Nobody is good.


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i didn't say they were perennially good, i said they were a consensus good team. Most power rankings have them in the top 5 (consensus). Detroit & Baltimore otoh are ranked closer to middle of the pack heading into week 1. I'm not in a league where there's double picks required so i don't really want to pick a team that might be in the bottom half of the NFL. Sure the Saints could be bad but it's less likely

True, I misread that.

Detroit is also something like 1/3rd the ownership of the Saints and has no future value though.

I just think people make the mistake of "trying to stay alive" in these things rather than make the +EV plays. I know because I've done it. Didn't really start looking at this stuff the way JayHawk does until mid last year.

yeah, it sucks going the Detroit Lions. 1 of the NFL joke franchises. But that is precisely why they're 10% owned and B'More is 25% owned despite their win probabilities being 2% apart.

I guess I'm just operating under the assumption that Vegas lines arent as honed in for Week 1 when there haven't been any actual games played yet, hence my tendency to go with top team in week 1. But without data to support that it's just a hunch I have.

There's million dollar survivor pool on some new site. Saw this post yesterday: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...tests-1721934/

Having a hard time deciding on a 3rd & 4th team to pick. Love Baltimore & Detroit, but want to have 2 others for a sprinkle

Obv no New England or Pittsburgh

Denver is tempting. Only -3, it’s their 2nd best play all season

Rams are tempting if you don’t want to use them in 2 and don’t have double picks in 10. Tempting to use them as a 3rd team to pick, not as primary pick


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Chalk for me this week----
Some combination of GB/Saints/Ravens.

Just a few things which may or may not help people think about approaching these things:

The FV piece of the equation has more room for error and recalculation than the Immed ev piece**

** Except, predicting popularity in non traditional pools is extremely difficult and thus causes high variance in the immed ev piece.

A team's chance of winning is a certain %. No one knows what it is, but the % exists in the football gods' lockbox. That % does not "change" based on line movement or money line movement which comes from Vegas. Those lines represent the public's willingness to wager on a team. Still, the public does get it close enough that the variance associated with winning % is far less than the FV calculations-- but still certainly a non zero number.

Hope that isn't too confusing for some, or too basic for others.

No love for Minnesota this week?


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I think that's why traditional pools are better and more +EV. It's just easier to predict pick percentage.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but the more hokey the pool, I think the harder it is to predict pick %. Could be wrong though. I guess 2 strike pools could be better as it reduces variance and helps the chance your EV actually adds up to something.

We got Philly home on 3 entries. Was much closer than I would have liked.


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my big pool has picks due thursday

new orleans - 40%
baltimore - 19%
green bay - 17%
detroit - 7%
minnesota - 6%

That's great info. Makes me like my Minnesota picks even more.


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Mine does as well......$300 670 teams

NO 32%
BMore 26%
GB 13%
Det 12%
Minn 8%
NE 3%
Pitt/Rams 2%



Det/BMore offer the most EV this week in most pools (mainly because of FV) but moreso in yours because they are picked less. Picks in this pool are due Wed at midnight which I like. The earlier in the week, the less fish think about who to take.

Taking some Minnesota now. Baltimore’s pick % getting high.




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Yeah, I said that earlier in the thread that as Sunday continued to approach that BMore % would go higher and higher. Pederman 5 INT's in a half last year. It's just an easy play for people who want to use a team they don't think is that good while saving better teams. Why Lions were more +EV.

I'm having a hard time seeing Minnesota. Even at 33% ownership vs 3.3% ownership, New Orleans offers more EV by a meaningful margin. And I would say MIN has more future value as well.

Hard for me to come up with an argument for anyone other than DET, BAL, or NO this week.

Most on Detroit. Chunk on Baltimore. None on New Orleans. Sprinkle on Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota

Vikings line keeps falling

Had an epiphany way too late. Detroit is probably a pretty bad pick on Nitrogen. They allow you to buy-in up to MNF, so all the week 1 "rebuys" are gonna end up on them.

Welp see you guys next year! lol

Lol you can still rebuy!

2 survivor rules I live by.

1. Never take the Saints.
2. Never take the Giants




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Nitrogen not showing anyone's picks besides Packers.

Took Baltimore & Detroit in all my Nitrogen entries. Regged am equal amount of entries on Green Bay after the New Orleans loss




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I got 5 entries in a 200 buck pool with over 500 people. I had 2 on Baltimore, 1 Vikings, 1 Detroit, 1 Green Bay. Khalil Mack is single handlidly ruining my night. But on a positive note if Green Bay loses. 300 people will be done thanks to saints and packers lol