

splashpot I don't disagree but not sure why this road team thing sticks in your crawl so much.
In most pools there's more donks who disregard homefield altogether than those that actually use it as an absolute rule. The latter is less bad than the former imo though obv. a balance incorporating spreads is optimal. For some reason the Ram@9ers opening day game from ~5 days ago has always stuck with me; as in I was stunned how many people took a Mike Martz team on the road (don't remember the spread, think it was 7ish).

Last edited by MacGuyV; 09-30-2009 at 12:22 AM.
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Old 09-30-2009, 06:34 AM   #78
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
In order of biggest moneyline.

Chi
Hou
SF
NYG

If you want to avoid a team because they have a favorable schedule later, or because you want separation from everyone else in your league, fine. There is nothing wrong with those reasons. But if you are avoiding them because they are on the road or because they are playing a division rival, you are basically saying that the moneyline is wrong. And that all road and division game moneylines are wrong.

I certainly am not better at handicapping the lines than the linesmakers and sharps. Chances are, you aren't either. If you are, then you don't need my advice.
So are you taking one of those teams in your Pool this week?

The biggest moneyline favorite will almost always be the biggest pick in any Survivor Pool. That's a given.

I am not saying the bookmakers are wrong but for Survivor Pool purposes, not sure if you can use the moneylines as a deciding factor.
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Old 09-30-2009, 08:35 AM   #79
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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So are you taking one of those teams in your Pool this week?
I have Chicago penciled in right now. I'm of the belief that the NFL is unpredictable in the sense that power rankings now will look completely different compared to power rankings 6-7 weeks from now. Therefore, I'm not confident in my ability to look at future schedules and pick teams with favorable schedules.

Quote:
The biggest moneyline favorite will almost always be the biggest pick in any Survivor Pool. That's a given.
According to percentages that Yahoo posts, more people are on NYG and SF over Chi this week despite Chicago having the biggest moneyline. I assume that is the statistic for all picks in all Yahoo survivor leagues so far. I see no reason for my pool to not follow those percentages.

Quote:
I am not saying the bookmakers are wrong but for Survivor Pool purposes, not sure if you can use the moneylines as a deciding factor.
I use moneyline as the primary factor. I need a reason to overrule the moneyline if I'm not picking the team with the biggest moneyline. Favorable future schedule and separation are acceptable reasons. Being a road team is not an acceptable reason and has zero influence in my decision.
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:36 AM   #80
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

splashpot,

Not trying to be a dick question - Historically, how have you done in survivor pools?
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Old 09-30-2009, 10:41 AM   #81
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've only played the past 2 years. Pools with over 1000 entries. Never won.

I also didn't have the same strategy those times, especially the first time. I've learned from those experiences and morphed my strategy into what it is now.

Last edited by splashpot; 09-30-2009 at 10:50 AM.
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Old 09-30-2009, 01:00 PM   #82
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've been in two pools (07 and 08) and have never lost. Here are my picks for this year.

1 - Saints
2 - Redskins
3 - Eagles
4 - Giants
5 - Steelers
6 - Packers
7 - Colts
8 - Bears
9 - Seahawks
10 - Vikes
11 - Patriots
12 - Cowboys
13 - Panthers/Bengals
14 - Titans
15 - Chargers
16 - Cardinals
17 - Ravens
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Old 09-30-2009, 06:10 PM   #83
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by splashpot View Post


I use moneyline as the primary factor. I need a reason to overrule the moneyline if I'm not picking the team with the biggest moneyline. Favorable future schedule and separation are acceptable reasons. Being a road team is not an acceptable reason and has zero influence in my decision.
splash (or anyone else): Speaking of moneyline, is it simply the case that the bigger the moneyline is for a favorite, the more chances that team has to win the game (from the book's perspective).

Take your example of Chicago and Houston. I use Pinny which is widely regarded as one of the sharpest book in the biz. Right now, both favorites at home have a spread of -9.5 over the visiting teams but the moneyline on Chicago is -450 while that for Houston is -415.

Without getting in all the math, is it safe to say Pinny *thinks* Chicago has a better chance of winning the game than Houston? or it's not as cut-and-dried as it looks?

Let's take this example 1 step further: Come Sunday morning, you wake up and see that Chicago moneyline has dipped to -410 while Houston remains steady at -415. Is it a cause for concern for you and would you switch your pick to Houston?
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Old 09-30-2009, 06:58 PM   #84
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by canabiz View Post
Without getting in all the math, is it safe to say Pinny *thinks* Chicago has a better chance of winning the game than Houston? or it's not as cut-and-dried as it looks? Yeah, pretty much.

Let's take this example 1 step further: Come Sunday morning, you wake up and see that Chicago moneyline has dipped to -410 while Houston remains steady at -415. Is it a cause for concern for you and would you switch your pick to Houston?I don't pick based solely on moneylines, but yeah, there would probably be something that happened to make that change, which could be a late injury or the public betting heavily on the underdog.
See above.
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Old 10-03-2009, 05:50 PM   #85
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by KeepDaChange View Post
I've been in two pools (07 and 08) and have never lost. Here are my picks for this year.

1 - Saints
2 - Redskins
3 - Eagles
4 - Giants
5 - Steelers
6 - Packers
7 - Colts
8 - Bears
9 - Seahawks
10 - Vikes
11 - Patriots
12 - Cowboys
13 - Panthers/Bengals
14 - Titans
15 - Chargers
16 - Cardinals
17 - Ravens
wtf you have actually won by doing this before? mapping everything out early in the year? wow I have to admit I find that hard to believe

ahem, I think I might actually go with Indy this week instead of NYG like I had figured before... thoughts? Anyone have Indy left either or think it's better to save them?
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Old 10-05-2009, 11:59 PM   #86
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

What's the play this week?

NYG if still available? They don't look like they have another really soft game until week 15 against WAS. Also, about 30 percent of my pool already took them so that gives a little separation.

Other potential picks are DAL -9, PIT -10.5, BAL -9, but they have other potential spots to pick them.

DAL: SEA week 8, WAS week 11, OAK week 12
PIT: CLE week 6, @CLE week 14, OAK week 13
BAL: @CLE week 10, DET week 14, @OAK week 17

Thoughts?
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Old 10-06-2009, 12:31 AM   #87
canabiz
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Not many entries were eliminated from my Pools and that is to be expected. It's a marathon, not a sprint.

For Week 5, I am looking at the Giants and Eagles.
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Old 10-06-2009, 12:07 PM   #88
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

The Giants are a slam dunk here. The easiest games they have after this one are Arizona and Carolina at home and Wash on the road. I'd give any of those teams a lot better chance at an upset than the Raiders.
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Old 10-06-2009, 12:35 PM   #89
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I think the Eagles are the optimal play, only because I'd like to save NYG for Week 7. That week looks really tough and the Giants hosting Arizona that week appears to be the best option.

EDIT: nevermind. Pats have TB at neutral site.
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Old 10-06-2009, 01:22 PM   #90
KeepDaChange
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltymcfish0 View Post
wtf you have actually won by doing this before? mapping everything out early in the year? wow I have to admit I find that hard to believe

ahem, I think I might actually go with Indy this week instead of NYG like I had figured before... thoughts? Anyone have Indy left either or think it's better to save them?

Yes, this is the only way to do these pools. Like I said, I've been in two leagues and won them both. Why put yourself in a risky situation if you don't have to? Also notice how I mainly take home teams, that is another big key right there.
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Old 10-06-2009, 02:56 PM   #91
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm in 2 diff pools and have picked the same teams so far. Should I continue to do so or should I start picking diff teams? Better to diversify?
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Old 10-06-2009, 03:38 PM   #92
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Yes, this is the only way to do these pools. Like I said, I've been in two leagues and won them both.
No one cared the first time you told us that you have won two leagues, so you don't need to mention it again.
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Old 10-06-2009, 08:06 PM   #93
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by KeepDaChange View Post
Yes, this is the only way to do these pools. Like I said, I've been in two leagues and won them both. Why put yourself in a risky situation if you don't have to? Also notice how I mainly take home teams, that is another big key right there.
Well, this year you're out somewhere from week 13-16
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Old 10-06-2009, 08:51 PM   #94
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Giants if Eli's 100%, otherwise Philly for me.
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Old 10-07-2009, 01:05 AM   #95
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

can it be said the if eli's healthy and u still have the giants left, that they are the pick that must be made.....they play oakland and they will be no bigger favs for the rest of the year.

Correct?
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Old 10-07-2009, 01:10 AM   #96
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by KeepDaChange View Post
Yes, this is the only way to do these pools. Like I said, I've been in two leagues and won them both. Why put yourself in a risky situation if you don't have to? Also notice how I mainly take home teams, that is another big key right there.
Two leagues? Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.
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Old 10-07-2009, 08:29 AM   #97
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by scrskull9 View Post
I think the Eagles are the optimal play, only because I'd like to save NYG for Week 7. That week looks really tough and the Giants hosting Arizona that week appears to be the best option.

EDIT: nevermind. Pats have TB at neutral site.
Indy visits St Louis that week also.
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Old 10-11-2009, 07:29 PM   #98
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Another fairly quiet week on the upset front. I am looking at Green Bay and or the 'Burgh for Week 6.
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Old 10-11-2009, 08:02 PM   #99
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Cincy or Jacksonville for me.
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Old 10-12-2009, 01:00 AM   #100
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

i'm on green bay for next week so far.
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