Didn't have them, but I imagine Bears lost today was one of the more painful Survivor losses one could experience

Cliffs?

Wake up to see spread moves 3+ points. Change picks to Chicago. Blow 21-10 lead late in 3Q. Got the miracle Miami fumble at the 1-yard line in OT. Drives the ball down field. Settles for a 53-yard FG. Miss.

Yeah I was kicking myself for locking early when I saw Tannehill was out. Better to be lucky I guess.

There could be blood. Conflicted EV wise if I want gb to win or lose

Whew! Man 2 weeks in a row here living dangerously.

Got bailed out in the Houston game, but end of that Packers game was tough to stomach

Absolute brutal that Packers sucked out and survived. Cost me lots of equity with a big % of 2 remaining pools on the Packers. Tbh i got lucky on the Panthers last week in the biggest pool remaining, but still sick to watch that ending.

Not great options for week 7 since I already used the Rams in both. Good chance I go double Colts even though I'd rather diversify my picks, especially if the Bills start Peterman.

I am going to be flipping a coin between Indy and JV this week in all formats. Indy might be better in pools with multiple picks later, but I am between those 2.


#divisionrivalrygameslfg

this, btw.

This was me except sub Texans for Packers. Guess I'll take it.

I also had some Chicago. At kick-off I was regretting not taking more of them.

For this who make it, week 11 is gonna be crazy tough.

Chargers is who I’m targeting that week.


Here’s a question: if you knew 90% of the pool was taking a team, would you fade even if it’s a free square basically?

Eddy I think this is a good exercise for you----

Lets say there are 10 people left out of 100 entrants. Lets say it was $100 entry with winner take all. (As if now your equity is $1,000)

The slate for this week has 2 games:

Giants vs Jets

Cowboys vs Redskins

The Giants are 80% likely to win
The Cowboys are 60% likely to win

You know that the other 9 entrants are taking the Giants.

Who should you take?

The answer is: The Jets, which would give you $2000 in average resulting equity, followed by the Cowboys which would give you an average of $1760 in equity. Picking the Giants would give you exactly $1000 in equity and is a distant 3rd choice despite them being 80% likely to win.

It is somewhat important to know the math behind the answer, but more important to understand the concepts underlying it.


Do you see why this is the case?

Weird week upcoming.

Only double digit favorite is the best team in the NFL on the road, so you'd be burning one of the best teams when they'll have a couple games down the line where they'll be 14-17 point favorites.

Indianapolis is probably going to be the popular pick this week with Anderson starting for Buffalo, but personally I think I'm going to fade them and hope Buffalo's top 5 defense can get to Luck and pull the upset.

Torn on where to actually make the pick though. Atlanta is 6 point home favorites, but their defense is awful and NYG has tons of playmakers with Engram probably back.

Tentatively going with a lot of LAC and IND. Also want to work in a good amount of TB, but probably won't pick them more than once in any given pool.

Indy and LAC have too many variables for my liking. Might end up taking two ****ty teams this week and I’m not gonna be happy about it.

I have 23 entries remaining accross several pools, never double picks, all single elimination, no rebuy. I went with:

Colts 8
Chargers 5
Buccs 5
Rams 2
Falcons 1

I'm very heavy on Colts, and I'm considerably heavier on the Chargers than I am on the Buccs even though took them the same amount of times. 10 of my entries still had Rams available, but I only used them twice.

I have 4 entries and using none of those teams listed above. Not sure if that’s good or bad.

Chargers and rams this week. Fading colts definitely

37% LAC
37% IND
17% DET
8% TB

6 entries across 5 pools. Split Colts/Eagles. Fading rest.

Weighted order...

Chargers
Tampa Bay
LA Rams
Detroit

Have a lot of company. Let’s go!


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WTF Nitrogen

I submitted my Chargers pick last night. Was still deciding on my other entries on there. Pool is now locked and I lose my other.

4 of 14 people eliminated form the .06. The only pool I’m still in. What a ****ing joke




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I noticed that you can see others picks. I assumed it would only show those who picked Chargers, but it shows all. Is pool actually locked??? That's a huge error on their part.