Idiot Texans needed 1 ****ing yard

I went:

50% NE
33% Car
17% Phi

Looked for a minute like I was gonna hit the 1.4% chance of losing all 3. Nice endings there. Feeling very, very good about getting 2/3 of my picks through.

If NE hadn't come back and GB lost later tonight it looks like 90% or something would've been eliminated this week.

Huge escapes for Eagles/Pats pickers. Still, fields are going to be thinned out a lot by the other results so far

Per SG numbers 34.7% are already eliminated, with another 31.2% still pending.

Ignoring current scores and just using pre-game odds we'd expect another 8.1% knocked out by the undecided games for a total of 42.8%.

Lol @ Houston not just going on 4th and 1

60-65% chance you keep Tom Brady off the field or a 0% chance, GG

Today went the most annoying way it possibly could've gone. At least if the Eagles lost, I wouldn't have had to watch that Packers game stab me in the back


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My pool lost just under half of its remaining entrants, but would have lost literally everyone if the NE/Phi/GB games ended a couple minutes early

I ended up surviving with one entry

Should've just loaded up on Philly like I intended, but being good I diversified.

Got thru with 6/9. Should've stayed off the Panthers. I really didn't want them but picked them solely to diversify.

Really wish the Pack lost.

Fun day. Truly hope people didn't follow BraveJayhawks's advice. To recap his advice this year and last few years.

-He advised taking team "X"- who is typically a 3-6 point favorite. They have great "EV" because they don't have much future value and are truly worthless week 13 and onward. Thus it's good to load up and lose on team "X" even though their QB can't hit the broad side of a barn, is injured, and their secondary is pathetic. Team "X" loses by 20+ points at home.

-Next he recommended taking team "Y." Team "Y" is a great pick because the other team options have great future value due to the pool size of 6-10k "always running the distance". Team "Y" is generally backed by 80% of the public, on the road, and has reverse line movement where the line goes from -6 to -5. In this case Team "Y" is led by a retired QB and minus a late TD was getting shut out by a team trying to tank for the 1st overall pick. The pool that was supposed to "run the distance" severely shrinks due to only the top 2 backed teams surviving (the two teams BraveJayhawk laughed at people taking this early in the pool).

So to recap go to SurvivorGrid, work backwards, click a few buttons with projected lines, W %, and P& and get eliminated in your Survivor pool by Week 4 following BraveJayhawk's advice.

shots fired

you make good points. GB and NE coasted to some pretty easy wins

Leaving out Pittsburgh, which looked like a pretty obvious "save", New England was 0.23 points higher in immediate EV than the next option.

I made a note in my spreadsheet to see whether or not that's their peak value. BraveJ seemed to think it definitely wasn't. I tend to think it is.

I have used BUF OAK GB. Who should it be in Week 4? Maybe ATL vs. Falcons or SEA vs. Colts?

What is your method to calculate that?

I had 5 picks where I took (3)Buffalo and (2) Rams week 1, various teams week 2 who all won.

This week I too Pit, Car l, NE, GB, Philly.


85 percent of my league took NE (God damn Houston) and the rest basically took GB. I felt like with 5 picks and the survivor grid I set myself up nicely for future plays. A lot of noobs are burning their teams early.

I was trying to be well diversified


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Exactly what I did.. Then with 65 left I was like, did I really need them? These noobs all used the best teams the 1st 3 weeks.

Should of held pit too.. Hind sight... But remaining picks still has them as an option

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I know they're gonna be like 50% owned but I find it hard not to just take all Seattle next week. Their FV is questionable to me with how bad their OL is.

And most weeks you aren't getting a team with close to a 90% chance to win. Also, a lot of the field used them week 2 vs SF so they can't use them.

Survivorgrid.com. It's basically just chance of winning * equity when you win.

Does anyone have advice on where to host a pool? I want to start one up this week with my friends. Looking at officefootballpool.com which is pretty ugly and costs $1/entry but seems like it can do the job.

Lol it's $1 per entry? And they try to pretend they don't know people are gambling. It does seem decent though, 1 of mine is on there.

@Gallagher, I do think you should do some of your own analysis for SurvivorGrid future values. Some of their lines for future games do seem way off. A team like Arizona that likely isn't going to be as good this year as thought they were slow to adjust on. Had them like -11 vs SF this upcoming week a few days ago. Now -6.5

I see the winning percentage, and I use them as well. I don't know this we know our equity before the week is over. I very against one opponent and our odds, but several dozen is beyond my pay grade, but not my calculations

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this.

see u next year.

When I originally mapped the season I had Dallas slated for Week 4. Still feel like a good pick?

Seattle looks better than Dallas

so tilting both NE+GB pulled it out - lost 2 teams on Carolina but have 2 left from the Eagles. Coulda been in an absurdly good spot.

Initially liking Seattle for next week as well

lol

Basically I picked teams this week that ended up being picked by approximately 10%, 3% & 3% across all the pools I was in those. Those teams were closing favorites of ~ 5.5, 5 & 5 respectively.

I faded the (according to SG) 28%, 28% & 12% picked teams. They were 7, 14 & 7 point favorites respectively. They also happened to be better teams to save for later than the 3 teams I picked.

Now if you're going to play hindsight lets at least be fair...

2 of my teams were blown out. The other blew a 14 point point lead and won on a last second field goal.

The Patriots recovered a fumble and escaped an interception on their game-winning drive and the Bengals bungled a 14 point lead.

I doubt you would've came here and trashed my picking advice if both Packers & Patriots lost. I was within a couple plays of advancing with 20ish% of my entries while seeing 90% of entries lost.