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11-20-2023 , 08:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
Congrats on the win in the small pool!
Thanks! It's my first win and farthest I've gotten in my short history of playing Survivor.
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11-20-2023 , 11:56 AM
Onto Week 12, where my largest pool, is now down to 485 entries.

We need to make a double pick, leaning toward Indianapolis and Minnesota. Other options are New England (see Belchick v. Rookie QB's imagine the Pats will have scheme to neutralize Saquaon Barkley and Tennessee (they have looked awful but are at home against a Panther team that might have thrown in the towel, plus Bryce Young was beaten up by Dallas and might not be fully recovered

Anyway, let me know why I'm wrong and what people of the interwebz have to say....


Teams taken;

Dallas, WSH BUF SF DEN NYJ MIA CLE DET NOR CHI
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11-20-2023 , 04:38 PM
Congrats cokeboy!

DuckU,

I would likely take KC as one of my picks. It's very difficult to pick two teams that will be under -200 favorites and win both. KC will also very likely give you a good degree of isolation at this point. I suspect Minnesota is going to be the most popular pick in surrivor pools this week due to lack of high-value options for the masses. Tennessee is going to have a higher % than I'd be comfortable with due to them playing Carolina.

I have already used Dallas, so I'm heavily leaning Detroit, who are a solid -360 or so at the moment. The Lions, Miami, SF, and Philadelphia are my highest value teams remaining. Out of the 800+ still in my pool, I don't think more than 15% have Detroit available.
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11-20-2023 , 10:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
Onto Week 12, where my largest pool, is now down to 485 entries.

We need to make a double pick, leaning toward Indianapolis and Minnesota. Other options are New England (see Belchick v. Rookie QB's imagine the Pats will have scheme to neutralize Saquaon Barkley and Tennessee (they have looked awful but are at home against a Panther team that might have thrown in the towel, plus Bryce Young was beaten up by Dallas and might not be fully recovered

Anyway, let me know why I'm wrong and what people of the interwebz have to say....


Teams taken;

Dallas, WSH BUF SF DEN NYJ MIA CLE DET NOR CHI
Who did you take in 11?
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11-20-2023 , 11:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
Who did you take in 11?
Based on his previous post, he took dallas in week 11.
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11-20-2023 , 11:17 PM
Large pool. 8,064 started, 151 remaining. Free entry, prize is a pair of tickets to the nfl championship game valued up to $5k.

So far I've used WAS, NYG, KC, SF, DET, LAR, SEA, BAL/LAC (double pick in week 8), CLE, DAL, JAC.

Double picks again in week 12, then single picks the rest of the way. If more than 1 entry remains after week 18, the remaining entrants guess the total points scored in wildcard weekend games. Closest to the total wins.

Week 12 leans: Miami and Minnesota.
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11-20-2023 , 11:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
Who did you take in 11?
I chickened out on Jacksonville or Houston and took Dallas in Week 11.

I was saving Kansas City for when they play New England, Week 15, but I'm re-considering them for Week 12.
90 out of 485 remaining entries have Kansas City left as an option.

Entries remaining with following option
Titans 485/485
Vikings 461/485
Colts 471/485
Chiefs 90/485
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11-21-2023 , 01:07 AM
Hi all, I'm still in all of DraftKings survivors ($100 main event x 1, $10 x 3, and $1 x 1)

Teams taken so far: WAS, NYG, BUF, KC, DET, LAR, SEA, BAL, CLE, DAL, HOU

I have the same picks across all 3 pools. Should I sacrifice in week 13 or hold until final week?

Here is my plan for weeks 12 - 18. If you see any glaring holes, please let me know your thoughts!

Week 12 Miami (Miami @ NYJ)
Week 13 LAC (LAC @ NE) or PIT (ARI @ PIT)?
Week 14 NO (CAR @ NO)
Week 15 SF (SF @ ARI)
Week 16 PHI (NYG @ PHI)
Week 17 JAX (CAR @ JAX)
Week 18 GB (CHI @ GB) or NO (ATL @ NO)?
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11-22-2023 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
I chickened out on Jacksonville or Houston and took Dallas in Week 11.

I was saving Kansas City for when they play New England, Week 15, but I'm re-considering them for Week 12.
90 out of 485 remaining entries have Kansas City left as an option.

Entries remaining with following option
Titans 485/485
Vikings 461/485
Colts 471/485
Chiefs 90/485
My reading comprehension is terrible. I thought you had 2x in 11 as well. I would've taken Houston probably myself in that format
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11-22-2023 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
I chickened out on Jacksonville or Houston and took Dallas in Week 11.

I was saving Kansas City for when they play New England, Week 15, but I'm re-considering them for Week 12.
90 out of 485 remaining entries have Kansas City left as an option.

Entries remaining with following option
Titans 485/485
Vikings 461/485
Colts 471/485
Chiefs 90/485

You have 2x in 12 right? If yes...

12 - Kansas City & Indianapolis
13 - Re-evaluate after this week
14 - Baltimore
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11-22-2023 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RidePolaris
Hi all, I'm still in all of DraftKings survivors ($100 main event x 1, $10 x 3, and $1 x 1)

Teams taken so far: WAS, NYG, BUF, KC, DET, LAR, SEA, BAL, CLE, DAL, HOU

I have the same picks across all 3 pools. Should I sacrifice in week 13 or hold until final week?

Here is my plan for weeks 12 - 18. If you see any glaring holes, please let me know your thoughts!

Week 12 Miami (Miami @ NYJ)
Week 13 LAC (LAC @ NE) or PIT (ARI @ PIT)?
Week 14 NO (CAR @ NO)
Week 15 SF (SF @ ARI)
Week 16 PHI (NYG @ PHI)
Week 17 JAX (CAR @ JAX)
Week 18 GB (CHI @ GB) or NO (ATL @ NO)?
If you don't have double picks, I don't think mapping out the season is optimal. A QB injury can change everything. Week 18 will involve starters being rested. I'd look at the remaining pick % for each team and try to avoid the sheep picks. You have a lot of high-value teams left. I'm not sure about the percentages, but if you think a large majority will be on LAC in week 13, you may wanna save Miami and find an alternative for week 12. But the Sunday slate this week is really tough.

DuckU,

In your spot, I'd take KC and Tennessee, as much as I hate the Titans pick. They should be chosen at least a bit less than the Vikings. And Carolina is no doubt the worst team. That being said, check and see if both of Carolina's starting CB get back. If so, re-evaluate and hammer the under on that game lol.

I'll be on Detroit!
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11-23-2023 , 03:01 PM
Thanks HenrySugar and BraveJayHawk.

I'm leaning toward Indianapolis and Tennessee.

I'm a little concerned about Kansas City how they haven't scored in 2nd half two games in a row.
I'd prefer to take them at home either week 14 v Buffalo or 16 v. LV Raiders.
Problem is need to make it to Week 14!

68 entries out of 485 are on Detroit! There could be some early carnage!
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11-23-2023 , 04:12 PM
Well that's it for me. Take down your pools boys!
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11-23-2023 , 05:05 PM
Tough luck there. Thanks for the insight along the way!
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11-24-2023 , 09:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cokeboy99
Large pool. 8,064 started, 151 remaining. Free entry, prize is a pair of tickets to the nfl championship game valued up to $5k.

So far I've used WAS, NYG, KC, SF, DET, LAR, SEA, BAL/LAC (double pick in week 8), CLE, DAL, JAC.

Double picks again in week 12, then single picks the rest of the way. If more than 1 entry remains after week 18, the remaining entrants guess the total points scored in wildcard weekend games. Closest to the total wins.

Week 12 leans: Miami and Minnesota.
Miami got the W. Now to wait for Minnesota on Monday night.
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11-25-2023 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cokeboy99
Miami got the W. Now to wait for Minnesota on Monday night.
I had Miami and Minnesota in my pools this week. Decided to switch from Minnesota to Tennessee. On to week 13 with Miami; well see how Tennessee goes..

For week 13, I was undecided between:

Ari @ Pit (Pit)
Car @ TB (TB)
LAC @ NE (LAC)

Think I'm going with LAC at -4. I see Ari/Pit as a near flip with Murray back and I have trust issues with TB against the worst team in football.
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11-25-2023 , 04:25 PM
I'm holding with Minnesota as my 2nd pick in the double pick pool. Hoping for the best. Good luck to you!
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11-26-2023 , 08:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar
If you don't have double picks, I don't think mapping out the season is optimal. A QB injury can change everything. Week 18 will involve starters being rested. I'd look at the remaining pick % for each team and try to avoid the sheep picks. You have a lot of high-value teams left. I'm not sure about the percentages, but if you think a large majority will be on LAC in week 13, you may wanna save Miami and find an alternative for week 12. But the Sunday slate this week is really tough.

DuckU,

In your spot, I'd take KC and Tennessee, as much as I hate the Titans pick. They should be chosen at least a bit less than the Vikings. And Carolina is no doubt the worst team. That being said, check and see if both of Carolina's starting CB get back. If so, re-evaluate and hammer the under on that game lol.

I'll be on Detroit!
Hey Henry_Sugar,

After reading your post and then this in the LV Review Journal....

Buccaneers (4-6) at Colts (5-5). Time: 10 a.m. Line/total: Colts -2, 44
Analysis: When coming off two consecutive wins, the Colts are 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS, including 0-9 ATS at home. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS their last seven games against teams coming off a bye week and are 4-0-2 ATS their last six games against AFC South opponents. The wrong team is favored in this game.


I switched to Kansas City and Tennessee...I wanted to puke on my shoes when Raiders went up 14-0 and KC looked awful in first quarter...

Anyway, survived another week....Will be rooting for Bears on Monday night...

Last edited by DuckU; 11-26-2023 at 08:15 PM.
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11-26-2023 , 10:06 PM
Switched from Titans to Pats this morning w 42/938 remaining
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11-27-2023 , 03:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckU
Hey Henry_Sugar,

After reading your post and then this in the LV Review Journal....

Buccaneers (4-6) at Colts (5-5). Time: 10 a.m. Line/total: Colts -2, 44
Analysis: When coming off two consecutive wins, the Colts are 5-12 SU and 3-14 ATS, including 0-9 ATS at home. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS their last seven games against teams coming off a bye week and are 4-0-2 ATS their last six games against AFC South opponents. The wrong team is favored in this game.


I switched to Kansas City and Tennessee...I wanted to puke on my shoes when Raiders went up 14-0 and KC looked awful in first quarter...

Anyway, survived another week....Will be rooting for Bears on Monday night...
Congrats. Getting through having to hit 2x is always difficult.

This was a banner week for the favorites. If Minnesota covers tonight, they will have gone 13-2-1 (or 13-3 if you had Buffalo+3.5). God I'm so mad I took Detroit.
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11-28-2023 , 01:11 AM
On to week 13 with my Miami and Tenn wins (separate pools)
620 left in DK's $100 main event out of 14,979 starters
1,114 left in DK's $10 out of 40,468

Here's who I'm going with down the homestretch:

Week 13 LAC over NE -6.5 (@NE)
Week 14 PIT over NE -5 (@PIT)
Week 15 NO over NYG -11 (@NO)
Week 16 PHI over NYG -18.5 (@PHI)
Week 17 JAX over CAR -9.5 (@JAX)
Week 18 SF over LAR -9.5 (@SF)

Detroit and SF will be contesting for 2nd seed. Depending on how weeks 13 - 15 go, SF may be resting starters in week 18 so I may need to move them up. We'll see..
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11-28-2023 , 08:56 AM
And I'm out of my free pool. Lost with Minnesota. Only 54 entries survived to week 13. They have single picks the rest of the way. I almost awotched to Tennessee as my 2nd pick. Chicago is slowly improving on defense.

Oh well, I've never made it this far, and i outlasted 7900+ entries. Not terrible overall.

Good luck to all who remain!
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11-28-2023 , 11:36 AM
Overall Through Week 12
Week 1 Entries, 9351
Eliminated, 9188
Survivors, 163

Teams Taken: KC, TEN, WSH, BUF, SF, DEN, NYJ, MIA, CLE, DET, NOR, CHI, DAL

Note: Week 12 was a 2x pick,

Rules for double picks moving forward:

Starting in Week 12, all remaining entries will have to pick 2 teams per week if the number of remaining entries is greater than or equal to than the number next to each week below:

Week 12 >= 300
Week 13 >= 200
Week 14 >= 100
Week 15 >= 50
Week 16 >= 25
Week 17 >= 10
Week 18 >= 5

So, no 2x pick in Week 13

Options for Week 13: Jacksonville, Tampa, & LA Rams, Pittsburgh

Entries with following option remaining:
Jacksonville 91/163
Tampa 157/163
LA Rams 102/163
Pittsburgh. 126/163

Good people of TwoPlusTwo what are your thoughts...

Thanks in advance....
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11-28-2023 , 03:44 PM
how many can still use Miami, Dallas, and the Chargers?

In your position, I would fade Tampa Bay. And I like Pittsburgh more in week 14 vs New England if I were to ever use them.

Jax is about -400 so a very solid choice. But they will also be the most chosen team, possibly 40% depending on how many can still take Dall, LAC, Mia.

It's risky YOLO, but Houston is one I like in week 13. Denver is getting by with insane positive turnover margin. That game has a pretty high total, 47. I don't envision Denver winning if it's high-scoring.

How many players can still use Baltimore? That's your most high-value team left, along with Phila. Hopefully not too many. That would give you an advantage in week 14 (even though the Rams are not bad, the look ahead is Baltimore-7.5). I presume most have already used Miami, SF, and NO. So in week 14, most of the pool will be struggling, especially if it's 2x picks. I like your position should you get to week 14. So I'd lean Jacksonville this week as the safe (albeit sheep pick) one with Houston as the YOLO iso pick.
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11-28-2023 , 04:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar
how many can still use Miami, Dallas, and the Chargers?

In your position, I would fade Tampa Bay. And I like Pittsburgh more in week 14 vs New England if I were to ever use them.

Jax is about -400 so a very solid choice. But they will also be the most chosen team, possibly 40% depending on how many can still take Dall, LAC, Mia.

It's risky YOLO, but Houston is one I like in week 13. Denver is getting by with insane positive turnover margin. That game has a pretty high total, 47. I don't envision Denver winning if it's high-scoring.

How many players can still use Baltimore? That's your most high-value team left, along with Phila. Hopefully not too many. That would give you an advantage in week 14 (even though the Rams are not bad, the look ahead is Baltimore-7.5). I presume most have already used Miami, SF, and NO. So in week 14, most of the pool will be struggling, especially if it's 2x picks. I like your position should you get to week 14. So I'd lean Jacksonville this week as the safe (albeit sheep pick) one with Houston as the YOLO iso pick.
Survivors Who Haven't Picked Team
Cowboys. 2
Dolphins 2
Chiefs 7
Seahawks 10
Ravens 50
Chargers 75
Jags 91
Rams 102
Steelers 126
Bucs. 157

Starting to lean Jags, mostly due to reports of Baker Mayfield injured ankle and probability he won't be practicing. Although, I really like picking against teams that are the road two weeks in row, like Panthers and Browns this week...

Last edited by DuckU; 11-28-2023 at 04:41 PM.
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