Was just having this thought earlier today. If it isn't me, I hope it's him.

I haven't tried to run the numbers, but a split seems pretty plausible.

The most likely split scenario is Indy losing to Miami w10 and everyone going with them because they have no FV and there’s no good alternative.

Not fancy at all

I think there is some nuance to this week, depending on what you have left, and what kind of pool you are in----

There is one pool where I have a choice between Buff with the idea of SF in 9 or 11, or SF with idea of Buff in 9 or 11. Buff first then SF certainly has higher win expectation but will likely have higher combined ownership, as Buff will be burned heavy this week and have more scarcity later as a result.. The extra edge in holding onto Buffalo is that it maintains flexibility to hold them even further to 11 if things shake out in a way which makes that optimal. Actually SF has similar flexibility--- (Something better in week 9 opens up, pool availability warrants it, etc) What is that flexibility worth? Well, questions like that are what makes Survivor interesting.



There is another pool where I am just inclined to fade them both and take GB this week----rolling them both later. Definitely imm ev risk but future leverage is pretty useful.

glglglglgl

Ya this week is a little tricky. Smaller the pool, the more you should use Buffalo, larger the pool the less you should use them, is my general thought. Not sure what that threshold # is.

with how bad several teams are this season, i see a pretty clear path through week 15, barring injuries. week 16 has several descent options and week 17 in a crap shoot right now because of playoff implications.

i'm just going to lock in wins at this point and try to avoid FPS eliminations

My pool is down to 3 of us and we all have BUF and SF available. I'm thinking SF this week and BUF in Week 9 when they host the Redskins

If all three of you take Buf, it’s fine.
If you and only one other take Buf, it’s fine.
If you take SF and the other two take Buf, cool!
If you take SF and one other guy does, awful!
If you all take SF, it’s fine.

This is some “time for some game theory” nonsense without looking at numbers, but I would rather just take Buf in a 3 person pool than pray I’m the only SF.

Are you in the Nitrogen 1 btc?

Seems like one of those spots game theory wise its best to announce your pick to the others. pretty sure if they know you 100% are going to take SF its better for both of them to be on BUF

This

That's why I never have a problem publicly announcing my picks in threads like this.

Yeah I know PropPlayer’s ID from his posts but that may be more of an advantage for him than me.

This is pretty much where I'm at. Gonna see how the lines shake out but I'm guessing I take 2 SF and 1 BUF, or 2 SF and 1 GB.

I think sticking with Buffalo might be the correct higher level thinking play this week.

1. Lack of attractive swerve options means SF will be pretty highly owned (would guess at least 30% in big pools because anybody that swerves will go to SF)
2. SF still has plenty of FV (2 games against ARI, home game against ATL)
3. 11% Vegas loss equity for BUF vs. 22.5-ish% for SF is a pretty big gap

If you do go Buffalo where do you go week 9?

Jets

SF or SEA have usable games Week 9, or try to get one over with a 5-6 point favorite in a week where there won't be many double digit spreads.

Stand corrected. Having Pats and saving BUF would be deluxe this week.

Going:
1 BUF
1 SF
1 JAX

in the 0.1 Nitro

0.1 buy-in - BUF (2). Took them on both.
.03 buy-in - I took NE / BUF / GB
.01 buy-in - I took NE / SF / JAX / BUF
.005 buy-in New England (2) GB (1)
.0025 buy-in SF (2), BUF (2) New England (1)
.0001 buy-in. New England (5) and BUF (3)

The Mahomes injury sucks for those who haven't used KC

I got 2 in this. Was leaning GB but may fade. Trying to wait until Sunday to finalize. Wife is due on Wednesday so I'm fearing a situation where I haven't picked yet and then there's pregnancy stuff to deal with.

Seriously, some women can be so inconsiderate. She can hold off if she really loved you.

(GLGLGLGL to you and your wife BTW. IF GB WINS YOU MIGHT HAVE TO NAME THE BABY "LAZARD")

Ditto. Wishing good luck to you and your wife.