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Old 10-10-2017, 01:36 PM   #4401
BraveJayhawk
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Got the Steelers loss. Only have 3 entries left that aren't rebuy pools. Hit the front end of my double picks entries with Cincy. Nearly 90% of people were eliminated from 1,100ish after the early games. Had Cincy paired with Oakland and Rams. There went that. NYG lost was a tough one to stomach. At least Cincy didn't falter at the end too.

Have 2 entries left in pools that have double picks starting in Week 11. Taking Washington in both of those (I don't care about pick break down for this one). Washington has the toughest Week 11-15 schedule of any of the highest favored teams in Week 6. Slam dunk easy pick there

Have 1 entry left in a pool that goes into the playoffs. If you haven't used a team during the regular season, you get to use them 2x in the playoffs. Otherwise, you can use them once. Looking at Baltimore, Houston or Tennessee

...

Look at Week 9 before you make your pick for Week 6. Hope I'm still. Week 9 could be a blood bath
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Old 10-10-2017, 07:24 PM   #4402
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm pretty much royally screwed as well. Annual check-in to announce I'm going out very soon. There are 701 left out of 7983. I have no idea if this thing is playing to the postseason or not. The pool has gone into the playoffs with 8k people and also chopped after weeks 15, 14, and 16 in the three years before that.

The pool is hard because Week 3 is a double picks week and everyone got destroyed. Whoever wins will have been on a combo of Packers/Eagles/Patriots.

Lost a bunch of entries week 3. Have one entry left after the Giants choked again.

My map.

Week 1: Panthers
Week 2: Steelers
Week 3: Eagles, Patriots
Week 4: Seahawks
Week 5: Bengals

Thoughts? Weeks 13, 15, and 17 are double pick weeks. Was going to save the Raiders and hopefully a healthy Carr to team with the Chiefs versus the Jets for Week 13.

Week 6: Falcons or Texans?
Week 7: Dolphins, Cowboys, or Rams?
Week 8: Vikings if not Falcons?
Week 9: Packers or Titans?
Week 10: Buccaneers
Week 11: Texans
Week 12: Cowboys
Week 13: Raiders, Chiefs or Jaguars?
Week 14: Broncos
Week 15: Redskins, Saints, or Titans?

I actually don't feel bad about Weeks 9-Week 13 as of now.

I am going to use the Falcons either this week or Week 8. I just can't see another opportunity to use them besides Week 13. If I use them this week that means automatic Vikings week 8 in London versus the Browns.

If I don't use the Titans Week 9 I would use the Packers and then use the Texans Week 11. I can use the Titans week 15.

I could use the Chiefs Week 12 and chance the Jaguars versus the Colts if Luck isn't playing, too.

I have no idea the status of Carr, Luck, Mariota, Bradford, and Stafford in a few weeks so this makes it extremely difficult.
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Old 10-11-2017, 09:42 AM   #4403
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
double picks

Thx man, that changed everything!

Picked the Jets last week in this one

How do you map your plans knowing you have 2x in 13-17 in a survivor that has 20k people?


This week it is ATL or NO for me


I just see the Saints as a lock coming out of a bye.....
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Old 10-11-2017, 10:00 AM   #4404
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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How do you map your plans knowing you have 2x in 13-17 in a survivor that has 20k people?
Take the teams that a good to great chance of winning that has the least amount of value in the double picks week.

Washington is the best pick for this pool format
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Old 10-11-2017, 11:08 AM   #4405
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I am still alive in my pool. I believe there is a little under 100 left now and I am thinking Houston this week will be my pick. Anyone else thinking Houston this week? I only need to make one pick a week and it seems like this week is as good as any to use them.
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Old 10-11-2017, 12:53 PM   #4406
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
Take the teams that a good to great chance of winning that has the least amount of value in the double picks week.

Washington is the best pick for this pool format
You can try the pool I am in where after double picks 11-15 there is the sadistic TRIPLE picks week 16 and 17, and due to the sheer size of entries, it almost always goes to the end. It is a 100% FV save fest.
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Old 10-11-2017, 01:00 PM   #4407
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
Take the teams that a good to great chance of winning that has the least amount of value in the double picks week.

Washington is the best pick for this pool format
How is Washington a bad pick week 15? They will be home, likely fighting for a playoff spot against a west coast team whose coach is on the way out. They will be around a 5-6 point favorite. Them combined with the Saints appear to be the
best double picks that week.

What future value do you see out of the Falcons?
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:43 PM   #4408
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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You can try the pool I am in where after double picks 11-15 there is the sadistic TRIPLE picks week 16 and 17, and due to the sheer size of entries, it almost always goes to the end. It is a 100% FV save fest.
We're in the same pool
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Old 10-11-2017, 02:55 PM   #4409
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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How is Washington a bad pick week 15? They will be home, likely fighting for a playoff spot against a west coast team whose coach is on the way out. They will be around a 5-6 point favorite. Them combined with the Saints appear to be the
best double picks that week.

What future value do you see out of the Falcons?
There's nothing wrong with having Washington for double picks in 15. A lot of teams will have them & New Orleans available though in 15.

The value in double pick weeks is being on lesser picked teams. There's even better value to having teams with higher win % chances that are also lesser picked.

In 5 I had 2x picks in a pool. I had already used Philadelphia in both entries, but I wouldn't have used them if I had them available. A lot of people were going to be on them & Pittsburgh in a 2x pick week. I didn't choose Pittsburgh. ~80% of the people that hadn't used Pittsburgh picked them in 5. I had a 25% chance of 700/1,100 people being knocked out of the pool. I'll take that chance. It worked out.

Late in the season is different, because you have to calculate who the most picked teams will likely be. As it stands now, Washington, Detroit & New Orleans will be the highest picked teams in 15 in double pick formats. I'd rather not be on them and hope they lose knocking out a high % of the remaining pool.

I'll end up having to take one of those 3 teams if I make it that far in 15, but I'd rather hold onto Denver and Kansas City and use them for one of the picks. Both those teams will be less picked in 15 than the other 3.

There's nothing wrong at all with taking Atlanta this week, but if you have double picks in later weeks, Atlanta has better & more spots to use them than Washington. That's why I like Washington better than Atlanta this week for that type of pool.
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Old 10-15-2017, 09:49 AM   #4410
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

2 Washington. 1 Houston. Washington & Houston with my 7 rebuy entries that has double picks. Last week to rebuy
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:22 AM   #4411
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

2 wash.

Ride or die
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Old 10-15-2017, 06:09 PM   #4412
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I ended up going with Washington. As soon as the extra point was missed I foresaw some crushing 1 point loss 27-26.

Then the Garcon miracle catch.

Without the offensive pass interference it's probably a loss. These games are seriously the most sickening thing people can go through for 3.5 hours.
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:30 PM   #4413
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Lost over 50% in each of my 3 pools. My rebuy pool was double picks. Carnage in both of those. Ran PERFECT today
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Old 10-15-2017, 11:53 PM   #4414
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Was between going 4 Washington and 3 Washington 1 Tennessee-----got shut out of the Tennessee pick so I ended up with 4 Washington---

Never in doubt-

#skillgame

Giants and Miami winning were obviously insanely good.

All of that work saving GB down the drain though with the Rodgers injury.

Anyway, next week a challenge.

LFG
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:48 AM   #4415
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by sheetsworld View Post
Was between going 4 Washington and 3 Washington 1 Tennessee-----got shut out of the Tennessee pick so I ended up with 4 Washington---

Never in doubt-

#skillgame

Giants and Miami winning were obviously insanely good.

All of that work saving GB down the drain though with the Rodgers injury.

Anyway, next week a challenge.

LFG

At least GB still have the Browns left...

Maybe Romo will be the GB QB by then
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Old 10-16-2017, 07:51 PM   #4416
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Looks like SEA is a good play for week 7 as they have been fairly heavily used in weeks prior.
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Old 10-16-2017, 11:39 PM   #4417
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Down to 5 of 72 in my original pool. Tossing up between Tennessee and LA Rams next week, Miami worth considering too. Leaning Tennessee I think with Mariota back always risky taking an away team but it's the Browns and the Rams game is on neutral ground so probably going to pass.

Got 3 entries in a new comp starting this wk too

I just don't see how Tennessee don't score too many points for the Browns so leaning that way at the moment especially after their strong 4Q today
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Old Yesterday, 08:32 AM   #4418
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Going with Miami in all 3 of my pools. Coming off great win, @ home vs a team in shambles, starts are aligned and this is the only time to use them unless you consider @ Baltimore next week or the week after

Cutler has burned me so many times in the past with fantasy, but my trust is in him....
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Old Yesterday, 03:26 PM   #4419
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

MIN, LAR, TEN, JAX, and MIA all look pretty viable from early P% numbers. Rams have SF at home in Week 17, so I probably wouldn't pick them in a pool with double picks that week.
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Old Yesterday, 04:49 PM   #4420
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Seattle is pretty pure with its win odds and miniscule popularity. I am just trying to figure out ways to win without them later, but as the pool begins to become decimated the FV becomes less important. Will probably end up spreading this week.
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Old Yesterday, 06:33 PM   #4421
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Very easy week strategically. There's a lot of teams that are 60-65% to win that will be picked at a fraction of rate of Tennessee, Dallas, Minnesota & New Orleans. None of those teams are more than 70% to win.

Miami & LAR are great choices. Plenty of good choices.

This is going to be a fun week.
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Old Today, 01:58 AM   #4422
sheetsworld
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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went gb, just gonna take favorite from thursday games... pats vs tampa next week
KC THIS THURSDAY----WHY MESS WITH SUCCESS??
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Old Today, 10:37 AM   #4423
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Seattle is pretty pure with its win odds and miniscule popularity. I am just trying to figure out ways to win without them later, but as the pool begins to become decimated the FV becomes less important. Will probably end up spreading this week.
I don't like Seattle in the pool that we're both in. If you don't have Houston for 9, it's a really bad pick.

Miami is an amazing pick for our pool. I used the Rams in 1, but I like them as well. Like Minnesota as well
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Old Today, 12:10 PM   #4424
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Very easy week strategically. There's a lot of teams that are 60-65% to win that will be picked at a fraction of rate of Tennessee, Dallas, Minnesota & New Orleans. None of those teams are more than 70% to win.

Miami & LAR are great choices. Plenty of good choices.

This is going to be a fun week.
Despite being a more popular pick, MIN has a notably higher current EV than LAR based on SG pick percentages, and future value seems like a pure wash to me.
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