NFL Survivor Picks - Page 204 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

$25k winner take all casino contest. Double elimination.

You can pick any team as many times as you like. Not all games are on the board, although they messed up early in the season when MIN was -16 vs BUF and the upset happened- that would have knocked a lot of entries out if it was a pickable game.

There are 100 entries left, 13 of which have no losses.

I have 6 entries left with one loss each.

At what point is some kind of contrarian strategy indicated?

How many games should I pick with my 6 entries? I would normally do 2 or 3...

Update:

Heading into conference championships there are 25 entries left, I have 3.

Gonna end up being a pretty wide chop i think.

Thoughts?

Quote

04-19-2019 , 12:28 AM

#5077

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Feeling Dallas will be the best pick in Week 1. See ya in September

Quote

04-22-2019 , 11:34 AM

#5078

rainmaker1855

adept

Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 1,031

can the NFL just hurry up and start already?

Quote

08-02-2019 , 08:18 AM

#5079

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,690

Nitrogen pools are back up: https://blog.nitrogensports.eu/nfl-survivor-pool/

First week allows entry up until the 2nd MNF game so you can get some serious EV if some of the favorites lose on Sunday.

Quote

08-07-2019 , 12:50 AM

#5080

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Someone send me a linky to a pool with 500+ people with double picks in Weeks 5, 10, 15. Or something similar. Please...

Quote

08-18-2019 , 03:12 PM

#5081

mdot20

adept

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 787

Anybody have a pool I can join? My regular one didn't renew this year.

Quote

08-19-2019 , 09:11 AM

#5082

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by mdot20

Anybody have a pool I can join? My regular one didn't renew this year.

PM me your email address. I know of a few good ones.

Quote

08-19-2019 , 06:23 PM

#5083

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,690

Think I'm going exclusively Nitrogen this year

Quote

08-21-2019 , 04:21 PM

#5084

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Nitrogen offering .05 BTC freeroll survivor pools for "communities"

Any interest in forming a 2p2 pool? Need at least 20 players. Mod would need to dm Nitrogen Sports on twitter or email at marketing@nitrogensports.eu to apply.

Quote

08-21-2019 , 06:51 PM

#5085

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

Will there be a 2019 pool thread or are we just posting here?

I have two pools that I’m running (0.02BTC and 0.05BTC). The small one has a rebuy, bigger one doesn’t.

Http://********/2019NFLSurvivor

Tiny dot cc is banned. Sad!

Quote

08-22-2019 , 06:57 AM

#5086

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

I have 10 entries in a pool. Is correct strat to use 10 different lines? I was thinking of using the same team until approx week 10 and then branching off, but maybe that’s not the right way to do it.

Quote

08-22-2019 , 09:17 AM

#5087

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,690

10 different teams can't be optimal. I'd guess that depending on the week you probably want 3-6.

Quote

08-23-2019 , 04:48 PM

#5088

BulltexasATM

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,684

In a couple survivor pools this year. In looking at Week 1 - Philly over Washington and Seattle over Cincy appear to have the largest spreads and to be the safest picks. Any thoughts from Survivor pool experts out there?

Quote

08-23-2019 , 06:40 PM

#5089

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by BulltexasATM

I’ll be on neither

Quote

08-23-2019 , 08:08 PM

#5090

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,690

Quote:

Originally Posted by BulltexasATM

What % of other people are taking them?

Quote

08-28-2019 , 10:46 AM

#5091

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

Hey guys, I'm looking for pools to join, either survivor style, elim style, or pick pools, preferably with no vig/free entry nonsense.

I'm also running two survivor pools myself, a 0.02BTC w/ a rebuy and a 0.05BTC without rebuys.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...nwt6Ap1Wc/edit

Next week is always insane trying to find pools and set up payment, so if anyone has ones they know are run by good people and don't take a bunch off the top, that would be cool, thanks.

Quote

08-29-2019 , 03:37 PM

#5092

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Feeling Dallas will be the best pick in Week 1. See ya in September

Still love Dallas. FADEing Philadelphia for sure.

Seattle early heaviest picked team, but they don't have a lot of enticing plays till later (9). Probably will pick some of them.

New England (as always) & New Orleans is a save for later

Will fill out rest of my picks with likely LAC, Cleveland & Baltimore

Not doing any rebuy pools this year, but NYJ seem like a good pick for those

Quote

08-29-2019 , 03:52 PM

#5093

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Love seeing the team I’m taking not be mentioned.

Quote

09-02-2019 , 03:31 PM

#5094

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Love seeing the team I’m taking not be mentioned.

Definitely feels like NFL season

Quote

09-02-2019 , 04:25 PM

#5095

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Definitely feels like NFL season

I was under the impression your strategy was to fade the public picks? Is that not it? Of course I like Seattle, Dallas and Chargers but I think all 3 will be highly owned.

Quote

09-02-2019 , 04:34 PM

#5096

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

I was under the impression your strategy was to fade the public picks? Is that not it? Of course I like Seattle, Dallas and Chargers but I think all 3 will be highly owned.

Yes, but I mentioned 9 teams in that post. That leaves a bunch of 3.5ish type favorites. I'm having a hard time getting on board with any of those other than Detroit, but that's a lot of risk for a separation pick on Week 1

Quote

09-02-2019 , 04:44 PM

#5097

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,690

Love ya Eddy but your Survivor strategy always baffles me

Quote

09-02-2019 , 04:52 PM

#5098

Thickslicing

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 672

Do not believe the numbers from sites for the first week or two. They include a LOT of free pools, people who put picks in months ago, and other assorted nonsense.

Quote

09-02-2019 , 06:44 PM

#5099

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Love ya Eddy but your Survivor strategy always baffles me

You know I’ve had a good amount of success in these things. But I’m considering going all in on Chicago week 1. If it were week 2 it would be a no brainer for me.

Quote

09-04-2019 , 07:40 AM

#5100

bluebarracudas

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 33

Might not be considered optimal but I like to play it safe week 1 so that I have some film to help evaluate teams moving forward. I go more contrarian later on.

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