If I take 0 New England in 6, I might take a little Baltimore in 6. The rest will sbe saved for 15, 16 & 17

Mostly on Oakland. But have one entry on Ravens. Had all my entries on Buffalo last week. 4 pools. 2 with rebuys through week 4. One double elimination pool and one multientry pool (6 entries) also with rebuys.

Holy hell the jets stink

Who looks good for Week 3? Patriots vs. Texans? Packers vs. Bengals?

Thinking GB. Over 100 in my pool and not a single person eliminated in week 2.

Regardless of what pool it is I'm looking to not take New England, Green Bay or Pittsburgh next week.

Miami looking to be a great pick next week. Their only other play is in 7 and they'll be heavily picked that week.

I'm mapping out to line myself up for Weeks 12 - 15

Can't you see the sunshine?
Can't you just feel the moonshine?
Ain't it just like a friend of mine
To hit me from behind?
Yes, I'm gone to Carolina in my mind-----JT

Carolina and Philly look usable as well. Unlike this week, I will probably diversify a lot in week 3

mine either, half of them had seattle though

9 were left in one of mine and 1 person didn't submit.

I'm in a pool with 6600 left and double picks week 3.

I have multiple entries with those teams above available. How would you approach this week?

Double picks in weeks 3, 13, 15 and 17. Also double picks 14 and 16 if over 50 people.

Last year pool was chopped after wild card round. Two years before that it ended
Week 15 since all hell broke loose a few weeks.

What are the rules once it gets to the playoffs?

I'd take Miami & Carolina or Philadelphia if I only had 1 entry in that pool. Both those teams are nearly worthless to have Week 13 onward.

I wouldn't use New England till 16 or 17. Like you said, it took 9 upsets in Week 2 & 10 in Week 10 in 2015 for your pool to end in Week 15

If I had multiple entries in this pool, I'd mix in some Green Bay. I'd never use New England or Pittsburgh.

Yeah mine didn't lose any with 62 entries and 8 teams picked despite close calls for several teams

I'm thinking of splitting mine between GB/Mia/Car in week 3 but haven't decided for sure yet.

Rules for the playoffs are it resets and you have to pick the outright winner of all the Wild Card games. If everyone nails that rinse and repeat for the Divisional round, etc.

You can only chop with less than 10 players.

Philadelphia seems to have some good match-ups Weeks 8 and 12.
Miami has the Jets Week 7.

How much would you be diversifying versus going all in? I have 11 picks left.

Another question. How would you handle the Falcons and Titans.

Titans are home to Colts Week 6. We have no idea about Luck's status as of now. Say he doesn't play. Do you use them there? Perhaps going all in. Or do you chance it with other teams and hold the Titans for Week 16 home vs Rams. No guarantee you get even that far but just thought they were someone I was thinking about.

Same with the Falcons. Week 4 home vs Bills. Week 8 at the Jets. Week 14 home vs the Saints. Another where you chance it and home to make it to Week 14?

Basically do I just work backwards. With a lot of picks its such a struggle determining how much to save teams. When you save teams you have to take harder matchups which most of the time you lose.

Lol



Philadelphia might be taken by a smaller % in 3 (even though its double picks) than in 8 or 12. People are going to stack NE, GB & Pitt - either 2 of those 3 - or 1 of those with someone else. A lot of people will be taking Philadelphia in 8 and 12, because they won't have New England left and because Philadelphia is currently the biggest favorite in both of those weeks after NE. I'd rather use Philadelphia now and hope they lose later.

With 11 entries, I'd go at least 9 on Miami and pair them with Carolina, Philly & Green Bay.


Save them for Week 13 - 17. They're a great team to have for double pick weeks and conditional double pick weeks.


I lean on the side of always assuming a pool like this will go the distance. It's at least easier for mapping. If you get knocked out by Week 10, who cares? I'd rather be setup for the last few weeks. I don't care about injuries or any other variables.

Atlanta is a very good team. They're likely to be a very good team at the end of the season. New Orleans is likely to still not be good in Week 14. I want to have Atlanta for Week 14. Everyone who didn't take Denver in 11 will take them in 14. If you didn't take them in 11 and you have to take 2 teams that week, you'll be in great shape with those 2 teams


Yes. Work backwards, but I disagree that it's a struggle. I think it makes it much easier. It took 2 miracle upset weeks 2 years ago for this same exact pool to end in Week 15. Play for the pool going the distance. There's a better chance of that than not. Yes, you'll have to take harder matchups, but your reward if you get through is having the best matchups at the end.

I am just terrified of taking Miami with that many picks this week. Jay Cutler looked really shaky, they are on the road in a divisional matchup, they are laying only 6 points. 85% of the public is on them. I try to consider at least a little handicapping when I make these plays and a shady line completely backed by the public is something that terrifies me.

I'm in two different "pick a loser" pools. Standard rules, can only use each team once, but you can purchase insurance good for first 4 weeks for one "mistake". Also, pool goes to playoffs/super bowl. You have have teams left to pick, no team then you are eliminated.

Pool One only 18 people I've taken Indy & New Orleans so far. Leaning towards Seattle since I have insurance

Pool Two 550 people I've taken New Orleans & Philly, leaning towards to NY Giants in week 3, Again I still have "live insurance".

Lololololololol

I put in time on a response to your questions and you reply with "divisional matchup," "backed by public," & "I like to handicap the games." Think I'm going to throw up.

Take New England & Green Bay then and waste someone else's time


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Don't really like the Pats here. WR is a big ?. Much better spots for them later.

Looking at CAR MIA Pitt BAL and taking GB in a small league

I have 4 teams in my pool w/ 575 left. Week 1 went 4xBUF, Week 2 went 4xOAK - looking to diversify this week, currently have BAL/PHI/CAR/MIA as my 4 picks. just unsure if its better to do something like a 3/1 or 2/2 stack rather than 1/1/1/1

I wasn't trolling you or wasting your time. I was simply saying there is more to this than going to Survivor Grid and looking at it that way.

Point spreads should be taken into effect to some degree.

For example with a surplus of picks do you think it's an awful idea to put 1-2 on the 49ers this week? They are a 1-2 point underdog with the public backing the Rams heavily. Rams likely win but I think it's a spot to analyze if you want to gamble and save the top 8 teams for later weeks.

Agreed that point spreads/handicapping should be given some weight

This thread never fails.

If you're picking a dog at any point, you're doing it wrong.

No one ever said that point spreads/ML aren't given some weight, those along with pick % are given the most weight. It's when people try to handicap the games different than the actual lines that should be given absolutely no credit.

If you can handicap better, why arent you betting all these games you can pick better than the sharpest lines out there?

If there wasn't luck involved, I'd win every survivor pool!

This is incorrect.

In a week without better options, if there is an overwhelming number of people picking a small favorite, and its opponent had extremely low support and minimal future value, then that underdog can become a very strong play.

A good example of this occured last year on Monday Night week 8 when Minnesota was at Chicago laying a small number, and had a huge pick % (35% if I recall). Chicago had no FV and was a very strong play when combining all of these factors.

Chicago happened to have won as well, but even if they had not, they still would be an example of when taking a dog in a survivor pool is a good idea.


Note---Interestingly, that week also featured another play which was extremely close to being a good underdog play, with the Browns as a small home dog against the Jets who had 20% pick pop, Browns lost.

The idea is that if the team with huge popularity loses, part of the difficulty taking advantage of that is that you also need to win with your own selection, but when you can take that teams opponent as a tiny underdog, it creates double leverage.