Dallas looks good also.

oh hai

Week 5 should be the first real test. Based on future lines, these should be the best four options:

BAL vs. DEN
IND vs. KC
CIN vs. TB
DAL vs. TEN

TEN seems too good to pick against, and DAL might be better saved for what looks to be a better spot in week 8 against JAX.

I'm not sure how I like picking against an undefeated KC coming off a bye, even though it's IND at home. The Colts also might be better off saving until later too, perhaps for week 15 against JAX.

BAL can probably be eliminated as well, since they have better matchups later on with home dates against BUF and TB.

At first glance, I'll probably be on CIN. The only other game you could really pick them in is against BUF at home in week 11. There are four other juicy matchups that week (PIT vs. OAK, NO vs. SEA, DAL vs. DET or even ATL @ STL if you want to get risky) to choose from, so there doesn't seem to be much reason in saving them. They lost to the Browns this week, probably will be looking to bounce back with a win before hitting their bye.

Of course, a lot depends on what lines actually come out this week. Guess we'll have to see and reevaluate in 24 hours.

A+

re: the lines. Colts are going to be close to -10. I would guess 9.5. Baltimore and Cincy will be TD favorites.

I don't see how Dallas vs. Tenn is a viable option. I'll probably roll with Indy vs. KC - their next easiest home game all year is Jacksonville in week 15.

Lines are out: Indy -8, Cincy -7, Baltimore -7, Nawleans -6.5 and Dallas -6.5

2 entries, probably 220 ppl left without a strike. so far I've gone CHI, PHI, NE, GB for both entries. pool rule requires 2 picks for week 5, week 10, and week 15. which 2 do I go with this week? it seems like a really tough week to pick 2 teams.

That's smart picking the same team in both entries every week.

This is a tough week. Not sure where I'm going yet I have gone NYG, GB, NE, NYJ.

Indy is fairly clear IMO. Cincy and Baltimore are playable in the near future as they both host Buffalo. Tennessee is strong enough to give Dallas a run. Also, some may be leary to choose Indy against a 3-0 Chiefs team. This is great for Indy backers as this may be a great week to not be lumped in with the majority of the pool.

Yeah, I sure ****ed this week up. Never been knocked out of a Survivor pool in the first ten weeks before. Oh well.

I sense sarcasm...my idea is that if I can see a good line to take early on I will take it so I can split off and start to diversify when the weeks get dicey (like now). I definitely don't plan on doing it this week...but CHI PHI NE GB was pretty solid imo.

Yeah, no sweats at all there.

would that not be results-oriented thinking? I'm fine if you critique my strategy because I'd like be doing what's most optimal, but is there a leak in taking the best EV (disregard whether I actually took the best EV here for the sake of the argument) for the first couple weeks in order to diversify later on when picks are much tougher with a more focused approach?

there's probably math behind it that somebody can show me. maybe I'm vastly overestimating the value of best EV of survival vs. the value of hedging.

This. Although it's worked out for you, so that's also results-oriented thinking.

You took 2 division games and a road team...in the first 4 weeks. I find it really hard to believe you can't find 2 games each week to pick. gl the rest of the way though.

He's won every week so yea.. it is pretty smart

ATL was my preplanned routine and it seems a lot of on that side now too.. Don't really have other good games the rest of the way the only problem is I don't even know if they will win lol.

Gona think about this one.. Either way I'm stayin the hell away from Indy @ KC, Bob Sanders is still out and for all we know KC has a great ground and pound gameplan set for Indy's bad defense.

KC @ Indy, not Indy @ KC. Don't know if that factors into your decision...

ok, that makes sense. I guess my intuition was off-base. thanks.

stopp itttt

i got 2 tickets and i think im choosing indi and new orleans, not sure yet

ew I cannot see myself burning the Ravens this week when they're hosting the FREAKING BILLS in only two weeks. Plus, Denver is a tad bit scary anyhow, seems they've been playing everyone pretty tough so far. LOL go Indy I guess.

On the other hand, everyone will be taking Baltimore that week.

That's why you save them for week 12 against TB.

So? Avoiding the popular pick is only the right strategy if the next alternative is almost as good. If anything, this week would be a good opportunity to use that strategy. According to Yahoo, 30% of people are on Indy who's at -338. There are other much less popular but similarly favored teams out there like Dallas at -290 (2% picked), Baltimore at -320 (8% picked), Cincy at -275 (10% picked), etc.