This is my thinking. I'm probably going to end up on Indy +13.5 or whatever it is by game day but Seattle should win; that said I think they're overrated this season and aren't as worth saving as most people seem to think they are. Taking Seattle this week even though I expect them to be the most common pick.

easy pick this week!

bears!

I would not be surprised in the least if Seattle loses. They are not a good team with significant holes. This isn't 2014.

People in weeks 1-4 of Survivor threads always emphasize savings teams for later weeks based off of recent seasons. That isn't terrible strategy but Seattle is clearly on the way down. They have the worst OL in the NFL, no running backs, average receivers, and an overrated defense. Not one unit on their team is as good as it was 2014-2016.Wilson has been running for his life 10 yards behind the line of scrimmage the first three weeks and it's hurt his confidence.

Remember Seattle beat the 49ers 12-9. The Colts are off a win and better than the 49ers. Seattle is risky regardless of the inflated spread.

As a Washington native, hardcore 49er fan, and even more die hard football fan I agree completely. I follow both these teams very closely.

This is the only week to use Seattle if you're going to. They usually start out slow but get going, this year isn't the case. The 49ers D line is stocked with talent, but still young, and every play the entire Seattle O line was on the ground. I bet the TN vs Seattle game and slept like a baby.

I've got 3 of 5 picks left, would of basically won the league if NE went down. (I play in a 100 man survivor of not very sophisticated players frankly).


We have about 60 players left. I have 3 entries, my weeks have gone as follows:

1: BUFF- BAL - PHIL

2: RAMS - CAR - GB

3: RAMS - OAK - NE

The biggest faves this week are (SEA/NE/ATL/GB/AZ/KC/DAL), and the only ones I'd feel comfortable picking. A lot of the noobs have used the premium teams early so I'm trying to navigate correctly and setup for some big falls in weeks 5-7.

All advice and insight would be welcome. I'm looking at Survivorgrid now to plot some sort of strategy.

I get that Seattle isn't very good but the Colts are probably the worst team they will play all year and they are at home.

I'd rather get rid of them and just trust the market price of a 88% fav and hope that NE/ATL/GB/AZ/KC/Dal slip up.

I think ATL will be the chalk after Sea. Don't see GB being huge owned since so many used them a few days ago.

Arizona is a good pick but what you said about Seattle goes for them even more. Their OL is also terrible and 2 best offensive players are a combined 75 years old. SF certainly looks live in that game.

If you think Seattle has limited future value, I'd argue it is even a better idea to get rid of them right now then. Especially while Wilson is still healthy.



Looking ahead, next week is really interesting. Pitt and Phi look like the only teams that will be 7 or more and I doubt Pitt is much more against a good JVille D. Still might use a lot of Pitt since people used them week 1.

I'm taking Seattle this week, but i'm also pretty likely to be betting on the Colts spread so not super concerned if I bust my pool, if I don't use them this week I could see myself not using them all season their future value really isn't that great and the other options this week are either small favourites or have high future value. I mean Arizona could be okay in theory but I am not sold on them at all and think they're far more likely to lose than Seattle in this spot. I kind of expect to be on the 49ers spread in that game too.

Ian Rappaport saying he thinks Luck could be out until November now. This significantly boosts the value of TN in week 6. Which is good for people who burned the Patriots in week 3 since they are @ NYJ that week and will probably be like -14.5.

How much are you putting on the Colts spread/ML?

Edit from previous post: It wasn't Rapaport who said that about Luck. It was a surgeon.

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/...927-story.html

I'll probably toss 100-200 on colts ml at +625.

down to 2 teams; currently on 1xSEA 1xARI

I have 6 teams left. Leaning towards Arizona and don't really want to take anyone else. Probably take Atlanta and then a spray on pray on NO vs MIA in my 2,000+ person pool.

It's a long ways out, but Week 10 will be a really fun week - especially in pools that have double picks that week.

Nearly everyone will have Detroit & Tampa Bay to choose from. They're playing the Browns & Jets.

I am in almost the same spot-----will have most on arizona but my spray on pray on is most likely going to be some no fv small fave piece of crap like jax.

Week 4 Team Picks
ARI 42
ATL 87
CIN 2
DAL 39
GRE 28
IND 1
JAC 5
KAN 19
NEP 35
NOS 1
PIT 1
SEA 194
Total: 454


Indy gotta be a mistake, person meant to go against them I'm sure. Pretty spread out after Sea. I thought Sea would be higher but 166 did use them week 2.

I hate to go all-in on a single team. I'm only paying for a few hundred bucks, so just the equity of getting to keep playing is worth something to me.

But I'm having trouble seeing anything other than all-in on Seattle here. I'll probably go 80% Seattle, 20% Arizona.

I could have written this post word-for-word, exactly. My two survivor entries are Seattle and GB, and I'll also have Indy and the points.

I also agree with onlydo2days - I wouldn't feel comfortable using Seattle after this week. Not at all.

from mine with a thursday deadline

SEATTLE	44.86%
ATLANTA	21.50%
DALLAS	7.48%
ARIZONA	6.54%
GREEN BAY	5.61%
NEW ENGLAND	5.61%
KANSAS CITY	4.67%
PHILLY	1.87%
CINN	0.93%
JAX	0.93%

went
3x zona
2x sea
1x NO

went gb, just gonna take favorite from thursday games... pats vs tampa next week

Arizona has the entire offensive line injured, and will be probably taking someone off the practice squad to fill it in.

http://www.azcentral.com/videos/spor...ies/106130066/

With any luck this news will be enough to reduce their popularity, bc I can't find anyone better for my pool. LFG

Have a little on Seattle also and probably will have some fishy exposure on the Jags---

Gambool.

The simplicity of it is what makes it genius.

I like it---you can stop thinking about it and focus your entire Sunday on anti-sweating. As long as you win

Your act is getting tired

What act? I'm just saying that if can handicap these games and be profitable, why not do it?

Right, that is the act I'm talking about