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Old 09-12-2018, 07:59 PM   #4651
Onlydo2days
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

So it doesn't show % of teams picked or who has picked who?

Knowing that is a big part of correct strategy.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:45 PM   #4652
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

It doesn’t show the overall %. But clicking on each entry shows who they have picked so far
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:35 PM   #4653
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Overall % is useful in estimating % for the league going forward.

Like I find my league mirros OfficePool on Survivor grid pretty closely. With the top picks being a few % points higher.

Is there a way to put your own estimates into survivorgrid to calculate EV? Or a site that allows you to do so?
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Old 09-13-2018, 02:11 AM   #4654
Gallagher_
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days View Post
Overall % is useful in estimating % for the league going forward.

Like I find my league mirros OfficePool on Survivor grid pretty closely. With the top picks being a few % points higher.

Is there a way to put your own estimates into survivorgrid to calculate EV? Or a site that allows you to do so?
I built this in Python last year, but I had some errors in how I calculated it and I can't remember now if I ever fixed it. I'll have to dust it off and see.
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Old 09-16-2018, 09:39 AM   #4655
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Taking more Saints than Rams

Taking ZERO Chargers

Saints in rebuy pools

Have a little Redskins and even less Broncos (no 49ers - saving them for later)
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Old 09-16-2018, 01:01 PM   #4656
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

100% on the Rams.
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Old 09-16-2018, 03:30 PM   #4657
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.

Tried to minimize Rams on Nitrogen since so many late entries used them and expected more to use them today, so wanted to be one of only entries to keep them available for a later week. Not sure if good logic.
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Old 09-16-2018, 08:04 PM   #4658
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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I'm on chargers, broncos, saints, niners, Falcons, rams.
Good week for the kid.
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Old Today, 09:41 AM   #4659
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week
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Old Today, 10:35 AM   #4660
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week


It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else and now I'm left taking a team I never would have though I would take in my entire life, but YOLO.
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Old Today, 11:39 AM   #4661
Bagliani
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Taking Vikings isn’t dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, it’ll be a great spot to use Vikings.
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Old Today, 12:36 PM   #4662
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Taking Vikings isnít dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, itíll be a great spot to use Vikings.
Sounds pretty reasonable, but you have to account for the uncertainty in that week 6 line. Things could certainly change.
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Old Today, 02:30 PM   #4663
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
Can't wait for the legion of 2p2ers coming in here explaining why taking a 17 point favorite is actually the dumb play this week
Not dumb

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Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
It's not. The dumb play was me using Minnesota week 1, trying to fade everyone else.
Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bagliani View Post
Taking Vikings isnít dumb obviously, but saving them for week 6 seems like the better play. Everyone will be on Houston that week, itíll be a great spot to use Vikings.
I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.
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Old Today, 03:56 PM   #4664
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Not dumb







Not dumb. I took some Minnesota myself for very same reason







I agree with this too thoug. I think I'm going to go with the Chicago, Houston, Philly, KC and maybe Jags this week and save Minnesota for 6.


Only took me arguing with you for 4 years to realize how important future value is in these things. I guess trying to bink it in week 3 isn't a great strategy.
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Old Today, 05:16 PM   #4665
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I just donít really see why taking Houston as 7 point favorites then MIN as 14-14.5 point favorites is a superior strategy to taking MIN as 17 point favorites Wk3 then HOU as probably 9.5-10.5 point favorites in Wk6. I donít know that the value gained in being different is big enough to compensate for the picks being worse according to Vegas lines. Especially because MIN is so unlikely to lose this week.
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