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Old 09-12-2018, 07:59 PM   #4651
Onlydo2days
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

So it doesn't show % of teams picked or who has picked who?

Knowing that is a big part of correct strategy.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:45 PM   #4652
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

It doesn’t show the overall %. But clicking on each entry shows who they have picked so far
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:35 PM   #4653
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Overall % is useful in estimating % for the league going forward.

Like I find my league mirros OfficePool on Survivor grid pretty closely. With the top picks being a few % points higher.

Is there a way to put your own estimates into survivorgrid to calculate EV? Or a site that allows you to do so?
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:11 AM   #4654
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
Overall % is useful in estimating % for the league going forward.

Like I find my league mirros OfficePool on Survivor grid pretty closely. With the top picks being a few % points higher.

Is there a way to put your own estimates into survivorgrid to calculate EV? Or a site that allows you to do so?
I built this in Python last year, but I had some errors in how I calculated it and I can't remember now if I ever fixed it. I'll have to dust it off and see.
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Old 09-16-2018, 09:39 AM   #4655
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Taking more Saints than Rams

Taking ZERO Chargers

Saints in rebuy pools

Have a little Redskins and even less Broncos (no 49ers - saving them for later)
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Old 09-16-2018, 01:01 PM   #4656
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

100% on the Rams.
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Old 09-16-2018, 03:30 PM   #4657
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.

Tried to minimize Rams on Nitrogen since so many late entries used them and expected more to use them today, so wanted to be one of only entries to keep them available for a later week. Not sure if good logic.
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Old 09-16-2018, 08:04 PM   #4658
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.
Good week for the kid.
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Old 09-18-2018, 09:41 AM   #4659
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week
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Old 09-18-2018, 10:35 AM   #4660
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week


It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else and now I'm left taking a team I never would have though I would take in my entire life, but YOLO.
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Old 09-18-2018, 11:39 AM   #4661
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Taking Vikings isn’t dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, it’ll be a great spot to use Vikings.
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Old 09-18-2018, 12:36 PM   #4662
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Bagliani View Post
Taking Vikings isnít dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, itíll be a great spot to use Vikings.
Sounds pretty reasonable, but you have to account for the uncertainty in that week 6 line. Things could certainly change.
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Old 09-18-2018, 02:30 PM   #4663
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week
Not dumb

Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else.
Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagliani View Post
Taking Vikings isnít dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, itíll be a great spot to use Vikings.
I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.
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Old 09-18-2018, 03:56 PM   #4664
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Not dumb







Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason







I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.


Only took me arguing with you for 4 years to realize how important future value is in these things. I guess trying to bink it in week 3 isn't a great strategy.
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Old 09-18-2018, 05:16 PM   #4665
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I just donít really see why taking Houston as 7 point favorites then MIN as 14-14.5 point favorites is a superior strategy to taking MIN as 17 point favorites Wk3 then HOU as probably 9.5-10.5 point favorites in Wk6. I donít know that the value gained in being different is big enough to compensate for the picks being worse according to Vegas lines. Especially because MIN is so unlikely to lose this week.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:32 PM   #4666
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Not to mention the fact that it is the NFL. Minn isn't a lock to get to week 6 as a 13pt favorite. Although Houston isn't a lock to be 9 that week obviously either. They have a running QB behind a terrible OL. People should consider stuff like that when assessing FV.

I think when you have a team with 90% WP you mostly just wanna use them.

I'm gonna go Minn all 4 entries of mine.


Definitely running bad so far though.....NO/Denver this week and GB week 1 I didn't have any of and all skated by.

Last edited by Onlydo2days; 09-18-2018 at 06:52 PM.
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:30 PM   #4667
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

16 entries across 5 pools.

Likely going some combo of: Chi, Hou, Min - with sprinkles on Jax, Nwe, KC, Phi
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:04 PM   #4668
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
I just donít really see why taking Houston as 7 point favorites then MIN as 14-14.5 point favorites is a superior strategy to taking MIN as 17 point favorites Wk3 then HOU as probably 9.5-10.5 point favorites in Wk6. I donít know that the value gained in being different is big enough to compensate for the picks being worse according to Vegas lines. Especially because MIN is so unlikely to lose this week.
The difference in the spreads is pretty small. The difference in pick percentages will be enormous. If your pool runs 70% Minnesota then there's no value there.

My bigger hesitation this week is that a lot of the other attractive picks have quite a bit of future value.
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Old 09-19-2018, 12:10 PM   #4669
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Am I the only one using Clev? YOLO
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Old 09-19-2018, 01:27 PM   #4670
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Am I the only one using Clev? YOLO

I'm thinking of YOLOing a few entries on them as well
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:29 AM   #4671
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I like Chicago for this week.
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:43 AM   #4672
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Lots of directions to go this week. Still leaning no Minnesota and using them later. All on Minnesota certainly a great play too


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Old 09-20-2018, 07:46 AM   #4673
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

If you are going all-in on the Vikings this week what are you using for Week 9?
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Old 09-20-2018, 12:56 PM   #4674
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
Lots of directions to go this week. Still leaning no Minnesota and using them later. All on Minnesota certainly a great play too


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In a double elim pool with one loss already. It's a double pick week and I will be passing on vikings. Pretty much avoiding the top % play from here on out
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Old 09-20-2018, 01:44 PM   #4675
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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In a double elim pool with one loss already. It's a double pick week and I will be passing on vikings. Pretty much avoiding the top % play from here on out


I wouldnít take Minnesota in this scenario either. What other weeks are double picks?


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