As of Friday morning, only six teams are/were favored by at least a field goal in the betting markets. If that holds, it would be the fewest number of field-goal-or-better favorites in a single week since Week 9, 1994. So it's not an exaggeration to say that this is a historically risky week in terms of making NFL picks.
Really thinking of taking Philly in a pool with 20 entries left.
Mine has 23 and I did that all but 3 entries on pit or phi with more on pit in mine. Interestingly there's a rams pick and a ten pick among the lone ones
I passed on Pats this Thursday & I used PIT Week #1.
I know I should go with Philly today But, the same voice that says, "Save Philly for next month.".....is also saying, "The Giants won't start the season 0-5!".
Am I going to exit a $175,000.00 pool today on The Giants?
My pool with 23 left ended up with 12 Pit, 6 Phi (my pick), 1 each on Jets Colts Vikings Titans and Rams. Two of the late picks turned out to be unique teams which is interesting. The guys with unique picks are probably happy with how things played out although we probably lose two of those five on average.
I'm one of very few people with Pittsburgh left now in the event the bulk of the pool advances which is nice if the pool lasts until the end of the regular season although there's no guarantee that'll be the case.
Took Pitt in my pool with 5 remaining. One guy picked Pitt week 1, and one guy took NE this week. At worst, 3 of us will be on Pitt. Hoping at least 1 of those guys diversifies.
Took Oak in my 690 person pool.
Gotta find entries for pools of this size:
369
113
58
35
Giants should win today, however they are the least predictable team, ever. I can't get myself to bet a single dime on them. This might be more the fan in me speaking rather than the gambler.
So hard to not guys dump on PIT though everyone is on them. 3 picks left with 38 remaining... Thinking Philly / pit x 2 to diversify, especially for the road ahead
Already 13 of 23 eliminated in my pool with two pending as 12 were on Pit, so i'll be 8-10 handed next week (Rams looking good and other pending is Vikings so probably 10)
Texans seems like the obvious play for next week assuming no major injuries in today's game for Week 6 in a pool with only 10 left. Maybe Titans if Mariota is back and Luck is still out but I can't see myself picking anyone other than the Texans. How is it possible that the Browns are playing even worse than last year and who would have thought the Jets would have a winning record after 5 weeks...
Hoping not too high a percentage is on Hou next week, would be nice if KC beat then by 7-10 or something this week to reduce the numbers, lot of other pickable teams in theory but Houston stands out to me. I'm guessing something like 4-6 picks out of 10 will be on them but it could be anything given my pool is mostly recreational punters it'll probably depend how they go this week, hopefully KC wins.
Atlanta, Baltimore, Denver, New England, Washington and Oakland if Carr is back all have a non-zero chance of being picked even in a pool thats down to 10.
Ouch tough day for me fading the Eagles with NYG-----have a few stray entries left which used cincy and the jets,, but suffice it to say, the Giants loss was pretty crushing to my equity.
Down to 4 entries from 50.
Have to really run like jesus from here on it, but who knows?
Hmm maybe next week isn't as clear cut as I thought so many 10 pt favs @ opening lines. I guess i'll have to look at the future equity of all of them and try and figure it out + wait and see where Hou opens after today. Down to 9 out of 72 in my one remaining pool (busted two others) and it'll be 8 if the Vikings lose.
NYG seems done so you'll probably see them start to really change teams FV if they are on the schedule.
Skins seem good next week, very low FV and probably won't be super highly owned with other teams in the mix. I believe there are 4-5 10pt favs next week.