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08-06-2018 , 09:45 PM

#4576

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

I’d love to get into a double picks in 5,10 & 15 pool. Someone help me out!

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Quote

08-15-2018 , 11:34 AM

#4577

Frotl818

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 138

are there any $100 + (ideally $500+) surviors being run out there??

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08-15-2018 , 11:52 AM

#4578

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,686

hit me up for any big pools. will be on nitrogen but would prefer some bigger, deeper ones.

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08-17-2018 , 10:33 AM

#4579

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Baltimore & Detroit are slam dunks in 1. Detroit is far and away the best pick on the board

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08-19-2018 , 09:57 AM

#4580

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,864

Quote:

Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk

Baltimore & Detroit are slam dunks in 1. Detroit is far and away the best pick on the board

Suppose the rookies don't start? With McCarron hurt Balt def looks good but what if Bridgewater starts for the Jets? Still like Det instead of NO?

Disclaimer...I have done no future value checking at all.

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08-19-2018 , 06:41 PM

#4581

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Saints to 2 other great spots early in the season (2 & 5). This is the Lions best game all year (as things stand right now)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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08-20-2018 , 12:58 PM

#4582

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

Quote:

Originally Posted by Frotl818

are there any $100 + (ideally $500+) surviors being run out there??

Cappers Mall has a $500 one. It doesn't use software, picks just get entered in a forum thread each week. 21 people last year (9 already in this year and is still very early).

NitrogenSports has many options including higher than that but is all in bitcoin

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08-22-2018 , 02:25 PM

#4583

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

yeah clearly ravens/lions week 1..I'll probably do a 50/50 split on those 2. Maybe 60/40 to Lions.

My pool should be around 900 people, I got 10 entries in it.

Hopefully most take GB/NO. That's what survivorgrid says so far.

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08-22-2018 , 03:10 PM

#4584

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Quote:

Originally Posted by PropPlayer

How are the Nitrogen pools?

I feel like they would be sharper than normal since your getting more people well versed in math, probability, game theroy in the crypto world but could be wrong.

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08-22-2018 , 03:18 PM

#4585

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Quote:

Originally Posted by kdog

I think there are times to make exceptions to the rule (for instance future value isn't close to an efficient market and if you're gonna use subjective reasoning then try doing it for that) but for the most part you want to just honor the stated win probability.

Given it is the Lions and not a Drew Brees/Aaron Rodgers team, their ownership % will be 1/2 to 1/3rd of those teams and thus people being unsure about taking them is basically factored into the ownership percentage. The Jets "feeling like a live dog" or whatever you want to call it is priced into the pick.

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08-22-2018 , 05:28 PM

#4586

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,686

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

How are the Nitrogen pools?

I feel like they would be sharper than normal since your getting more people well versed in math, probability, game theroy in the crypto world but could be wrong.

disagree with this. in fact if anything it's crypto rich ppl throwing away money. lots of people forget to make picks.

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08-22-2018 , 06:07 PM

#4587

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

I've never played them, was just a guess.

Just figured it was more of like a poker/sports betting/understanding of game theory crowd as opposed to your sisters boyfriends pool with 300 people.

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08-24-2018 , 11:47 AM

#4588

ProfBets

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 1,976

anyone else notice that Zathras site is down? Says they're "too old for this sht"

Used to be one of the biggest and well run survivor pools year in year out. Anyone have any info?

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08-25-2018 , 01:31 AM

#4589

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,798

2 or 3 seasons ago someone joined a bunch of the mid stake nitrogen pools doing something like 32 entries and the first week picked every team (both sides of every game). Obviously that person didn't really think it out well and donated a bunch the the prize pool.

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08-28-2018 , 10:03 PM

#4590

trade2win

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 583

Know of a couple pools if anyone is interested pm me for details.

1. Is $100 entry gets over 6k+ entrants. If your in the north east you may already play in it it's run by someone with intitals SS.

2. Is $500 entry and got over 120 entries last year.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

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09-03-2018 , 11:37 PM

#4591

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Considering going Lions with all entries week 1. The Pederman starting for BIlls news is gonna push them way up. His 1 start was legendary last year.

Lions currently have no FV and will probably only be like 1/2 the ownership % of Ravens.

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09-04-2018 , 11:41 AM

#4592

bluebarracudas

newbie

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 33

I will be going with the Lions as well week 1. Balti has a few back end home games that should be very favorable too

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09-04-2018 , 05:09 PM

#4593

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Well I have 8 entries, not sure if I wanna go all Lions.

Maybe 6/2 Lions/Ravens

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09-04-2018 , 07:13 PM

#4594

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,766

I envision Stafford making a few ill advised throws that go the other way and Buffalo pulls the upset. I have 10 entries and I'm probably unloading on Philly.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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09-04-2018 , 07:30 PM

#4595

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

You're unloading on a team that is -2.5 that has future value?

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09-04-2018 , 07:32 PM

#4596

Bagliani

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 93

Love Baltimore this week. Lions are scary and don’t normally trust them but the first 6 weeks they usually play good and get everyone excited then choke. Plus darnold starting his first game On the road Monday night against this new Matt Patricia defense. Seems like a good spot.

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09-05-2018 , 02:58 AM

#4597

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

Grid has it 2/1 ratio in favor of Ravens right now, and likely climbing

At similar WP%'s, just hard to want to allocate any shares to B'More.

I think you see pools purge faster this year than last year. Browns are better and there just aren't a whole lot of terrible teams in the NFL right now. Doubt QB injuries are as brutal as last year as well.

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09-05-2018 , 10:13 AM

#4598

beansroast01

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 20,494

I'm taking the Saints. One mistake I've made a lot in previous years is taking a team in the bottom 1/2 of the NFL to win in Week 1, when things are less clear and they end up not being as good as people think. Saints are a consensus top team and Cardinals are a consensus bottom team.

Their next best value game for the Saints appears to be next week and I'll be taking the Rams then over the Cardinals. Week 5 they are a presumed TD favorite over Redskins, but there's still some good options that week

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09-05-2018 , 12:07 PM

#4599

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,536

Other than being the opposite, is there any difference in strategy for an anti-survivor league where you have to pick losers each week?

Quote

09-05-2018 , 03:25 PM

#4600

Onlydo2days

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 19,276

The Saints were 21-27 from 2014-2016 before last year. They lost to Tampa in week 17 despite 3 INT's from Jameis.

Not sure how that is perennially good.

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