It's not. I could argue other weeks are better, but pools with over 500 people left without double picks are very likely to go at least 16 weeks. I'd rather have save New England for 16 vs Buffalo if I were to playing 1 pool only. I'll diversify and use them in other spots because I'm in several pools with multiple entries in most.

New England in 16 will likely be the highest EV spot of the entire season and with the fewest people remaining in pools.

think im going miami this week

Glad to have you in the thread Sheets. I did not remember that game, as I had a pretty rough survivor early season last year.

I'm looking back at SurvivorGrid now, and while I agree CHI is a reasonable play, I would be much more inclined to take TEN that week. No future value for either, EV is slightly lower for TEN, but the 57.6% chance of survival trumps the 33.6% chance of survival.

Yes the EV calculation takes that into account, but that's a single week EV calculation. The increased chance of survival gives you more chances to make +EV plays in future weeks.

Much like a 50-50 coinflip early in a Poker Tournament is neutral EV on that hand, but negative EV for a good player.

And I'd say the EV calculation also takes into account the double whammy principle. Interesting stuff either way.

Who did you get more shares of this week relative to the field then?

Car/Phi? They got pretty good FV coming up as well.

Philadelphia has a 3% average pick for 3 on SG. They'll be picked 20+% in both 8 & 12. Yes they'll be more likely to win both those games than in 3 but I like the separation and willing to take a 6 pt fav this week.

I'll still take some Philly in 8 & 12 though. Rather not load up on them in those week. 3 is a perfect spot to use them for multi entry pools

This is Carolina's 2nd best game rest of the year (currently). Their other is in 12. Lots of options that week


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Yeah I think if you wanna go off NE then you go to Carolina given there are other options in 12.

I mainly agree that capping games during the week is overrated, if you really like the Giants to upset Phi relative to the market price then you should be betting them, etc

However, where I do think capping and knowing football does have decent value is in the FV value. Those advanced lines are very soft and have low limits for a reason. Not nearly as efficient as the lines the week the game occurs. Teams could look OK now but you realize there is a lot of variance involved for them maintaining their current level of play as the season goes on.

Something like passing offense is the most sustainable aspect of football, so if you can save good passing offenses for late in the year (where they should still be good) and get rid of good defensive teams earlier (where injuries and declining play, regression to the mean occur all the time) then that is a good tiebreaker.

I never heard this before---pretty interesting.

ATL 1
BAL 7
CAR 16
CLE 1
DAL 1
DEN 8
GRE 184
IND 2
KAN 3
MIA 33
NEP 227
OAK 2
PHI 36
PIT 72
SLR 1
Total: 594

Man I hate pools with Thursday deadlines

I actually like it because I'm in two pools that are exactly the same in format, 800 entries single elimination so the ownership %'s don't vary too much.

Therefore I have a good idea of what %'s will be for the other pool.

Also, I feel like there is a small % of people who just rush picks with the deadline without much thought. Maybe not all the time, but it happens.

I really don't like Carolina this week.

Their secondary is by far the worst part of their defense, but through 2 games they haven't faced an offense that can take advantage of that. Brees and the Saints will change that on Sunday. Obviously New Orleans's defense is also a total dumpster fire, but this will be a much different game than the first 2 Carolina played.

Car -5.5 at 16 picked is a really good pick when their future value is not great and the other teams that are being picked much more than them have high future values.

As far as capping the actual game, I dunno I guess NO could squeeze it but I don't feel any stronger about their chances to upset than I do the Giants. Saints are still down Snead, lost Cooks, not sure if Streif/Armstead are playing yet but their offense is just not very good right now IMO.

i went yolo, took saints this week

Do you mean Carolina?

Saints would be awful

Assume you're in a losers pool

4x Philly
2x Pats (one pool only 8 left)
2x Phins
1x Panth

Why go 4x on Philly and 1x on Car? Probability on that game is the same and Car has less future value than Philly at probably like 1/2 the ownership this week.

All valid points. Gut played a small role.

I ended up on 1x GB 1x Caro and 1x Miami

Green Bay are the most popular team in my pool followed by Miami, then a gap to Philly, gap to NE and Pit then a gap to Balt/Den/Caro with no other teams picked. Pretty happy that only ~2% of the pool is on Caro as anything can happen that game but I think the Saints defense is just too bad.

Taking Carolina, Miami & Philadelphia this week

Same. LFG

I'm on GB and Miami

saints looking good

This week is looking like a bloodbath unless a few teams can pull it out late

Stupid Dolphins. I should have known better than to pick a road team this early