Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
how do you do this math?
I have a program to run a Monte Carlo simulation. If you have win% and pick% then EV for a given week is pretty straight forward. Survivorgrid also has the numbers.
Carolina was 0.92 EV vs 1.13 for the Pats. so .92/1.13 = ~20% of value surrendered. 1/(1-.2) = 25% edge you need to gain later to get back to whole.