NFL Survivor Picks - Page 242 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I'm in a pick 2 week and have all the main options left - MIA, NE, IND, LAC

It's a very large pool and IND is the least available team, should I role IND/NE or just go with the chalk and NE/MIA

The other pick 2s are week 12, 13 and 16

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10-14-2020 , 09:20 PM

#6027

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgv1208

With the schedule change, LAC is now on bye.

If it is a very large pool with doubles this week, I would bet that Mia is 60% owned---If you have both NE and Ind available I would fade Mia and prefer the others---that is probably what I would do, depending on what the rest of your entry looks like etc-----There are also some very aggressive plays you coould make like Minn and Det but you probably would want to save Minn for doubles in 13 as a possible option. NE you might be ok saving for week 9---So, don't get mad at me if you do this and lose lol, but I think I would do Ind/Det in your pool, as ugly as it is.

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10-16-2020 , 08:34 AM

#6028

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

anddddddddddd Colts covid. I knew it would be an interesting season :/

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10-16-2020 , 08:48 AM

#6029

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

Colts were a tasty pick this week. We'll see how it plays out.

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10-16-2020 , 11:42 AM

#6030

Xaston

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 4,529

We're now being told that all 4 of the negative tests were inaccurate.

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10-18-2020 , 12:50 PM

#6031

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Slamming Indianapolis. Pairing them with Detroit & Minnesota in double picks.

1 entry on Detroit

5 total entries on Miami. Not a good pick but I/we (my partner) don't have any New England available, wanted to SAVE Baltimore and didn't want to dip to the 3-point favorites

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10-19-2020 , 10:57 PM

#6032

DuckU

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,358

Leaning toward Chargers and Eagles in winner pool for Week 7 and for pick in loser pool looking at Broncos.

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10-22-2020 , 10:19 AM

#6033

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,536

Am I crazy for taking Washington in a double pick week with 330 entrants left? I currently have Washington and saints. I’ve already used buffalo and am trying to save chiefs.

I’ll obviously never use Washington again and don’t love any of the other teams (could take rams or eagles). I think I may just go for it.

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10-23-2020 , 12:25 AM

#6034

BraveJayhawk

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Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever

Am I crazy for taking Washington in a double pick week with 330 entrants left?

Yes

With this strategy, you're hoping that Buffalo loses. You'll also need other upsets for it to 'pay' off. The point is too fade the 2 or 3 highest picked team and pick 2 teams outside that group. However, you don't need to take Washington at Pick when you can tan the Eagles at -5 (yeah I know they won already) or at least a favored team that you're still unlikely to use Atlanta or
Cleveland.

This is not the week to use this strategy imo. There's simply to many highly favored team. I'd take Buffalo and tag them with a non-Chiefs team - they're a wasted pick in 7.

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10-23-2020 , 12:38 AM

#6035

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

Nitrogen pools have gotten juicier the past week or so. Btc up about 30% since start of season.

Got through with Eagles on one entry.

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10-23-2020 , 09:32 AM

#6036

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,536

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

I’ve already used buffalo. Would definitely pair them with saints if I had them left. I think I may roll the dice with Washington, but I may change my mind and go with a small favorite. Atlanta looks like the team I may go with instead of Washington. I’ll watch the line movements and decide later in the week.

Thanks for the response.

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10-23-2020 , 06:08 PM

#6037

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever

I’ve already used buffalo. Would definitely pair them with saints if I had them left.

Thanks for the response.

If you've used Buffalo already, that's built in separation. Buffalo will easily 65% picked in a double picks week. You don't need to dip so low to create separation.

If Buffalo loses, there'll be lots of blood.

If KC, LAC or NO lose as well, it'll be a blood bath.

You don't need to drop so low - especially with Philadelphia already winning.

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10-25-2020 , 12:03 PM

#6038

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

Jammed Bills. Used Saints where I already used BUF

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10-25-2020 , 12:09 PM

#6039

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Jammed Bills. Used Saints where I already used BUF

I did the same and added 1 extra Saints in the .03

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10-25-2020 , 07:04 PM

#6040

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,536

I survived with saints and redskins. It was probably dumb but I’ll take it. Luckily I didn’t take Atlanta. Just decided to go with my gut and stick with Washington.

No one really went out today though.

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10-25-2020 , 08:42 PM

#6041

DuckU

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,358

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckU

Leaning toward Chargers and Eagles in winner pool for Week 7 and for pick in loser pool looking at Broncos.

Week 8 obvious time to use Kansas City v Jets at home, but taking Philly in one pool so still have KC in back pocket for week for week 16 v Atlanta at home

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10-25-2020 , 08:43 PM

#6042

DuckU

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,358

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever

Crazy like a fox, well done taking Washington!

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10-26-2020 , 07:56 AM

#6043

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Dalton injury and the general collapse of the Cowboys have created a situation where people who burned TB and KC can now save GB for week 10 or 12 if they want to, as Phi next week emerges as an theoretically easy alternative, where otherwise those kinds of entries would have been "forced" or at least mathematically encouraged to go with GB. Of course, if Phi becomes too popular as a result of this dynamic than they could just be a fade, but it is interesting to see these things occur.

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10-26-2020 , 08:15 AM

#6044

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

KC/TB/PHI/GB all seemingly good win odds next week. Assume many have used at least one of kc/tb so far.

I would probably take NYJ over DAL on a neutral field.

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10-27-2020 , 01:36 AM

#6045

SoulCrussher

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 110

5/36 left in a pretty decent prized pool.

Had Philly last week

thinking KC this week or do I save them ?

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10-27-2020 , 11:56 AM

#6046

Crazy Joe Davola

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Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 2,165

Got to save KC for Week 9 because they're the only good option if you have already used NE (@ Jets) and ARI (vs. Dolphins).

Week 8 looks like it should be Packers (@ MIN off a bye) or Eagles (vs. DAL)

Eagles have no future value whereas Packers can be used in 10, 12, 13 or 15

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10-27-2020 , 01:16 PM

#6047

sheetsworld

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Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Joe not sure if you are responding to the above or speaking in general terms, but if the person above has only 5 people left----it is important that he look at what his opponents have left and see where his leverage lies. With 76632454324 people left its harder but with only 5 he could do some good targeted analysis.

FV, especially FV in far out weeks, is less important as the number of remaining entries reduces, as the chances that weeks 14-15-16 are even in play are pretty slim.

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10-27-2020 , 02:45 PM

#6048

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,739

This is actually quite an interesting week. Lots of reasonable options, and all the better ML options have more FV, so really a big risk/reward week. Will need to wait and see how pick %s and ML shakes out later in the week before making a decision.

I can foresee taking some KC/TB/GB/TEN/PHI in various pools depending on the particular scenarios. Not too interested in anyone else at this time.

TEN is my subjective favorite pick of the week.