tis tis tis on taking Seattle in 5.

Save Green Bay till 15 is almost mandatory. It'll be a highly separated pick.

Need to have at least Baltimore or Kansas City for 16/17. Baltimore & Green Bay in 15 if it's 2x would be very strong.

In this format, Tennessee is going to be very chalk if 2x are in play in 14 & 15. Using them in 13 is certainly an option. Doing so allows you to have both Baltimore and Kansas City for 15-17.

Yes, you'll be increasing your chances of losing this week, but you're setting yourself up for a very strong finish. Minnesota will be chalky in 13, but so will Las Vegas (which you don't have)

13. Minnesota, Tennessee
14. Arizona, Carolina, San Francisco (alphabetical order)
15. Green Bay (Arizona, Buffalo)
16/17. Baltimore, Kansas City

Houston in 16 if 2x. Baltimore can also be used as part of 2x in 15

I hear you but it just seems so wreckless to me to take the Titans this week when they are playing the worst team in football next week and a team that appears checked out in week 15. I would say that they can easily lose this week (it's going to be an ultra tight game) versus I would be shocked if they lose in weeks 14 or 15.

Look, I get the whole separation thing but how do you differentiate being smart about pool separation versus preserving your chances of surviving? If I were to take the Packers in place of the Titans this week it wouldn't kill my chances of getting to the end. I'd save the Chiefs and go Packers/Vikings along with the other teams available mentioned above.

Put it another way. My friend took the Ravens against the Titans a few weeks back since he wanted to separate and knew they would be chalky in week 15. He got eliminated because they played a very solid team.

Isn't that what we are doing this week with the Titans?

I advanced double picks in week 12 using NO/NYG.

Another week of double picks and looks like I will go MIN/LV...which are the two chalkiest picks.

I know people are saying to fade LV but can I really though if we have double picks the rest of the way? Running out of teams to use and this seems like the best spot to take them as they have no future value whatsoever. About 175 teams remaining out of 6K.

Still have SEA/BAL/LAR/IND/TEN so trying to save those teams for weeks 15-17 if I can move on. Don't have KC any longer though.

The more I think about it, might even fade the Raiders this week depending on the injury report. If Josh Jacobs doesn't play and the Jets get back some O-linemen back, not feeling great about that game. Raiders have to fly back to the east coast as well and have historically looked bad.

Titans are -250
Las Vegas is -370

If Las Vegas loses, over half the pool will be eliminated because it's 2x. Tennessee will be far less picked - maybe 10%?

The reason I like taking them this week for your pool is that you have 2x the rest of the way and will have to take in 14 or 15. They'll be far more picked in those weeks. You'll likely want to FADE them anyway. That would certainly be the +EV play.

Here's an example why you make plays like this. I have a pool that is 2x in 5 & 10. If there's a certain amount of players left, conditional 2x triggers in 12 - 15.

Going into 10, we had a lot of people left. I wanted 2x to trigger in 12. I went with Pittsburgh and Detroit. Detroit was -3 vs Washington. If Green Bay or New Orleans lost, we wouldn't have 2x in 12, but I wouldn't care because it'd wipe out a lot of people.

245/324 took Green Bay
198/324 took New Orleans

They both won and both my teams won. Most players advance to 11. Now I knew I was going to take LAC in 11 when I decided on my 10 picks. If LAC won, we would 100% have 2x in 12 or I'd be out.

We get to 12. 190 players are remaining. We have 2x picks. 6 people have Green Bay available. I'm one of them. This worked out perfectly. I paired them with NYG (which was dumb - I should've been more aggressive and taken Las Vegas or Minnesota).

121/190 took NYG
108/190 took Cleveland

If Cleveland and Seattle had lost (and my teams won), we'd been down to a couple dozen left. These are the spots you dream of in Survivor. I'll admit I didn't maximize the opportunity and wimped out by taking NYG.

Long post. Basically, think of it analytically but it's ok to go with some feel play - just have a good reason for it.

Can’t decide between Mia and Sea this week, leaning Mia. Any reason to roll w Sea? Seems like they’ll be very popular next week

I am deciding between the Vikings and the Raiders. Leaning towards the Vikings

Miami & Green Bay / Pittsburgh (unless you need them for 15) are the best picks this week. Seattle is going to be a slam dunk pick in 14 - doesn't matter as much how highly picked they are when they're close to 17 points favorites

This is me. FADING MIN

My picks this week are all over the place and completely dependent on the pool, and what I and other people have left.

I am in a few double pickers where I am playing zero lv/minn, playing mia where available, and then making some tough choices between GB/KC/PITT for a second pick, which gives up FV, or maybe going with the hyper aggro Bears, which is certainly risky now, but stockpiles the above better teams for future double pick attacks.

In other pools I am following the chalk path I carved out for myself (at least for now), which involves gb or mia IN 13,/14 sea/ 15 rams/16 balt/etc----which will end up chopping multiways with plenty of other good players who have this left--but will end up making leverage pivots if/once they get low--

In others which are down to 10 people or less, I am making strictly pot odds/leverage plays knowing with a decent amount of certainty where others will be picking.

Net net, if you have them available, Mia rates to be the best overall play, across most pools,as they have good ev and low fv, but all pools are different, your mileage may vary etc.

LFG

3 people left in mine, all used KC, 1 has already used Miami, thinking that has to be the play for me (highest win prob. and guarantees that all 3 of us don't pick the same team). 3rd player has pretty closely matched my selections but hoping he goes LV or MIN.

Trying to full FADE Las Vegas & Minnesota, but it'll require I go San Francisco & Tennessee in a pool with 2x picks this week. If Las Vegas OR Minnesota loses, we'll likely get under the threshold needed to single pick in 14. I'll be in very good shape if that were to happen.

In a Midseason 2x every week pool. 44 left. I have 3 entries left. (2) have 2. Everyone else has 1. Probably going to box Miami with Chicago, Las Vegas & Minnesota in that one.

Outside those, I have 0 LV or MIN.

This is what I'll have this week.

Miami >>>>> Green Bay >>> Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tennessee (alphabetical)

Still working on how I'm going to mix those last 4 teams in

Here's the EV chart if they go MIA and someone else. Here I chose MIN, but Miami is still pretty high on the chart.



Here's no MIA picked by your opponents



You're giving up a lot of EV if you don't take MIA and the other 2 don't either. Whereas if the 1 guy does take MIA, it's still not that bad a pick for you either.

Seattle is the best immediate EV option, but they are the nuts for Week 14, and there's also the possibility one or both of your opponents could be on them this week which would drop their EV to below Miami.

Fade the Raiders now that Josh Jacobs and John Abraham have been ruled out?

4 entries left in pool that goes into playoffs. If you don't use a team in regular season, you can use them 2x playoffs. 5 have 2 entries left. Everyone else has 1. My partner and I have won this one 2 times (including last year)

Taking (2) Seattle, Las Vegas and Kansas City

Miami in Circa 1K

Green Bay in .03 Nitrogen

Las Vegas & Minnesota (2x was triggered this week). I want Minnesota to lose but these were the best picks for me in this one. If I advance, conditional 2x will trigger again next week. There I'll have Seattle & Tennesee. They've by 47% & 23% of entries respectively so far (and it'll only increase after this week). I'll take my advantage next week in this one if I were to advance.

Another Miami

Miami & Kansas City in pool with 2x this week and in 16. Less than 10% of entries have Miami available.

Midseason Double picks pool. I have 3 entries with 44 left. 2 have 2. Everyone else has 1. Boxing Miami with Chicago, Las Vegas & Minnesota. Saving all my Seattle for 14 and Baltimore for 15-17.


Lets go!

Thanks for the response housenuts! What tool are you using to generate those EV #'s?

It's looking like Miami today. Can't think of 2 QBs who have frustrated me more (betting on or against them) then Kirk and Fitz over the last 5 years. Lets see what happens today.

Teamrankings.com

John Abraham has been ruled out since 2014 and he never played for the Raiders

Pivoted 3 of my entries off KC and onto MIN this morning and am now engaging in self-flaggelation

Another week of everyone advancing. Ugh

I’m gonna be able to retire on all the Sklansky Bucks I’ve earned this year.

Calculating the $ in ev I lost due to that Raiders lol would make me ill

If Kansas City wins, I would’ve gained 100,000ish in EV if Las Vegas & Minnesota lost. Even more if Baltimore &/or Pittsburgh lose. Real brutal day


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If its ever time for a miracle Jets win, its this week.

I'm going to be eating a lot of chalk this week and take Seattle across the board. It doesn't feel good, but NYJ doesn't want to win (even I can say fishy things) and I have advantages (albeit slight) over the field in almost every pool in 15-17.

***

I have 2x in a pool with 94 left. If there's 30 left after this week, we'll 2x in 15 and then 1x rest of the way.

43 have Seattle left, so I can take them without feeling bad about it

New Orleans - 1
Kansas City - 10
Green Bay - 0
Tennessee - 65
Tampa Bay - 20

If Seattle and Tennessee win, we'll 2x in 15. This makes Tennessee an easy FADE in this pool. I'm going to take Seattle & Carolina / Dallas / San Francisco. Dallas is the least available by far, so I'm going with them.

If I get through and Tennessee wins, I'll have a very strong and separated 2x in 15 spot. And Cleveland and Indianapolis for 16 & 17.

***

Midseason 2x pool. I have 2 entries with 23 left.

Seattle - 17
New Orleans - 2
Kansas City - 2
Green Bay - 2
Tennessee - 15
Tampa Bay - 15

I have 1 entry left with Tennessee. I'm probably supposed to go Seattle & Carolina/Dallas/San Francisco for both of them, but I'll probably go conservative route and pair 1 with Tennessee.

***

Still sad about last week. So close to the perfect week.