NFL Survivor Picks - Page 250 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

This is where I'm at...

FADE - San Francisco, LAR
SAVE - Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Buffalo
LOL - Baltimore, Green Bay

That leaves Carolina, Minnesota, Atlanta, Denver, Jacksonville

No reason to take New England, Seattle or Tennessee either as they have much better spots and you're better off choosing from the list above.

I'll probably cave and take some LAR and/or San Francisco. I'll be on ZERO Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Buffalo.

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09-08-2021 , 07:32 PM

#6228

cambo47

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 138

Sorry for the late post, my password reset kept going to spam.

Nitrogen #5175390

I’m going all CAR except my 48 person pool where I’m deciding between LAR and SF

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09-08-2021 , 11:17 PM

#6229

larso

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2019 Posts: 6

Nitrogen: 335221

Thanks!

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09-09-2021 , 09:14 AM

#6230

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

I’ve played many times, but playing my first time for highish stakes this year. I’m trying to wrap my head around separation/winprobability/future value.

Tampa has one of the highest future values in the league. Do we worry about that in week 1 though? Do we really care about separation in week 1? Do your answers change if it’s a large pool, winner take all? Someone tell me why https://www.survivorgrid.com/ is wrong and Tampa isn’t the highest EV play?

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09-09-2021 , 12:22 PM

#6231

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by atrainpsu

Yes, but discount for the increased uncertainty. Yes. No. They're not wrong; Tampa is the highest EV play if you're not considering future value.

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09-09-2021 , 01:29 PM

#6232

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

I think people tend to stay away from the TNF game, so that's working in your favor if you take TB.

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09-09-2021 , 01:51 PM

#6233

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Yes, but discount for the increased uncertainty. Yes. No. They're not wrong; Tampa is the highest EV play if you're not considering future value.

Thanks.
Seems like the more you know, the more you realize you dont know.

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09-09-2021 , 01:56 PM

#6234

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

I think people tend to stay away from the TNF game, so that's working in your favor if you take TB.

I expect a lot more entries between now and Sunday so even though they adjust for Thursday pick%, I would guess the pick % would be lower than projected.

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09-09-2021 , 03:38 PM

#6235

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Buccaneers 15.5% picked in $30 one that I play that locked earlier today. Over 3,000 entries

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09-09-2021 , 05:21 PM

#6236

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

3 bullets in a large pool that will go the distance.

JAX-CAR-ATL...not one of these picks strike any confidence in me haha

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09-09-2021 , 08:23 PM

#6237

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Nitrogen locked early for the game today. Beware for Sunday...

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09-09-2021 , 08:24 PM

#6238

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Nitrogen also isn't showing Thursday picks as soon as the game starts anymore? Wtf is happening.

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09-09-2021 , 08:47 PM

#6239

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

I guess they aren't going to show the picks until everything closes since people can change their picks now. I'm gonna miss the sweat on Thursdays but oh well.

Still annoyed about Tampa locking early though I was trying to pick them at 8:05 p.m. eastern.

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09-10-2021 , 07:06 AM

#6240

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Had about 50% of $435438563285 worth of entries on TB. Never in doubt....what a sick sport lol.

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09-10-2021 , 07:47 AM

#6241

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,728

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

Nitrogen also isn't showing Thursday picks as soon as the game starts anymore? Wtf is happening.

Are you sure? You gotta click through each person's entry to see them. At least this is how it used to be.

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09-10-2021 , 07:47 AM

#6242

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,728

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin

You can change your pick on Nitrogen now?

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09-10-2021 , 11:31 AM

#6243

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Used up 3/8 entries on TB last night. Tough victory, but we'll take it.

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09-10-2021 , 11:57 AM

#6244

gushman

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 18

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

You can change your pick on Nitrogen now?

Yes, new rule as of this year. Definitely takes some of the pressure off of the multi-thousand dollar misclick.

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09-10-2021 , 12:43 PM

#6245

anthai.lu

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 475

Starting to sour on ATL. Looking at their defense on paper, it looks pretty atrocious outside of Jarrett/Jones.

Also, Eagles still pretty strong up front.

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09-10-2021 , 02:20 PM

#6246

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Are you sure? You gotta click through each person's entry to see them. At least this is how it used to be.

Yes, Kevin confirmed they made this change since people can change picks now.

He did not give me any answer on why it locked early. Looking at the rules it says they go off the nfl.com schedule (?) so I can only presume this game was originally listed to kickoff at 8:00 or 8:05.

I would have been miserable last night with the sweat but now I’m just annoyed.

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09-10-2021 , 03:35 PM

#6247

52352

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2019 Posts: 46

Do you guys think most people who are planning on joining already have or do you think we'll see a material increase in entries between now and Monday? I don't remember how big the nitro pools were last year

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09-10-2021 , 05:15 PM

#6248

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,728

Quote:

Originally Posted by 52352

They tend to grow. They would have grown substantially more if TB lost. Also you can join right up until MNF so if heavily picked favorites lose on Sunday, you'll see more and more people joining later.

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09-10-2021 , 08:59 PM

#6249

cambo47

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 138

Jayhawk, are you done adding entries to the nitro? No worries if so, I posted late, but wanted to know if I should keep checking as each time I check is a chance I’ll second guess and change my Car locks. Good luck either way!