NYG or CHI are speaking to me.

Think I'm gonna go mostly Cincy and hope they don't start 0-3...NYG and Chi are a little thin for my blood, just don't think you have to go that far off the board.

Good to have a not heart attack inducing win with the 49ers after barely moving on with the saints week 1. Next week looks to have even lower spreads than week 1. I will have to see exact popularities but it seems quite likely I’ll be going CLE in week 3.

I often find that noise-cancelling airpods can be quite effective in situations like this

Another week of rolling the dice. I'll be taking Seattle. Atlanta back to back west coast games. Playing Seattle really rough. Just having a hard time getting past Geno Smith at QB for Seattle.

I think Minnesota bounces back at home v. Detroit. Cleveland is another option on Thursday night.

I flipped a coin between ATL and SEA

What are the field sizes some of you guys are in? Going Chicago, Seattle or NYG just seems so unnecessary unless it is like 500+ people

Field started with over 9300 entries, we are down to 2600 after two weeks!

I'm inclined to fade Chicago. Also a bit concerned about Hebert injury so avoiding Chargers as well.

9300 wow, think you need double pick weeks for that but this year teams are getting upset fast

Yes, double picks start I think week 12.. Past few years it's been chopped up around 8 to 12 ways...

double picks go from 12 to the end?

in a 14k person pool, with 4k left, double picks week 13 and on

i have 10 entries left

browns, im all in.

Browns my favorite pick this week as well

Do you find Thursday to be under picked because it creeps up on people? Unless it is an obvious pick like Panthers vs Texans last year when Texans had Tyrod out and Mills was considered awful. Still going mostly Cincy, Cle a little too gross for my blood.

Oh no, I'm on Brownies too!

Yes Double pIcks from Week 12 onward, based on number of entries remaining...

Also, I'm putting a couple of my picks on Seattle too. One pick on Minnesota.. LFG

What were the field sizes you took them in?

I took them in 1 with about 200 people left

On CLE. I ain't worried.

I am, they suck lol

I can't believe we got away with playing a #divisionalgame. Not to mention one in #badweather. I was also once told to avoid teams with black quarterbacks. However, somehow the team with decent ev and low fv wins. Must be just lucky I guess.

And a Thursday nighter. I was told those have lots of variance.

Charger line moving in JVille direction, probably decent chance Herbert misses.

Would've taken Browns in more if I knew that

Nice to win on Cincy

Question....What strategy do you use when the field massively dwindles down to under 10? You can't really estimate pick percentage at that point since it is just a few people. And FV doesn't matter that much beyond a month since the thing is likely going to be over sooner than later. I am helping a friend in a work league that had 50 people and is down to 7. Used NO/SF/Cincy.

I disagree with your premise. I think it is probably easy to estimate pick percentage when the pool is down to a few people, although obviously the later on the better. Take a shot and eyeball the fields pick history, who they have left, and I think you will find it easier than you think. Then you can strategize your picks appropriately. Also, yes, FV does not matter as much, but is still a factor.

Use week 7 as an example. Lets say it gets there and you were between Denver and someone else. If you see that most of your pool took Denver in week 2, then you can infer that they will "probably" pick lac/den/cin so you could pick Den with good leverage. But if you saw, lets say, that they all took LAC in week 4 or whatever, then you could take LAC in week 7 etc. This type of analysis is a little easier to do without software if you have just a few people left. The need to be right is pretty dramatic, as when you are down to just 5 or so people, the diff between just 1 misprojected ownership can result in making an extremely big ev mistake.

SEPAKING OF WHICH----WTF THE 100 MBTC BUYIN ON NITRO IS DOWN TO 7 LFG