Thanks guys===sometimes the aggro pivot gets lucky.

After the Stafford news Chicago was definitely the better pick like that but I had locked in TB already and Nitrogen doesn't allow switcheroos.

Good luck to anyone else who is still alive in anything.

I'm sure some most still be pending this week with SF. Assuming not, it's ~7k equity.

Obviously depends on seller's risk tolerance, but at least 6k is reasonable in my uneducated opinion.

My pool chopped 3 ways. This was a lot of fun. I hope to enter a bunch of pools next season as I enjoy Survivor much more than fantasy football.

Thanks everyone for your advice/help throughout the season.

Where’s Eddy?

This can be calculated with a spreadsheet if you have the user and remaining users pick history, and reasonable win % assumptions for the remaining weeks. But I do not have one set up. I do know that OFP, which I THINK hosts the pool you are referring to, has a feature which ranks the remaining entries based on pick history. (Sometimes they do)

If so, you can adjust the 6-7k baseline based on that. It wont be precise, and sellers risk tolerance is still the biggest variable, but it would make for an interesting exercise.

Next year I want to get in one of y'all bigger leagues. Hit me up if you have openings.

Some of you who've been at this a while, what's the no-pay risk like on something like that 900k pool?

I would think 10% or so? That's assuming it's already been around for several years. Seems like a matter of time until these things get shut down.

I'm down to just a single entry each in the two smallest pools I was in. 12 left pays 1.003 BTC and 10 left pays 1.305 BTC.

I have a single entry in one which is down to 19----I am in pretty decent shape except for week 14, where a decent chunk of the pool has GB available and I do not.** Also, that pool is pretty sharp so it will not be quite as easy to predict who they will pick week to week.

This coming week the ownership in this one at least will have to be spread between SF/Oak/Minn in some way----when it gets down to this few people, figuring out who is taking who carries so much value and leverage, and also creates some interesting game theory.

**To the this point, it is not a big deal if alot of people have GB available if I knew for sure they would be taking them, and I had at least a reasonably close option.

189 got 187ed

that's crazy. hopefully he's back next year with a vengeance.

Im torn between MIN and CAR this week.

If the decision is between Car/Minn, (I doubt those are the only good options but)---I think taking Minn is either a really good play or a really bad one, for the same reason lol---

On the one hand, a cursory look out shows that Carolina is a really easy save for week 13. I presume you don't have anyone like Philly available so unless you were thinking of using the Rams, Car is a pretty easy play in 13, so you "should" save them for 13.

However, and this is honestly what makes this fun-----in week 13 everyone left in your pool will likely have them available, and will be piling on. So if you get to 13 and 9/10 people are taking Car, you can, and should take someone else, maybe even their opponent. So it is possible Car, while seemingly filled with FV, might actually have 0 FV for you if you are planning to leverage against high ownership in 13.

I should mention my pool is a double elimination pool with average joes. Current numbers are 70 left, 12 have both eliminations. I have both eliminations left. So I only need to go 6/7 in the last 7 weeks.

Yeah MIN and CAR were just from a glance over the spreads. I believe OAK is another good play. From my analysis I did weeks ago I had this outlook.

SEA
HOU
DAL
LAC
PHI
NE
SF
PIT
BUF
BAL
WEEK 11: MIN
WEEK 12: CLE/DET
WEEK 13: NO
Week 14: GB
Week 15: KC
Week 16: JAX
WEEK 17: LAR

Week 13 will be a NO play. Most people I believe have used them and will be on CAR in week 13. I’m getting iffy on JAX for week 16 and may need to re-evaluate.

Would you say NO is the play for Week 13 as well with what I have left?

Never really did the work on double elimination pools----but if I were you I would keep Car in the quiver and go Minn or Oak but keep in mind Oak is going to be extremely popular (I think)

You’re thinking as well as my initial thinking seem to be correct. According to survivorgrid MIN is going to be the most EV pick available to me at 1.08. They also have the current pick percent at 20 percent for MIN and a whopping 40 percent will be going OAK.

Looks like I will be locking in MIN come Sunday morning.

Edit- Looking at my preplanned picks NO Week 12 and Car Week 13 is probably the higher EV play than DET Week 12 and NO Week 13

i busted from everything but i want to give a shoutout to user 189. he must be on tilt

Hey guys,

I’m one of the 3 remaining entries in nitrogen’s 24.9 btc pool (user 52352, happy to provide proof by posting in nitrogen chat or something). I’ve already reached out to nitrogen support about this, but I’m hoping to contact the other two players to discuss whether they would be open to some sort of split. Any chance either of them post here or someone here knows who they are?

2/14 with a friend. 195K

1 entry in 3 different Btc pools

2/60 for 175K (double picks in 12 & 13)

1/11 for 35K

1/8 for 12K

I have Minnesota available in all pools. Have 0 San Fran available

Going to slam Minnesota. Not supposed to take Oakland because of pick popularity but not sure how much LAR and other I want to take

Great problems to have!

Who’s still in?

I split one small pool and am still in 3 with 6, 8, and 11 people left. Im in the same boat and am likely taking Minnesota in all 3.

Those are some nice prize pools.

I’m left in a 12k. Will also be going MIN.

1 entry in 1 pool with single picks remaining----

Either going Minn or SF this week and 1.Hoping people take alot of Oak and 2.Oak losing.

Good luck with that tho....Cincy really is the f ing worst lol.

I hate picking teams like OAK no matter who the opponent is. Running their check down O requires perfection. It also eats a lot of time on drives that score no points. This game will def be a 1 score game.

Lol dEddy.

From survivorgrid:

He’s never coming back. After he argued with me saying pools are going to have dozens of winners this year lol.