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Old 09-26-2009, 01:12 PM   #51
Sir Poko
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I know it's obviously but as a person from Cleveland I can personally guarantee a victory for the Baltimore Ravens Sunday. We've had a lot of bad teams since we re-entered the league and this one ranks right up there. Brady Quinn looks lost and is afraid to throw past 8 yards. Baltimore will not only hold us under 10 points, but will likely score around 28 as well.
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Old 09-26-2009, 01:23 PM   #52
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Although I agree Ravens are near lock I'm still leaning towards the Cowboys. Cowboys don't seem to have any more great weeks where they will be one of the top favourites. Ravens have lots. Week 5, 8, 14, 15 look pretty good for them.

Is it silly 'gambling' with the Cowboys this week, instead of just taking the Ravens and figuring something out for future weeks? I don't know much about football so don't really know the Cowboy/Panthers matchup. I just read the Panthers will be playing hard because if they go 0-3 they won't be making the playoffs this year.
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Old 09-26-2009, 02:29 PM   #53
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Motivation this early in the season is virtually non-existent. Dallas doesnt want to be 1-2, Carolina doesnt want to be 0-3...

And trying to figure out the correct pick is like deciding whether to call/raise/fold in a poker hand. Evaluate the numbers, adjust for your opponent's tendencies....

How often will team A win their game (hint: just look at moneyline)?

How often will that team win future games (try to predict moneylines for future games)?

How likely are your opponents to pick that team (how many people already picked the team, how many people just pick the biggest favorite, how many people are trying to get separation with their picks)?

You want to get separation from the other picks, you want to survive, and you want to leave yourself good options in the weeks to come. Hopefully this helps...
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Old 09-27-2009, 12:35 AM   #54
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I am in a multiple entry allowable league where there is still 500 entries remaining (big bucks still remaining) I have 2 entries left and was wondering if putting one on the eagles was a good play here. The other would be Balt.

Last edited by tthree; 09-27-2009 at 12:36 AM. Reason: I could obv put both on the Ravens
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Old 09-27-2009, 07:28 AM   #55
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Motivation this early in the season is virtually non-existent. Dallas doesnt want to be 1-2, Carolina doesnt want to be 0-3...

And trying to figure out the correct pick is like deciding whether to call/raise/fold in a poker hand. Evaluate the numbers, adjust for your opponent's tendencies....

How often will team A win their game (hint: just look at moneyline)?

How often will that team win future games (try to predict moneylines for future games)?

How likely are your opponents to pick that team (how many people already picked the team, how many people just pick the biggest favorite, how many people are trying to get separation with their picks)?

You want to get separation from the other picks, you want to survive, and you want to leave yourself good options in the weeks to come. Hopefully this helps...
Good points but there is also the train of thought of picking the best team available on the board on any given week and worry what comes next on Tuesday. After all, the mojo for this pool is to survive and live another week.

I like to pick something that give me a reasonable chance of success, while not necessarily being the one that most people agree upon.
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Old 09-27-2009, 10:27 AM   #56
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Following the Survivor Pool thread criteria, there are only 2 plays that apply this week:

PHI over KC

NYJ over Tenn


and the Jets seem set up for a letdown this week, so I'd say PHI all day.
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Old 09-27-2009, 11:17 AM   #57
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by 27offsuit View Post
Following the Survivor Pool thread criteria, there are only 2 plays that apply this week:

PHI over KC

NYJ over Tenn


and the Jets seem set up for a letdown this week, so I'd say PHI all day.
Those criteria are crap.
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Old 09-27-2009, 11:33 AM   #58
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Those criteria are crap.
+1

Anyone who has Baltimore available this week and chooses something else....
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Old 09-27-2009, 11:37 AM   #59
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
Although I agree Ravens are near lock I'm still leaning towards the Cowboys. Cowboys don't seem to have any more great weeks where they will be one of the top favourites. Ravens have lots. Week 5, 8, 14, 15 look pretty good for them.

Is it silly 'gambling' with the Cowboys this week, instead of just taking the Ravens and figuring something out for future weeks? I don't know much about football so don't really know the Cowboy/Panthers matchup. I just read the Panthers will be playing hard because if they go 0-3 they won't be making the playoffs this year.
Other good games those weeks:
Week 5: PIT @ DET, OAK @ NYG
Week 8: CLE @ CHI, SEA @ DAL, OAK @ SDG
Week 14: PIT @ CLE, CIN @ MIN
Week 15: ARZ @ DET, CIN @ SDG

I think those are going to be decent selections those weeks. The thing is BAL is by far the best choice this week in terms of spread, I doubt those other weeks they are going to be 5 pts better than any other game. Also I think you may have Week 15 wrong, as CHI @ BAL isn't a great matchup imo.
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Old 09-27-2009, 11:44 AM   #60
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
Although I agree Ravens are near lock I'm still leaning towards the Cowboys. Cowboys don't seem to have any more great weeks where they will be one of the top favourites. Ravens have lots. Week 5, 8, 14, 15 look pretty good for them.

Is it silly 'gambling' with the Cowboys this week, instead of just taking the Ravens and figuring something out for future weeks? I don't know much about football so don't really know the Cowboy/Panthers matchup. I just read the Panthers will be playing hard because if they go 0-3 they won't be making the playoffs this year.
Cowboys will be decent favorites (pending injuries of course) Week 11 hosting the Skins. Same with Week 12 hosting the Raiders. Outside of Week 14 when they host the Lions I don't think there will be better spot to play the Ravens. Plus, they are healthy right now so I would think you would need to take that into consideration as well.
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Old 09-28-2009, 07:17 AM   #61
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Survived easily with the Ravens over the Browns. Still hate the idea of picking divisional games. Only a couple people out of my pool: Pittsburgh (2 out), Washington (1 out), Tennessee (1 out).
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Old 09-28-2009, 11:28 PM   #62
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

What you guys got for Week 4 ?

Looking at Indy and/or Chicago, still gathering more info.
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Old 09-29-2009, 12:01 AM   #63
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

49ers, bears, and texans all look promising for week 4.
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Old 09-29-2009, 12:13 AM   #64
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I have to admit I am a tad scared of the Lions after finally winning one. I know it's in Chicago but meh.

My first thought was SF for week 4

But the more I look at this - NYG over KC might be the way to go. I know it's a road team but KC just looks ****e and the Giants are rolling. They've also been good recently out of conference. Also, looking at their sked, I'm not feeling any inclination to save them for any of those other games. It's conceivable that KC could be their "easiest" game left.

I took Baltimore this week, have burned Saints week one, Washington in week two. Not sure how many of you even have NYG available still.
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Old 09-29-2009, 12:50 AM   #65
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

tilty it looks like NYG are going to be the widest spread vs oakland next week. only other good game is pit @ det but i think spread will be wider in NYG and you can save PIT for their home game vs CLE vs OAK or @ KC

Last edited by vetiver; 09-29-2009 at 12:59 AM.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:30 AM   #66
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm thinking SF this week also. I know Gore will be out but the backup Coffee should easily carry the load. Still don't like road teams even with NYG going to crappy KC. Looking at SF's schedule I can't see a much better time to take them than now (other than a week 16 home game vs Det, but who knows how things will stand in 12 weeks). Also have to consider how SF will play after they had a win stolen away by Wrangler Jeans last week.

I WANT WINNERS. I WANT PLAYERS THAT WANNA WIN.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:59 AM   #67
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

How about avoiding teams with animal mascots? Because that rule makes just as much sense as avoiding road teams or divisional teams.
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Old 09-29-2009, 12:18 PM   #68
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
How about avoiding teams with animal mascots? Because that rule makes just as much sense as avoiding road teams or divisional teams.
haha

but is there merit to sometimes avoiding the road favs in certain divisional games ie combine the two rules?
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Old 09-29-2009, 05:53 PM   #69
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by hosstito View Post
49ers, bears, and texans all look promising for week 4.
I originally liked the Texans too until really thought about the matchups and looked at their game from last year. Won't touch the Texans on this game.
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Old 09-29-2009, 05:59 PM   #70
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I bought 2 picks in a league this year. I'm probably taking GMen as the safe pick. Bowe is out and recently the Giants have an amazing road record. This will be the pick that most people take though. With my second pick I'll take them again against the Raiders.

I can't decide this week between Indy, SF, or Chi. Half tempted to take Cincy even on the road. I'll decide later this week once I try to look ahead a few weeks.
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Old 09-29-2009, 06:06 PM   #71
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Don't be surprised if both the Giants and Cowboys lose straight up this week. Lots of situational and even statistical factors favoring the dogs which I won't dwell too much into.

I am going with Baltimore and Philly this week for my entries. Cleveland is rotten and K.C. is not far behind. I think Philly is gunning for a W heading into the bye week and let McNabb heal and recover before the stretch run.
I agree that I was scared a little bit about the Cowboys game, even though I took them with one of my two picks to get them out of the way, but please dwell into what situational or statistical factors favored the Bucs against the GMen. I'm not trying to be a dick but I only saw that maybe the Bucs had physical corners that would jam the Giants receivers. What else?
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Old 09-29-2009, 06:51 PM   #72
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
How about avoiding teams with animal mascots? Because that rule makes just as much sense as avoiding road teams or divisional teams.
What do you think is the best pick this weekend?
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Old 09-29-2009, 06:52 PM   #73
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I agree that I was scared a little bit about the Cowboys game, even though I took them with one of my two picks to get them out of the way, but please dwell into what situational or statistical factors favored the Bucs against the GMen. I'm not trying to be a dick but I only saw that maybe the Bucs had physical corners that would jam the Giants receivers. What else?
storm, it's all waters under the bridge now but i explained why I didn't want to take the G-men this past weekend in another post.

Happy to move on and that's all it matters.
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Old 09-29-2009, 09:35 PM   #74
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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What do you think is the best pick this weekend?
In order of biggest moneyline.

Chi
Hou
SF
NYG

If you want to avoid a team because they have a favorable schedule later, or because you want separation from everyone else in your league, fine. There is nothing wrong with those reasons. But if you are avoiding them because they are on the road or because they are playing a division rival, you are basically saying that the moneyline is wrong. And that all road and division game moneylines are wrong.

I certainly am not better at handicapping the lines than the linesmakers and sharps. Chances are, you aren't either. If you are, then you don't need my advice.

Last edited by splashpot; 09-29-2009 at 09:40 PM.
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Old 09-29-2009, 11:32 PM   #75
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
In order of biggest moneyline.

Chi
Hou
SF
NYG

If you want to avoid a team because they have a favorable schedule later, or because you want separation from everyone else in your league, fine. There is nothing wrong with those reasons. But if you are avoiding them because they are on the road or because they are playing a division rival, you are basically saying that the moneyline is wrong. And that all road and division game moneylines are wrong.

I certainly am not better at handicapping the lines than the linesmakers and sharps. Chances are, you aren't either. If you are, then you don't need my advice.
I'm personally not a very good handicapper.

In my pool, most participants are indeed going with the best moneyline each week for their picks. Naturally, a huge part of deviating from that is obviously to achieve some separation.

I mostly agree with you here but the separation factor is so huge in these things imo, as is scheduling.

So yeah, pinny is typically as close to fair market as you could get but the market is also not perfectly efficient so even the pinny moneylines are off sometimes. Also, those moneylines are not made specifically for survivor pools which have those additional factors (how others pick and scheduling for example, as you mentioned above).
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