NFL Survivor Picks - Page 211 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sports Betting

NFL Survivor Picks

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 211 of 274

First

11 111 161 191 201 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 221 231 261

Last

Page 211 of 274

First

11 111 161 191 201 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 221 231 261

Last

09-16-2019 , 11:03 AM

#5251

nyc999

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 18,665

I had originally planned to take the Eagles this week, but considering their entire team went down last night, I'm very hesitant.

Quote

09-16-2019 , 01:42 PM

#5252

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

In a double picks pool, I think you have to consider TB this week.

Quote

09-17-2019 , 07:54 AM

#5253

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,922

Someone in the 0.1 btc ($1000) pool didn't make a pick for week 2.

Quote

09-17-2019 , 09:23 AM

#5254

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote

09-17-2019 , 11:15 AM

#5255

gushman

newbie

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 18

Looks like Nitrogen forgot to grade Week 2. My entries with Carolina are still alive.

Quote

09-17-2019 , 02:52 PM

#5256

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Someone in the 0.1 btc ($1000) pool didn't make a pick for week 2.

*Furiously checks entries*

Wasn't me!

Quote

09-17-2019 , 02:56 PM

#5257

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

how do you do this math?

I have a program to run a Monte Carlo simulation. If you have win% and pick% then EV for a given week is pretty straight forward. Survivorgrid also has the numbers.

Carolina was 0.92 EV vs 1.13 for the Pats. so .92/1.13 = ~20% of value surrendered. 1/(1-.2) = 25% edge you need to gain later to get back to whole.

Quote

09-18-2019 , 01:32 PM

#5258

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,674

Tough week this week for those of us who used Dallas week 1.

SF, GB, MIN all viable options. Don't want to spend Philly because they still have a home game against Miami and probably too early to use NE.

Quote

09-18-2019 , 02:05 PM

#5259

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,629

I’d be weary of picking Philly because of injury concerns. I say this as an Eagles fan

Quote

09-18-2019 , 02:59 PM

#5260

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,922

I'm likely shoving on Dallas except for my few entries I used them. Only reason considering holding them in my quiver is they look good for week 9 and barely anyone else will have them.

Quote

09-18-2019 , 09:10 PM

#5261

TheWhoWhat

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 352

What is the optimal strategy for a pool with 7,000 left and has mandatory 2 picks this week? Weeks 13 through 17 have mandatory double picks depending on who is left. When I went the distance in 2017 I had to make double picks 13, 14, 16, and 17 due to people left.

I can do majority Cowboys/Pats on my multiple entries but is that a dumb strategy?

Keep in mind this pool actually has ended in weeks 13-15. It ended in 15 last year due to week 3 wiping out 90% of pool given all the upsets last year (Vikings, Patriots, Jaguars, etc)

Quote

09-19-2019 , 12:16 AM

#5262

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,922

I that kinda pool I'd be taking TB this week for sure. Probably with MIN, possibly DAL.

Quote

09-19-2019 , 12:48 AM

#5263

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

I that kinda pool I'd be taking TB this week for sure. Probably with MIN, possibly DAL.

I agree. Tampa Bay for sure. I’d prefer Dallas with them

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

09-19-2019 , 09:06 AM

#5264

Steroid Boy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 42,161

im leaning towards minnesota because week 9 looks like a shitshow and the ev on survivor grid isnt too far off from dallas

someone talk me out of it

Quote

09-19-2019 , 09:10 AM

#5265

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,629

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steroid Boy

im leaning towards minnesota because week 9 looks like a shitshow and the ev on survivor grid isnt too far off from dallas

someone talk me out of it

look SF over Pit. Pit historically is terrible traveling far west. backup QB. plus they just haven't looked very good.

Quote

09-19-2019 , 09:46 AM

#5266

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot

look SF over Pit. Pit historically is terrible traveling far west. backup QB. plus they just haven't looked very good.

This isn't the type of answer he was looking for

Quote

09-19-2019 , 09:52 AM

#5267

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

Does 189 have DAL or NE available? I would assume he/she is going AI 50% each here?

Quote

09-19-2019 , 11:19 AM

#5268

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,922

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thickslicing

Does 189 have DAL or NE available? I would assume he/she is going AI 50% each here?

No way he/she will go 50/50. I assume will still have entries on MIN/TB...

W1	W2
Philadelphia	New England
LA Chargers	Dallas
Seattle	Baltimore
Dallas	Houston
New England	Kansas City
Baltimore	New England
Philadelphia	Dallas
LA Chargers	Baltimore
Seattle	Houston
Dallas	Kansas City
New Orleans	New England
Baltimore	Dallas
Philadelphia	Baltimore
LA Chargers	Houston
Seattle	Kansas City
New England	Baltimore
New Orleans	Dallas
Baltimore	Dallas
Philadelphia	Houston
LA Chargers	Kansas City
Dallas	New England
New England	Dallas
New Orleans	Baltimore
Baltimore	Houston
Philadelphia	Kansas City
Seattle	New England
Dallas	New England
New England	Baltimore
New Orleans	Houston
Baltimore	Kansas City
LA Chargers	New England
Seattle	Dallas
Dallas	Baltimore
New England	Houston
New Orleans	Kansas City
Philadelphia	New England
LA Chargers	Dallas
Seattle	Baltimore
Dallas	Houston
New England	Kansas City
Baltimore	New England
Philadelphia	Dallas
LA Chargers	Baltimore
Seattle	Houston
Dallas	Kansas City
New Orleans	New England
Baltimore	Dallas
Philadelphia	Baltimore
LA Chargers	Houston
Seattle	Kansas City
New England	Dallas
New Orleans	Dallas
Baltimore	New England
Philadelphia	Houston
LA Chargers	Kansas City
Dallas	New England
New England	Dallas
New Orleans	Baltimore
Baltimore	Houston
Philadelphia	Kansas City
Seattle	New England
Dallas	Baltimore
New England	Baltimore
New Orleans	Houston
Baltimore	Kansas City
LA Chargers	New England
Seattle	Dallas
Dallas	Baltimore
New England	Houston
New Orleans	Kansas City
Philadelphia	New England
LA Chargers	Dallas
Seattle	Baltimore
Dallas	Houston
New England	Kansas City
Baltimore	New England
Philadelphia	Dallas
LA Chargers	Baltimore
Seattle	Houston
Dallas	Kansas City
New Orleans	New England
Baltimore	Dallas
Philadelphia	Baltimore
LA Chargers	Houston
Seattle	Kansas City
New England	Baltimore
New Orleans	Dallas
Baltimore	Dallas
Philadelphia	Houston
LA Chargers	Kansas City
Dallas	New England
New England	Dallas
New Orleans	Baltimore
Baltimore	Houston
Philadelphia	Kansas City
Seattle	New England
Dallas	New England
New England	Baltimore
New Orleans	Houston
Baltimore	Kansas City
LA Chargers	New England
Seattle	Dallas
Dallas	Baltimore
New England	Houston
New Orleans	Kansas City

Quote

09-19-2019 , 04:40 PM

#5269

Steroid Boy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 42,161

in my thursday deadline pool

58% dallas
16% new england
8% minnesota

Quote

09-19-2019 , 04:45 PM

#5270

nyc999

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 18,665

In what I think is across all ESPN pools:

60% Dallas
7% NE
5% GB
3% Minnesota
3% Chicago
3% Buffalo
3% SF

A small % of these were picked at the beginning of the season by people now knocked out

Quote

09-19-2019 , 05:03 PM

#5271

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,922

Surprising there is no TB. Or at least < 3%

TB might be my 2nd favorite pick this week.

Quote

09-19-2019 , 05:32 PM

#5272

Steroid Boy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 42,161

tampa was 1% taken in mine

Quote

09-19-2019 , 08:18 PM

#5273

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

LOL, everyone is taking that Daniel Jones preseason performance against guys who got cut to heart apparently. I'll be on TB most likely, just because I wasted Dallas in week 1.

Quote

09-20-2019 , 08:59 AM

#5274

BulltexasATM

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,689

Why is no one mentioning Buffalo? Defense has looked great, they are at home for the first time, probably the best time to pick them if you plan to go the distance and Cincinnati is garbage.