I'm sure he meant at this point in the season or in this week particularly that it would be a huge mistakes to do it

Oh---never mind then lol.

On first look Philly seems the best play this week.

When you first suggested that yesterday i thought it was a bit of a lemon, with the value they had weeks 8-12, but BJ's point about their possible popularity in those weeks is extremely valid and changed my mind. They are definitely part of the top tier.

Probably some combination of Carolina/Phi/Mia I think---lets see how the pop numbers and win odds move. First look has Mia really low at 8-10% and ugh even dumbass Pittsburgh which really needs to be saved is just begging for some exposure at only 12%. Crap. Not easy

My strategy has always been to put myself in a spot where I can take a favorite that isn't available to most others and they have to pick a bigger dog.

Edit. Yes, especially this early in the season I can't see myself doing it.

Sharp lines? I have a few guys I know that wish they were sharp lines. Books have been getting killed.

any thoughts on cowboys this week?

I'm saving Dallas for sure. The more I think about it, the more I'm considering NE here. Weeks 6, 8, 12, 13 have other good options and who knows what weeks 16 + 17 will mean to the Pats.

Think I've narrowed down to NE, CAR, PIT, MIA

I'm in 2 different leagues that are the same format with the same number of teams, multiple entries allowed. I have 3 in both. Weeks 1 and 2 I used Buffalo and Oakland in all entries.

Leagues are 800 teams, single elimination, 1 has 600 teams left, the other has 650 left.

What I'm trying to determine is when I should start using the picks on different teams and creating alternative pathways for me to be there at the end.

I'd hate to burn NE so early in the season but Miami is probably going to be over a 10pt fav in week 7 and it's hard to see the Pats being this good of value again until like week 12. The other two big favs are GB/Pitt who also will be higher value at other times in the season. Phi has some good games coming up as well.

Carolina? Seems like NO at home will be close to the peak of their value and at a low picked percentage. They do play Jets week 12 though.


What do you guys use to estimate ownership %? I find it hard to use something like the officepool average because my leagues are a little higher dollar ($200 and $300) and I feel like people are probably thinking about it a little more than the average league, but could be wrong.

Small sample in my pool as only about a third of the picks are in but Miami is the most popular followed by Green Bay then minor interest on Phi/NE/Pit/Balt/Caro

I ended up splitting my three pool entries between GB/Caro/Miami personally

According to Yahoo:

Green Bay -- 28%
New England -- 24%
Miami -- 19%

It really is an easy week to come up with something decent, and a tough week to know you are making the best decision.

These weeks where the teams with the high immed ev like NE and GB also have significant FV really makes it tough to get it right.

I am really not going to kill anyone for chalking out with NE/GB, depending on pool size and rules etc------I do think PITT is a real avoid though. Pitt just has to be saved for 5 or 11, imo.

Not going to argue with the save NE/GB options either, those being Phi/Car and Mia.

switched to PHIx2 CARx2 for now.

Taking New England this week.

Their best spot upcoming is Week 6 @ Jets which also has 2 picks that are close to as good with TEN vs. IND and WAS vs. CLE. Then they don't really get good spots until weeks 16/17 where they might not have anything to play for by that point.

The interesting part of Week 16-17 for NE is regardless of whether they need the wins, they'll likely be playing teams vying for the number 1 pick (at least NYJ, BUF is more of a question mark). Also, NE never really lays down.

Yeah, NE is tempting. Like others said, the only spots that might be better are really far away. You definitely add some sizeable uncertainty when you're looking 3+ months out.

If my pool had double picks in the last few weeks I'd probably be inclined to save them. If I were in a small pool that has a good chance of not getting to W16, I'd almost certainly use them.

Being in a very large pool, but without double picks, I'll probably split between NE, CAR, and PHI.

Generally I just favor going safer earlier in the year. You never know what QB injuries are gonna happen, teams going to give up by week 10, etc.

I love to read all this chatter about New England in 3

Zimmer I mostly agree but Cle @ Skins probably isn't going to be that great. What's Cle in that spot? +7? They've looked OK through two games. Don't see them being huge dogs like last year. And Luck should be back for Indy by then.

edit: Cle is @ Hou week 6

But NYG @ Den and Chi @ BMore are the chalk plays there.

Fish move?

What's the play then? To me it looks like Carolina but they do get the Jets later in the year.

Also re: NE wk 17. Yeah good chance NE just crushes Buff/NYJ in week 17 as those teams are tanking for picks. But they aren't going to be the only two teams that are playing out the year. There should be other average teams that are -400 against bad teams by then. Good possiblity atleast.

Wish I burned AZ week 2. They have no future value.

Maybe burn them week 4 vs 9ers but man I dunno they are so bad on offense. Probably won't be more than -4.5 for that game.

I agree.

I think the fish play this week is Miami. Only one week of tape on them with a new QB, needed a missed FG to win week 1 against a pretty middling team, plus they are home vs. Jets in Week 7.

1 of my leagues you have to have picks in by Wednesday. Field starts with 800, 600 teams left. So I can post the %'s from that here.

I find the officefootballpool.com site wide results to be inaccurate as far as %'s go, even though the order is likely correct.. So many $20 office leagues with tons of fish in there that the picks get spread out in those a little more.

I think maybe your late-season double pick format is skewing your vision here. Or I just still don't follow the strategy.

Contrarian concerns aside, you want to put together the best 17 probabilities you can. How many other spots will New England be almost half as likely to lose as the next best option? Very likely zero, and if not zero then probably just one.

Throw in that they're only at 24% pick% and I just don't see what better spot we're looking for to use them. If you have double picks they're definitely an asset in W16&17, but with single picks they don't look any more compelling in those weeks than they do in this one, and this one has vastly lower uncertainty around it.

This could be wrong but I feel like because of Browns last year and the hype about how bad Jets are this year that the Dolphins are going to be picked a decent amount this week for a team that is only a -6 point fav. Thus taking away a good deal of the EV from taking them that you would normally get from taking a 6pt fav when a top tier 14pt fav is on the board.