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Old 11-07-2017, 10:52 AM   #4501
BraveJayhawk
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Went down in my biggest 2 pools with Houston. Had double picks 11 - 15 & triple in 16 & 17. Almost got bailed out somehow at the end.

Single pick pools throughout the season looking to have lots of options ever week with Houston & Green Bay now looking awful along with NYG, Cleveland, San Fran, etc....
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Old 11-07-2017, 11:53 AM   #4502
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Early pick % making Carolina look good this week.

Only in 1 pool remaining. Sad that only 26 out of 64 were eliminated this week. Feel that # should've been higher.
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Old 11-08-2017, 08:16 PM   #4503
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

130 left in my pool now and this week starts double picks. Everyone left has Detroit available so I'm definitely avoiding them. Steelers are a definite because only 30 people have them left. Thinking Panthers or Bears for the second pick. Lets go browns!!!!!
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Old 11-09-2017, 01:52 PM   #4504
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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This is why I try not to make my picks on Nitrogen until the last possible moment.
lol picked Caro just because.
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Old 11-10-2017, 02:00 AM   #4505
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I think Carolina is the top pick-----Bears are ok but their value in 13 and 16 is about the same as Carolinas in 15-16, and Carolina has better immed ev this week.
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:11 AM   #4506
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Be careful on the Rams this week. They are getting mushed hard. It seems every nfl general article mentions their offense. Haven’t seen anyone pick the Texans to cover and analysts all over the place are making fun of Tom Savage. Even this terrible handicapper from Doc’s released his Game of the Year on them.

Beware the power of the mush.
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Old 11-12-2017, 05:11 AM   #4507
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Carolina seems really obvious. For pools where I have multiple entries it's hard to find much else I like. Think I'll do a LAR, a PIT, and maybe a TEN. LAR and PIT both have a great W17, but there's no double picks in this one, so I'm not as worried about it.
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Old 11-12-2017, 10:36 AM   #4508
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Chicago in my 1 season long (no rebuys pool) that I have left. Fadeing Detroit in everything else and mixed it up with a handful of teams in everything else.
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Old 11-12-2017, 02:06 PM   #4509
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

7 left in my pool. Myself and 1 other took the Rams, the rest took Detroit.
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:15 PM   #4510
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Detroit was a real tease today. The pool I'm in with the biggest prize has pick distribution that more mirrors expected EV than other sites' pick percentages. Need to finally polish up my code to analyze EV so I can put in custom pick percentages and see what I get.
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Old 11-14-2017, 10:42 AM   #4511
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

There are 171 left in my pool out of 7,982. There are double picks week 13 if there are more than 50 people left.

I expect at least 100 people to take the Chiefs. Could take the Chiefs as well but is that terrible Survivor strategy at this stage? Nobody sees them losing but at what stage do you switch strategies and pray for the huge wipeout? Have the Saints available which I️ wanted to use for Week 15.

Outside of that don’t have a great option. We had double picks week 3 which blew up the pool.
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Old 11-14-2017, 04:29 PM   #4512
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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There are 171 left in my pool out of 7,982. There are double picks week 13 if there are more than 50 people left.

I expect at least 100 people to take the Chiefs. Could take the Chiefs as well but is that terrible Survivor strategy at this stage? Nobody sees them losing but at what stage do you switch strategies and pray for the huge wipeout? Have the Saints available which I️ wanted to use for Week 15.

Outside of that don’t have a great option. We had double picks week 3 which blew up the pool.
I don't think you switch strategies at any point. Strategy is always to maximize your EV, which includes picking contrarian where appropriate.

NO and LAC are looking like slam dunks to me.
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Old 11-14-2017, 05:37 PM   #4513
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm leaning Denver
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Old 11-14-2017, 06:54 PM   #4514
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Im thinking Lions and Cardinals for double pick pool. Like chargers too
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Old 11-15-2017, 05:37 PM   #4515
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

It honestly depends who you have left----

I do like LAC this week with the idea of fading them in 13 when they will be 80% owned----Saints have FV but their win odds/pop is so strong. I also do like House's Denver idea.

Avoid KC for sure----going back and forth on what to do with Jax.
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Old 11-15-2017, 07:37 PM   #4516
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

It just seems so, so hard to back the Chargers given Rivers is questionable and they are the Chargers. Lasting 11 weeks and going out in Chargers fashion would lead to a really, really long and hard offseason for me. I do agree that they should be avoided for week 13 so maybe I have to man up.

Given the Bills went to Nathan Peterman the Chiefs could be a strong play week 12.

I don't even see an active line for the Chargers and Bills.

Is the only reason NOT to take the Chiefs because the whole pool will be on them? There should be no way in hell the Chiefs lose. It's a Survivor pool so my mind is obviously to advance. The Chargers can blow a game against a college team.
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Old 11-15-2017, 08:24 PM   #4517
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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It just seems so, so hard to back the Chargers given Rivers is questionable and they are the Chargers. Lasting 11 weeks and going out in Chargers fashion would lead to a really, really long and hard offseason for me. I do agree that they should be avoided for week 13 so maybe I have to man up.

Given the Bills went to Nathan Peterman the Chiefs could be a strong play week 12.

I don't even see an active line for the Chargers and Bills.

Is the only reason NOT to take the Chiefs because the whole pool will be on them? There should be no way in hell the Chiefs lose. It's a Survivor pool so my mind is obviously to advance. The Chargers can blow a game against a college team.
Your goal should be maximizing EV rather than advancing which is why the Chiefs are a bad play. I think you're spending too many brain cycles on handicapping games when a whole army of people is already doing that work for you.

Having said that, the bad Chargers juju might be my only superstition in sports. They have something special out there.
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Old 11-15-2017, 08:47 PM   #4518
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

So say you take the Chargers and advance this week. You would automatically take the Chiefs next week?

Also I️ believe that if you are a handicapper (I’ve bet year round for a decade and haven’t had a losing year since 2011) you shouldn’t put that totally aside.
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Old 11-16-2017, 05:46 PM   #4519
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I noticed in one of my pools that the obvious value contrarian plays also get a lot of play, but so do the mainstream picks. Feel like it means I either have to dig a little deeper or look for spots where the mainstream play might be good value with a little lower pick %.
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Old 11-19-2017, 06:47 PM   #4520
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Went with saints and chargers this week and wow what a week. 100 people lost with the chiefs and got 27 on the patriots but they look like a lock so my pool will be down to 30 going forward. What an epic comeback by the saints
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Old 11-19-2017, 08:02 PM   #4521
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Was upset with Saints comeback but not going to matter anyway when Brock lolWeiler and the BroncLoLs lose. Fist pump for Chiefs loss was meaningless.
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Old 11-19-2017, 09:23 PM   #4522
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Faded Jacksonville, Kansas & New Orleans in midseason pools that were double picks this week. Boxed Chargers with Houston, Denver & Tampa Bay.

Took Chargers in the Zatharas 10$ pool that you can use teams unlimited amount of times. New Orleans comeback kept us from getting down to 20 from 2,000 starting.
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Old 11-19-2017, 10:14 PM   #4523
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I've got 5 entries left out of ~18 in one of my pools. Any thoughts on strategy in that situation? I think the only real factor is I'll need to try to spread it around with 5 different picks when it's reasonable to do so.
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Old Yesterday, 12:31 AM   #4524
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Chargers were surprisingly ez breezy-----Saints were blessed.

Finally some big chalk went down with KC.

Next week there are some big favorites which have be used by alot of people already. (NE/PITT/PHILLY/CIN etc) I suspect that someone like Atlanta or maybe Balt will be the most popular, being available to so many people.
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Old Yesterday, 08:50 AM   #4525
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

4 left in my pool

I took the Chargers, 2 took the Jags and 1 took Pitt.

3 went bye-bye with KC
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