Quote:
Originally Posted by PropPlayer
The .003, 0.01 and 0.02 Nitrogen. How likely is it for each, that the pool finishes before Week 17?
Assuming 75% advance and all outcomes are independent (they definitely aren't) then the chances of someone getting W13-W16 right would be:
(.75^4) = 31.6% chance of any entry getting to W17
(1 - .316) ^ # of entries = chance of no one making it to W17
.003 = 99.0%
.01 = 97.8%
.02 = 89.8%
That's if I didn't mess up the details somewhere which I tend to do. And assuming no one was knocked out this week, I didn't double check.