NFL Survivor Picks - Page 199 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I don't understand how only 21% of people are using KC per SG. Baffling to me. I can't imagine that many people average Joes are trying to be contrarian. And it's not that 80% of people have already picked them either.

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11-08-2018 , 12:16 PM

#4952

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Look at your pool. How many have them left? Wouldn't be shocked if only 30% have them left, so 2/3rds of the people with them remaining seems reasonable.

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11-08-2018 , 12:26 PM

#4953

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,235

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Look at your pool. How many have them left? Wouldn't be shocked if only 30% have them left, so 2/3rds of the people with them remaining seems reasonable.

11 left in mine and 7 have already used the Chiefs. I assume the 3 other than me who haven't will join me in using them this week.

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11-08-2018 , 12:54 PM

#4954

Gallagher_

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 176

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Look at your pool. How many have them left? Wouldn't be shocked if only 30% have them left, so 2/3rds of the people with them remaining seems reasonable.

Well on SG only 60% have used them, so it's about half who have them (ignoring whether people who've used them are more likely to be out, which I doubt is a meaningful factor). What are the other half thinking? Are half of Joe Publics really going contrarian on a 16.5 pt favorite?

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11-08-2018 , 01:10 PM

#4955

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gallagher_

Keep in mind everyone in your pool went contrarian to Minnesota vs Buffalo, as an equally large favorite.

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11-11-2018 , 06:46 AM

#4956

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

Packers and chargers this week for me

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11-11-2018 , 11:47 AM

#4957

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Taking Green Bay & NYJ in my highest equity pools. Taking Kansas City, LA Rams & NYJ in my other 3 standard pools.

Kansas City & LA Rams in Midseason Double Picks (started in 9). Took chalk because I'm going to gamble real hard in this one next week.

Double picks week in my rebuy pools (can't rebuy anymore). Have 6 entries left. Last week of double picks. Boxing Green Bay with 3 Philadelphia & 4 NYJ.

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11-11-2018 , 02:08 PM

#4958

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

I have Jets and Packers in pools i have the most equity in.
I have Rams, Chiefs (and some Jets) in others.

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11-11-2018 , 03:33 PM

#4959

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Will be out of the .06. Glgl fellas

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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11-11-2018 , 04:48 PM

#4960

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zimmer4141

I feel like the Jets are the big time fade this week.

Plenty of people will take them because Buffalo has looked so bad and there's no Future Value for the Jets, but I could easily see them putting up another offensive clunker and scoring 6 points, which even Buffalo can somehow get to.

Get one right every once in a while. Let’s go Eagles.

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11-11-2018 , 04:49 PM

#4961

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Took the Bears. Disappointed only 8 had Jets, and 4 were on Falcons. So we at least lost 12 people this afternoon.

Rest of the afternoon looks like this:

Packers 11
Chargers 8
Rams 3

If one of those would lose that would be nice.

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11-11-2018 , 06:29 PM

#4962

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Packers 11
Chargers 8
Rams 3

If one of those would lose that would be nice.

Or all

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11-11-2018 , 08:36 PM

#4963

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

Or all

Almost a miracle comeback to knock out the Rams, but was not meant to be.

Like my spot going into week 11. Almost everyone in both of my pools are already used on the Saints, who have good spots coming up the next couple weeks. Question is when to use them.

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11-11-2018 , 09:09 PM

#4964

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

Got lucky with the Rams. If Russell had not overthrown Lockett, I think they win that game.

Week 11 should be fun although the Chargers will be heavily picked. I wanted to take them not sure if I can now.

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11-11-2018 , 09:11 PM

#4965

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

I don’t think many will have Chargers left. In my pool I think 8/43 have Chargers left and I’m one of them. I’ll be using the Chargers myself.

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11-11-2018 , 10:02 PM

#4966

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

Next few weeks are going to be exciting.

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11-12-2018 , 12:45 AM

#4967

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,667

Sigh, should have gone Chiefs and saved the questionable teams for next week.

GL to everyone in your various pools.

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11-12-2018 , 09:02 AM

#4968

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Not doing very well this season----out of my biggest equity pools but, I am in the Nitrogen mini guy which, if I win, might pay for all of the entry fees I lost in the big ones lol----

Next week will be a bloodbath for sure.

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11-12-2018 , 10:05 AM

#4969

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Ughh upcoming week gonna be brutal, I don’t know Carolina or Pitt. I’d like to save Pitt but don’t know if I can trust Carolina.

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11-12-2018 , 10:08 AM

#4970

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,750

I might be crazy but considering Zona in my biggest pool

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11-12-2018 , 10:30 AM

#4971

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Not crazy, zona definitely an option.

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11-12-2018 , 12:31 PM

#4972

Henry_Sugar

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 487

There ended up being two decent sized favorites, the Chargers and New Orleans are both above -300. Pitt is -240. Everything else is close.

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11-12-2018 , 03:39 PM

#4973

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,767

Quote:

Originally Posted by Henry_Sugar

There ended up being two decent sized favorites, the Chargers and New Orleans are both above -300. Pitt is -240. Everything else is close.

And NO is in a classic NFL let down spot. Def would not feel comfortable taking them.

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11-12-2018 , 05:35 PM

#4974

fortisque

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 217

Almost surely going to be taking Saints in both the .25 and .06, I'm the only one left out of 4 with Saints in the .25 and only one other guy still has Saints left in the .06. Will in all likelihood hedge by throwing a bunch of money down on Eagles moneyline.

If the game somehow ends in a tie, you can find me at the bottom of a lake.