NFL Survivor Picks - Page 188 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

my likely -EV strategy I've decided to do for YOLO purposes.

I've picked Cleveland for a few entries in various leagues. If Cleveland wins, I will continue the YOLO on Sunday with mostly HOU/CHI. If CLE loses, then I will be sad, and be conservative on Sunday and heavily on MIN.

Quote

09-20-2018 , 11:34 PM

#4678

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

BOOM! We got Cleveland home!

Quote

09-20-2018 , 11:41 PM

#4679

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

booyakasha. expert strategy!

Quote

09-21-2018 , 11:20 AM

#4680

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,666

San Francisco and Chicago both very viable Week 9 plays if you take Minnesota this week.

I also think that there's a ton of future value that will appear over the course of the season with QB injuries, lost seasons for teams, etc. Like how many people were sitting here in week 3 and game planning to take whoever plays the Packers in week 14-17?

For example, if Russell Wilson gets injured, Seattle is probably in a similar boat Vegas line wise to Buffalo and Arizona.

Quote

09-21-2018 , 11:25 AM

#4681

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

I'm passing on Vikings this week. Going to fire at them in 6 &/or 9.

Taking Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City & Philadelphia this week.

Quote

09-21-2018 , 12:55 PM

#4682

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

I took CLE for 1/3 of my picks. I'm not too stoked on any picks for the rest except Houston.

Minn: pop + fv
LAR/NWE: fv
Philly: objectively a good pick, subjectively hesitant (terrible reason)
kc: i'm probably going to bet on SF
chi/bal: getting low in ML
jax: maybe

Quote

09-22-2018 , 06:13 PM

#4683

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,271

My league only had 57% on Minn...185/321

Not bad, figured like 66%ish

Went all Minn.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 09:23 AM

#4684

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

I'm on Hou, Chi, Jax, CLE, and 1 entry on MIN. Avoided the rest.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 04:20 PM

#4685

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

I'm passing on Vikings this week. Going to fire at them in 6 &/or 9.

Taking Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Kansas City & Philadelphia this week.

Unfortunately I swapped in a lot of Jacksonville this morning

Go Bears

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

09-23-2018 , 05:22 PM

#4686

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

Shipped a little over 7k in 2 pools this week. 2nd time in 3 years I've won in week 3.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 05:42 PM

#4687

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

I shipped at least $8K already too, and could be more. Picked up way way more than that in equity. The coming weeks are going to be exciting. I'm near freerolling already (spent about $10K on entries) and I am still alive in several pools with six figure payouts that will down to winable range each week.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 06:10 PM

#4688

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by housenuts

I'm on Hou, Chi, Jax, CLE, and 1 entry on MIN. Avoided the rest.

If chi doesn't win, down to only my cle picks. Still may be a +EV week.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 06:13 PM

#4689

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Nice wins gentleman. I have 2 entries left in the .06 Btc on Nitrogen. Will be 14/15 entries left if Chicago losses. That’s my biggest gainer on the day

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

09-23-2018 , 07:52 PM

#4690

sheetsworld

veteran

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,811

Too much Hou for me today

Quote

09-23-2018 , 07:54 PM

#4691

BluffMyNuts

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 13,211

Gl to all the sharps who faded the 17 point favorite trap

Quote

09-23-2018 , 08:00 PM

#4692

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

I'm still in the 0.25 BTC buy-in at Nitrogen. I think 8 survived with 4 more pending on Pats.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 08:09 PM

#4693

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Nice wins gentleman. I have 2 entries left in the .06 Btc on Nitrogen. Will be 14/15 entries left if Chicago losses. That’s my biggest gainer on the day

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

I'm still in the 0.25 BTC buy-in at Nitrogen. I think 8 survived with 4 more pending on Pats.

still in both of these. i just bet on pats, but hope they lose.

Quote

09-23-2018 , 10:50 PM

#4694

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

If I hadn’t moved onto so many Jacksonville picks this morning, today would’ve been the pure nuts. Amazing day! Important that I post here for future reminders when I’m soul crushed

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

09-23-2018 , 11:57 PM

#4695

kazor

Coach PLO

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by kazor

I like Chicago for this week.

Next week I have a pool with a double pick week (last rebuy week). Other pools rebuys ended this week but this week was the biggest mass wipeout I have ever seen in survivor pools this early in the season that I can remember.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 08:14 AM

#4696

Kurn, son of Mogh

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 16,225

18/248 remain in my pool. I am still alive.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 09:33 AM

#4697

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Damnnnn 12 people left in my 500 buck pool, you can buy back but buy back is double so I’m curious how many are going to. I went with Chicago, KC and jaguars so I’m in nice shape right now.

Quote

09-24-2018 , 10:39 AM

#4698

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,668

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bagliani

Damnnnn 12 people left in my 500 buck pool, you can buy back but buy back is double so I’m curious how many are going to. I went with Chicago, KC and jaguars so I’m in nice shape right now.

how many ppl started? assume buy back is very +Ev

Quote

09-24-2018 , 11:04 AM

#4699

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

In the 500 buck pool there was 123 to start. I’m also in a 200 buck pool that had over 500 people people in it and there’s 52 left. You can buy back once until week 6 in each but it cost double the money. I got 2 left in each pool.