Likely going Seattle in my 9 man. Only 1 other person has them available.

Debating between Houston and Jacksonville in the 64 man.

Philadelphia definitely the best pick. I meant I like Seattle best of what's left, because I already used Philly

Since I don't have Philly, seattle, or Houston available I will be going Jacksonville this week. Could be worse

10 left in my pool.

I'm going with Houston, since 5 of the 10 have already used Houston, and those 5 have already used Philly and 4 of them have used Seattle.

Watson injury changes things quite a bit now.

Yeah it might mean I have to take Hou now----

Not seeing any updated lines for HOU but imagine they are significantly lower. Lots of people may already be locked in to them. Probably going Seattle and Jax.

Razor sharp pick for sure. I was look at New Orleans & Seattle for the pool we're in. Will be doing 1 Houston for sure

For sure, wins are gonna be few and far between now for Houston, this has to be their highest % of winning next to the December home game vs SF and the final game of the season @ Indy.

I am still going Giants, gotta have big ones to win contests with over 13k left in it......

Indeed. I switched my pick to Jax

Texans in to -6.5 but I still like them enough to take them this week for my pool with 5 left - everyone locked in picks early after the Houston news, it ended up being 2x Texans (me being one), 2x Rams and 1x Saints. I quite like all three to win, but let's go Giants and Buccs I guess. I've already used Eagles, I like Jax but they may be my best option in 11 and I like the Rams to win too but they're 3 point smaller favs so have to trust the odds are right there and Houston are still 6.5 pt favs. I have New Orleans pegged for a future week too later in the season I forget which one so makes sense to stick to the plan and hope the Texans win. The one plus is now only 2/5 are on them instead of the 4/5 that were eligible to take them (I assume that would have happened if no injury) and obv their future value is lower now with banged up QB and no Watt still

Split my midseason pool between Texans/Eagles/Jax.

Why would you switch to a slightly less favored team when the 4 others that have Houston available are now less likely to take Houston themselves?

This is a perfect situation to switch to Houston let alone get off of Houston.

I don't see the reasoning for going Houston here. They are only a 1 pt larger favorite than the Jags and even with the injury it looks like they will have a much higher pick percentage than the Jags. That seems like a perfect spot to go Jags and hope for a Colts and/or Buccs upset.

What am I missing? Or do you just think that Houston's pick percentage will be extremely low for some reason? Survivor Grid still has them at 22%.

No. You're right. I responded that way because I've heard some friends talk about how 'know way I'm picking Houston now' inferring that you can't take a team with a QB that was previously benched. I assumed he was switching for that reason. That's not a horrible reason at all considering that Jacksonville has just as much FV as Houston does and probably will be picked less than Houston too.

For my pool, Houston is a better pick, because I'd rather have Jacksonville for my double pick weeks than Houston.

Long story short, don't get off Houston just because Savage is the QB basically. Not sure what his reason is - I may have wrongly assumed it was for the QB change and not in consideration of other factors as well that very well make it a valid switch off Houston to Jacksonville

fwiw in the midseason pool im hosting I actually have 6 Jax and 4 Hou picks submitted so far out of the 30-odd picks that have been submitted (about half the pool) but in the pool im in with 5 left where everyone locked in early this week it was 2 hou 0 jax

Will be interesting to see what the numbers look like by game time in the big public pools

I split my midseason picks between Hou/Jax/Phi and feel pretty good about it

Your point is well taken. In my case, the original decision decision was between Houston and Jax, and I'd been second guessing myself on my choice. I probably overreacted. We'll see when the picks are revealed.

locked

9 man - Seattle
64 man - Tennessee

In my regular season long pools

2 Houston
1 LA Rams

Lots of Philadelphia in midseason pools

My rebuy picks below

Lots of games to anti sweat today!




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18 left
2 out on BUF
2 on HOU
8 on NO
4 on LAR
2 undecided

I am on on HOU, I like my spot with this distribution

The fact that Nitrogen doesn't let you edit your picks was definitely evident this week. Hope no one took Houston over there.

This is why I try not to make my picks on Nitrogen until the last possible moment.

Still need Seattle here to step it up.

Crap....Damn Josh Doctson

So I'm in a survivor pool but you have to pick a loser each week. Same general rules apply, can only use each team once, but big exception is pool runs into playoffs and if you used a team during regular season you can't use them in playoffs/super bowl. Past three years, pool has alway through to Super Bowl.

598 entries and down to 16 remaining heading into Week 10.

Teams taken are Denver, New Orleans, Philadelphia, NY Giants, New England San Fran, Baltimore, & San Diego.

Interested in peoples thoughts on who to take in Week 10 and which teams have best future value. FYI 5 remaining entries have taken Houston already, 9 have taken Cleveland, and 11 have taken Indianapolis.

Have 2 entries left in main pool, but both entries are extremely weak.

Crap crap crap crap crap.

Looks like I am going to have to root for Tom Savage again this coming week:/

I'm in a pool that started week 6. 5 entries.

I took Houston all 5. I figured with the injury that people would get off them and it would be a very +EV pick (and I think you have to win out to win $ in a 12 week pool so I thought you had to gamble some rather than hedge picks so early) but I was wrong about the ownership %. Houston was about 15-16% and Jville/NYG were only about -6 at roughly same favored probability. So I figured that would be dispersed a little more evenly and Houston had no FV so said screw it, for this I'll just trust the betting markets and roll with it. Didn't turn out so well.

I did bet a little on Indy as a hedge since I considered that to be a soft line, Savage is terrible and the difference between him and Watson is likely bigger than Rodgers and Hundley.