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Old 09-24-2009, 12:49 PM   #26
MacGuyV
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Baltimore ftw ez. Tough week if you used them, it's either Kolb or a road team.
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Old 09-24-2009, 01:40 PM   #27
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Dallas is a 9 point favorite. Philly is up at pinny as a 9 point favorite as well.
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Old 09-24-2009, 02:15 PM   #28
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Baltimore ftw ez. Tough week if you used them, it's either Kolb or a road team.
Exactly. Also need to see if Westbrook and/or Jackson are even going to play. If neither go that means Kolb has rookies McCoy and Maclin and TE Celek to go to.
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Old 09-24-2009, 06:07 PM   #29
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I was thinking Green Bay this week for some reason, since I wasted Balti in week 1. Might switch to Philly depending on what lineup changes they announce before Sunday.
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Old 09-24-2009, 07:07 PM   #30
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Don't be surprised if both the Giants and Cowboys lose straight up this week. Lots of situational and even statistical factors favoring the dogs which I won't dwell too much into.

I am going with Baltimore and Philly this week for my entries. Cleveland is rotten and K.C. is not far behind. I think Philly is gunning for a W heading into the bye week and let McNabb heal and recover before the stretch run.
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Old 09-24-2009, 08:03 PM   #31
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I cant imagine anyway that you shouldn't take Baltimore unless of course you already used them.

I think I prefer Houston this week as a back up vs Jacksonville at home, but as stated before, its a really bad week to not have Baltimore available.
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Old 09-24-2009, 11:58 PM   #32
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Don't be surprised if both the Giants and Cowboys lose straight up this week. Lots of situational and even statistical factors favoring the dogs which I won't dwell too much into.

I am going with Baltimore and Philly this week for my entries. Cleveland is rotten and K.C. is not far behind. I think Philly is gunning for a W heading into the bye week and let McNabb heal and recover before the stretch run.
Analysis plz. I agree that PHI should take down KC pretty easily, but the Giants D is nasty, and I think Jacobs is going to run straight over the Bucs' D. DAL trying to avenge last week against the struggling Panthers should be a a no-brainer... must be some goot stuff you're smoking.
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Old 09-25-2009, 04:10 AM   #33
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I would rank them:
1. BAL
2. PHI
3. MIN
4. WAS
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Old 09-25-2009, 06:11 AM   #34
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I would rank them:
1. BAL
2. PHI
3. MIN
4. WAS
MIN is a god awful pick this week. SF is easily the most undervalued team in the league this year. Singletary has this team finely tuned...they're 2-0 this year, and 7 of their last 9. Their coach is one of the best linebackers ever and he has a defense that resembles his hard nose style of play led by one of the best linebackers in the game in Patrick Willis. Offensively, Shaun Hill is one of those guys that is under the radar but just has that knack for winning (they are 9-3 since he took over at qb) and we all know what Frank Gore is capable of. The fact that they are a 6.5 point dog is a joke. I would put them no worse than +3.5 with a legitimate shot to pull off the upset on the road.
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Old 09-25-2009, 10:34 AM   #35
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I would rank them:
1. BAL
2. PHI
3. MIN
4. WAS
Agree with the top 2 but significant drop off after that. SF isn't afraid to put 8 in the box and finally make Favre throw a ball farther than 10 yards. The Vikes have played crap teams thus far, wouldn't be surprised at all if they lose to SF. I picked Wash last week and after seeing how they squeaked by St. Louis I wouldn't even pick them vs. Detroit. They needed a late fumble by StL deep in Wash territory to win at home.

I would put NYG 3rd. After seeing Eli shred the Cowboy's D and the complete dysfunction with the TB secondary I think Eli has another big week and continues to roll with Smith and Manningham. The fact that they have to go on the road all the way down to TB puts them at 3rd for me.

Another comment on above.... wouldn't take Dallas at all either. I think a 9 pt favorite is a joke. Already jumped on Carolina +9.5 when it opened.
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Old 09-25-2009, 11:01 AM   #36
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

with everyone picking baltimore, wouldn't it be a good chance to diverge and try to win your league?

i'm really, really thinking about taking dallas or GB in my league with 9 guys left, all of them probably taking balt
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Old 09-25-2009, 12:08 PM   #37
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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with everyone picking baltimore, wouldn't it be a good chance to diverge and try to win your league?

i'm really, really thinking about taking dallas or GB in my league with 9 guys left, all of them probably taking balt
Yes but probably not with those teams.
Why would you take GB on the road?
Are you just looking at the spread in considering Dallas?
If Balt isn't an option I really can't see how you can be comfortable taking someone other than Philly or NYG.
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Old 09-25-2009, 12:16 PM   #38
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by KLJ View Post
with everyone picking baltimore, wouldn't it be a good chance to diverge and try to win your league?

i'm really, really thinking about taking dallas or GB in my league with 9 guys left, all of them probably taking balt
The more I think about this, the more I like Dallas on MNF. I have 700+ people in my league and 400+ left without a loss. The tiebreaker is the least amount of wins between the teams you choose. So while I'd like to take lock's early - I still have to think about this tiebreaker as it came into affect last year and forced ridiculous decisions in the last 3-4 weeks (incluidng people rightfully taking Detroit). Avoiding Balt. could be +EV for now and Dallas is still 9 point fav's at home in an emotional MNF game. My main concern, though, is that if Carolina falls to 0-3, they are out of the playoff hunt considering their division so they should be ready to play also.
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Old 09-25-2009, 12:20 PM   #39
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Scruffs Mcguff View Post
Yes but probably not with those teams.
Why would you take GB on the road?
Are you just looking at the spread in considering Dallas?
If Balt isn't an option I really can't see how you can be comfortable taking someone other than Philly or NYG.
NYG are on the road too. Plus it shouldn't really matter since homefield is already factored into the spread. Why wouldn't you look at the spread? NFL is considered one of the most efficient markets. IMO the DAL spread being off by 2.5-3 points is very unlikely. It seems far more likely that the professional expert linesmakers are better at handicapping than casual NFL fans (me, and I assume you).
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Old 09-25-2009, 12:23 PM   #40
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Judging by the money lines it's:
BAL -800
DAL -375
PHI -375
WAS -285
NYG -275
MIN -270
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Old 09-25-2009, 02:00 PM   #41
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I don't feel like taking BAL this week. Right now I'm on DAL. Is the monday night game vs. carolina really a huge game? I looked at the schedule and there's pretty much no other good time to take DAL when there aren't better options available. With a 9 point line, that lots of people are saying is probably too high, I still think it's a good option.

I really try to avoid road teams in Survivor. The only other team I was looking at was Houston. I can't really see that as a better pick than DAL though.

I don't know much about football but I enjoy these survivor pools. Hell, I picked Denver last week. I assume 75% of my pool while be on BAL, and I also like separation if it's prudent.
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Old 09-25-2009, 02:41 PM   #42
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I don't feel like taking BAL this week. Right now I'm on DAL. Is the monday night game vs. carolina really a huge game? I looked at the schedule and there's pretty much no other good time to take DAL when there aren't better options available. With a 9 point line, that lots of people are saying is probably too high, I still think it's a good option.

I really try to avoid road teams in Survivor. The only other team I was looking at was Houston. I can't really see that as a better pick than DAL though.

I don't know much about football but I enjoy these survivor pools. Hell, I picked Denver last week. I assume 75% of my pool while be on BAL, and I also like separation if it's prudent.
Agree with you about the road teams. But if not Baltimore then Philly or Dallas over Houston I think.
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Old 09-25-2009, 03:04 PM   #43
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I assume 75% of my pool while be on BAL, and I also like separation if it's prudent.
Who cares about being prudent, just take Cleveland...
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Old 09-25-2009, 06:47 PM   #44
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Who cares about being prudent, just take Cleveland...
Browns and the Rams are far and away the worst two teams in the league this year. The only way that changes is if James Davis turns out to be the next Adrian Peterson which is very highly unlikely.
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Old 09-25-2009, 07:12 PM   #45
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

[ ] Barber worth 3 points

[x] 1st half line
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Old 09-25-2009, 09:27 PM   #46
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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[ ] Barber worth 3 points

[x] 1st half line
Yea, I know. I deleted it the minute after.
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Old 09-25-2009, 10:03 PM   #47
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Ha, nice ninja edit
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Old 09-25-2009, 11:15 PM   #48
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by icancount2one View Post
Analysis plz. I agree that PHI should take down KC pretty easily, but the Giants D is nasty, and I think Jacobs is going to run straight over the Bucs' D. DAL trying to avenge last week against the struggling Panthers should be a a no-brainer... must be some goot stuff you're smoking.
For starters, I tend to avoid road teams and prime-time games for this type of Pools, unless the situation really calls for it which I don't think this to be the case, being fairly early in the season

Now on to the games. The G-Men are off 2 consecutive divisional game including an emotional win on prime-time last week against their arch-rival Cowboys. I smell a letdown here. The Giants are superior over the Bucs in almost statistical categories but the G-men defense can be attacked on the ground and in the air. Yes I know the G-men have proven to be road warriors but I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, especially considering the Giants is hosting the Raiders in Week 5.

For the other game, we have a desperate dog on prime-time against an over-rated Cowboys squad who can put up points but who also give up a ton of yardage and points to boot. Dallas is the only team so far in the league who has yet to record a sack. Delhomme is no Romo but if he got enough time in the pocket, i see a big game for Steve Smith comes Monday night.

In short, I see better options in Baltimore and Philly (if they are still available to you) than the G-men and the 'Boys.

Good luck to all!
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Old 09-26-2009, 08:16 AM   #49
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Anyone who picks Washington this week is more than welcome in my pool next year.
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Old 09-26-2009, 10:50 AM   #50
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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For starters, I tend to avoid road teams and prime-time games for this type of Pools, unless the situation really calls for it which I don't think this to be the case, being fairly early in the season

Now on to the games. The G-Men are off 2 consecutive divisional game including an emotional win on prime-time last week against their arch-rival Cowboys. I smell a letdown here. The Giants are superior over the Bucs in almost statistical categories but the G-men defense can be attacked on the ground and in the air. Yes I know the G-men have proven to be road warriors but I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, especially considering the Giants is hosting the Raiders in Week 5.

For the other game, we have a desperate dog on prime-time against an over-rated Cowboys squad who can put up points but who also give up a ton of yardage and points to boot. Dallas is the only team so far in the league who has yet to record a sack. Delhomme is no Romo but if he got enough time in the pocket, i see a big game for Steve Smith comes Monday night.

In short, I see better options in Baltimore and Philly (if they are still available to you) than the G-men and the 'Boys.

Good luck to all!
Totally agree. Gmen are also real banged up on defense.
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