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Old 10-07-2010, 11:37 AM   #526
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

In order of use:

Bears, Raiders, Vikings, Jags

This week I'm leaning Lions.
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Old 10-07-2010, 11:39 AM   #527
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by slickpoppa View Post
So? Avoiding the popular pick is only the right strategy if the next alternative is almost as good. If anything, this week would be a good opportunity to use that strategy. According to Yahoo, 30% of people are on Indy who's at -338. There are other much less popular but similarly favored teams out there like Dallas at -290 (2% picked), Baltimore at -320 (8% picked), Cincy at -275 (10% picked), etc.
Right. Baltimore is almost as good to use this week as Indianapolis, and it would get you off the majority pick for two weeks. You'd end up on New Orleans in Week 7.
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Old 10-07-2010, 11:48 AM   #528
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Right. Baltimore is almost as good to use this week as Indianapolis, and it would get you off the majority pick for two weeks. You'd end up on New Orleans in Week 7.
That's good if you still have NO, but a lot of people (almost half) picked them last week.
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Old 10-07-2010, 02:02 PM   #529
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm going to stay off Indy this week and I've narrowed my choices down to Cinci, Baltimore and Dallas for me. (I do still have NO available). I literally have no idea which one to pick though, any thoughts?
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Old 10-07-2010, 02:10 PM   #530
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm splitting my picks between Indy and Cincy. This is gonna be an interesting week, for sure.
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Old 10-07-2010, 04:54 PM   #531
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I hope there will be some upsets this week to knock a few more people out. It's been a fairly quiet Week 3 and Week 4. I prefer not to have to wait until X-mas or beyond to collect my shares.
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Old 10-07-2010, 10:58 PM   #532
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Dos anyone see a reason not to take cincy this week? Or again is it best to save them for a home game against buffalo in 5 weeks? That leaves me with Indy and I dont see another sure win for them at home the rest of the year with that defense...
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:58 AM   #533
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Dos anyone see a reason not to take cincy this week? Or again is it best to save them for a home game against buffalo in 5 weeks? That leaves me with Indy and I dont see another sure win for them at home the rest of the year with that defense...
I wouldn't be too worried about saving the Bengals for week 10. The Saints (vs. SEA), Cowboys (vs. DET) and Steelers (vs. OAK) all have easy home games on that same week.

If you look ahead and see that you won't have any of those teams available, you might consider saving Cincy for the Buffalo game. Otherwise, you should be fine taking them this week.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:54 AM   #534
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm taking Cincinatti.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:58 AM   #535
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Every time the Bills play the Bengals CBS has to roll highlights of the '88 championship game because that's the last time Cincy beat them. Thank God that will finally be over (probably) after this year.
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Old 10-09-2010, 02:18 AM   #536
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by mulebennett View Post
On the other hand, everyone will be taking Baltimore that week.
this was my first thought but in my pool, only myself and one other player still have the Ravens available, which I found quite surprising

So I will certainly not be alone in taking Indy this week but if I'm still alive for Bills @ Ravens, only me and possibly one other poolie will be able to take that game.
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Old 10-09-2010, 02:21 AM   #537
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Also what's with the hard on for Cinci? I'm not much of a capper but -275 seems a bit steep as it is.
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Old 10-09-2010, 02:39 AM   #538
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Lions, Tigers or Bears? Oh my, sorry I mean:

Lions, Bengals or Bills?

That's my decision this week. Still leaning Lions but man they so rarely ever win games.
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Old 10-09-2010, 10:42 AM   #539
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Lions, Tigers or Bears? Oh my, sorry I mean:

Lions, Bengals or Bills?

That's my decision this week. Still leaning Lions but man they so rarely ever win games.
If I had to pick, I would probably bet on DET and BUF to get their first wins of the season this week, but that's only because they're up against almost equally as bad teams in STL and JAX. But in doing so, do you realize that the teams you'd be counting on for wins haven't won a game yet this year?

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Also what's with the hard on for Cinci? I'm not much of a capper but -275 seems a bit steep as it is.
More of a process of elimination than anything else. It makes sense to save Baltimore for future weeks (week 7 vs. BUF, or the one I'm eyeing, week 12 vs. TB), and it makes sense to stay away from the Colts as there are going to be so many people taking IND this week.
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Old 10-09-2010, 03:33 PM   #540
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Fade Buffalo all season they really have not even come close to looking like they can win a game this season. The NE game was an outlier they are really really awful.
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Old 10-09-2010, 04:12 PM   #541
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

No chance I'd take Jacksonville this week, though.
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Old 10-10-2010, 06:31 AM   #542
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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and it makes sense to stay away from the Colts as there are going to be so many people taking IND this week.
I expect at least half of people remaining in my pool to be on the Colts this week (almost everyone surviving still has IND to burn) but I still cannot really find a better alternative:

a) A bunch of people will still be saving the Colts purely because they would like to keep them for later in the season (almost analagous to saving money vs. spending money).

b) A bunch of people will be saving the Colts because they figure (reasonably so) that everyone else will be on IND and so they have a chance to differentiate with next best alternative.

Enter game theory's prisoner's dilemma, etc. I know it's pool dependent but everyone should be thinking KISS to the Nth degree even in soft pools. Just let those others outlevel each other and maybe hell will freeze over and you will scoop all the cheeseburgers in the end.

amirite? (flame away)

Last edited by tiltymcfish0; 10-10-2010 at 06:33 AM. Reason: oh, personally I can differentiate with BAL if I make it thru next 2 weeks, everyone else has burned em
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Old 10-10-2010, 06:37 AM   #543
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

accobra_kid - forgot to mention I totally agree with your process of elimination point and this is a little OT but that small handicapper part of me which I usually try to keep at bay cannot understand how Cinci is -275 this week, it seems so hefty

EDIT - I have a feeling this week might *actually* be pretty crazy just as some are predicting

Last edited by tiltymcfish0; 10-10-2010 at 06:38 AM. Reason: come to think of it, so does BAL -315
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Old 10-10-2010, 09:50 AM   #544
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

_Survivor 1Survivor 2
1NOTenn
2GBSD
3NENE
4SDNO
5BltInd

Tough one this week following KISS criteria.

Indy vs. KC coming off a bye.
NFC Dallas vs. AFC Tenny.
Cincy vs. Tampa coming off a bye.


Balt was the only team that fit all the criteria, but **** playing them on both cards this week.
In the end, I went with Indy over KC even though KC is coming off a bye. The deciding factor was Indy is top in the league shutting down opponents TE's and Cassell has had a lot of his success attributed to his TE outlet. Plus I have close to zero confidence in both Dallas and Cincy.

Pretty pedestrian analysis, but I'll cross my fingers...
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Old 10-10-2010, 09:51 AM   #545
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by shipontilt View Post
Fade Buffalo all season they really have not even come close to looking like they can win a game this season. The NE game was an outlier they are really really awful.

I think Buffy wins today FWIW.
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Old 10-10-2010, 10:49 AM   #546
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Saints & Rams for me
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Old 10-10-2010, 11:52 AM   #547
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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_Survivor 1Survivor 2
1NOTenn
2GBSD
3NENE
4SDNO
5BltInd
_Survivor 1Survivor 2
1NOTenn
2GBSD
3NENE
4SDNO
5IndBlt

Switching spots because I feel Blt is the safer play and Survivor 2 still has GB and Indy open.
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Old 10-10-2010, 03:50 PM   #548
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Saints & Rams for me
ouch.
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Old 10-10-2010, 04:24 PM   #549
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

**** YOU CARSON PALMER YOU ARE THE MOST OVERRATED QB IN THE HISTORY OF FOOTBALL YOU ARE GARBAGE I HATE YOU.
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Old 10-10-2010, 04:40 PM   #550
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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**** YOU CARSON PALMER YOU ARE THE MOST OVERRATED QB IN THE HISTORY OF FOOTBALL YOU ARE GARBAGE I HATE YOU.
Lol why would you take Cincy hahahahaha
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