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Old 01-03-2017, 05:02 PM   #4076
housenuts
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

If your goal really is to just get through this week, everyone be on the same next week, and then have advantage in the conf. finals, then just go with the biggest dog you have this week.

Oakland is +170
Giants +188

I too like Det +8
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Old 01-03-2017, 08:09 PM   #4077
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
If your goal really is to just get through this week, everyone be on the same next week, and then have advantage in the conf. finals, then just go with the biggest dog you have this week.

Oakland is +170
Giants +188

I too like Det +8
Biggest dog I have available is NY Giants, but I'm leaning toward Oakland to lose.

As an aside, I'm probably betting on NY Giants ML this week.
I'm tempted to take Detroit ML too, but will probably take Detroit +8.
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Old 01-09-2017, 01:28 PM   #4078
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Would like to hear some thoughts on this situation:

Season long survivor pool......579 entries, winner take all

3 losses and you're out, if there are muliple people tied for the lead at the end, then prize is split evenly.

There are currently 10 leaders with no losses, 38 with 1 loss and 65 with 2 losses

Pick through the SB, cannot repeat pick. All playoff teams in play

I'm one of the 10 leaders, and of the 10 leaders, 7 picked SEA and 3 picked PIT. (I chose SEA)

I feel like everyone is going to go ATL - DAL/GB - AFC champ

Does this mean that I should do something different? Should I not be assuming this?

If everyone goes this way, I feel like I should go with PIT or KC and then hope SEA can pull the upset and then I would be in the drivers seat. Is my logic flawed here?

Last edited by BigGameDame; 01-09-2017 at 01:35 PM.
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Old 01-09-2017, 05:56 PM   #4079
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

There are 3 weeks left and you just need to be right on one of them. Just take NE this week and you split the winnings.
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Old 01-09-2017, 07:12 PM   #4080
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

How do you figure I only need to be right on one? Im in a 10 way tie right now
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Old 01-09-2017, 09:15 PM   #4081
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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How do you figure I only need to be right on one? Im in a 10 way tie right now
Ah I misread your post. Thought it said prize split evenly among people at end...but I guess if you survive until end with 1 strike, you lose to ppl that survived with no strikes.
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Old 01-11-2017, 02:44 PM   #4082
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Down to 45 left out of 1150 or so. Need to pick one game spread this week. Here are the lines I'm working with:

ATL -4.5
NE -16.5
KC -1.5
DAL -4.5

Thoughts?
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Old 01-11-2017, 02:57 PM   #4083
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Fade everyone in here
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Old 01-11-2017, 06:55 PM   #4084
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Fade everyone in here
very helpful, thanks
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Old 01-11-2017, 10:26 PM   #4085
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cosines11 View Post
Down to 45 left out of 1150 or so. Need to pick one game spread this week. Here are the lines I'm working with:

ATL -4.5
NE -16.5
KC -1.5
DAL -4.5

Thoughts?
Wait until pick deadline and pick the one that Vegas odds have changed the most in your favor
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Old 01-11-2017, 11:18 PM   #4086
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
Wait until pick deadline and pick the one that Vegas odds have changed the most in your favor
Used that last week and it worked. thanks
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Old 01-12-2017, 07:10 AM   #4087
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Curious if it makes sense to hedge a little bit here
20 person league
3 people left, 1st is 20k

I have Pit,KC,Dal,Hou,Atlanta
Player 2 has only New England left
Player 3 has Dallas and New England left

I think most logical pick is probabaly atlanta?

Would it be worth betting Seattle +5 and,hit a middle?
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Old 01-19-2017, 01:07 PM   #4088
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Hope you rolled with Atlanta. Do you win because they have no picks, or do you need Pit to win now?
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Old 01-19-2017, 06:50 PM   #4089
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Season long survivor but picks reset for the playoffs. $20 entry with $1168 up top.

There are 4 of us remaining including myself. Everyone only has New England and Green Bay left.

Should I pick New England hoping the other players pick Green Bay and that Green Bay loses or pick Green Bay and save New England for the Super Bowl and then likely split the money 3-4 ways?

There is obv a $ ceiling if I were to choose Green Bay as if everyone chooses Green Bay then I lock in $292 for myself. But I were to choose New England, I have a greater chance of winning the whole thing of $1168.

Interested to hear what you guys think
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Old 01-21-2017, 10:11 PM   #4090
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Going to roll the dice picking New England hoping for a big score
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Old 01-22-2017, 12:45 AM   #4091
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

The ceiling is the same for both teams and I expect everyone to be on NE. They are favorites and GB is a 6 point dog.
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Old 01-24-2017, 03:08 PM   #4092
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThreeBallPaul View Post
Going to roll the dice picking New England hoping for a big score
How'd it play out?
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Old 01-24-2017, 03:09 PM   #4093
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
How'd it play out?


1 person chose GB, the other 3 NE.

So we got $392 each
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Old 07-30-2017, 07:50 PM   #4094
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

About that time of the year.

I'm looking for...

A double picks in Weeks 5, 10 & 15

A 2 or 3 strikes pool with or without double picks during regular season

Same as above but goes into the playoffs without the teams resetting


Looking forward to yelling at the television this season!
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Old 07-31-2017, 10:01 AM   #4095
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk View Post
About that time of the year.

I'm looking for...

A double picks in Weeks 5, 10 & 15

A 2 or 3 strikes pool with or without double picks during regular season

Same as above but goes into the playoffs without the teams resetting


Looking forward to yelling at the television this season!
just seeing this thread refreshed makes me excited - cannot wait for football to be back and controlling my weekends.
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Old 08-24-2017, 11:02 AM   #4096
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Anyone? Help!
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Old 08-25-2017, 10:29 AM   #4097
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I have never participated in a NFL Survivor Pool before. Are there any resources or general suggestions that would improve my odds tremendously?

If it is relevant:
-high buy-in
-winner-takes-all
-each team only allowed once per season
-no spreads, all picks are ML

I´d appreciate a few pointers or suggestions from people with experience.

Thank you!
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Old 08-27-2017, 10:22 PM   #4098
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by iip View Post
I have never participated in a NFL Survivor Pool before. Are there any resources or general suggestions that would improve my odds tremendously?

If it is relevant:
-high buy-in
-winner-takes-all
-each team only allowed once per season
-no spreads, all picks are ML

I´d appreciate a few pointers or suggestions from people with experience.

Thank you!
Know whoever is running the pool and make sure they are trustworthy. Take it from me, it sucks when you win and then have to fight to get paid.

Also, transparency, all participant's picks are available to see before kick-offs. Usually it's done online, but some old school pools are emailed out as an Excel Spreadsheet.

High Buy-in is a relative term, but pools between $25 and $100 per entry are nice entry point. Also, if pool offers "insurance" meaning you can enter through first 4 weeks if knocked out is nice too.
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Old 08-30-2017, 01:46 PM   #4099
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

@PropPlayer if you could do another thread like last year's that had bunch of survivor pools and info, that'd be great. Idk bout ya'll but I really appreciated those threads. Is Mulebennet running another this yr etc? I know Zathras is there as per usual
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Old 08-30-2017, 01:48 PM   #4100
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Anyone remember the website which allows you to map out your picks and color codes the teams by how much they're selected?
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