I agree, that is factoring into the decision to avoid Dallas. Rams seem to have steamed a bit, here's hoping it is smart $.

Are you guys heavy on DET ML?

Being the only one on NE is nice.

SD, oak, ten, dal losing would be nice.

thanx chargers :/

SD and ten a good start. LA can lose too. Would prefer just winning out this week. Asking a lot, I know.

alot of dogs go to heaven today

Will need to assess lines, but early feeling is Atl next week as they should be decent favorites and few, if any, of the 5-7 remaining can take them

Here is the current status of the Pools I partook in this year

Pool 1: Started with 978 and 14 is still alive. 7 have survived this week and 7 are still waiting for results

Pool 2: Started with 80 and 2 is still alive. 1 has survived this week and 1 is pending.

Pool 3: Started with 69 and it just wrapped up this week with 1 winner

Pool 4: Started with 1,250 and 20 has survived this week with 9 pending.

I'm in "survivor" pool where you pick a team to lose each week.

We had 538 entries.

Cost was $100 per entry, plus $50 if you want insurance through week 4, and $100 more if you want a Bye good through week 9.

Going into Week 17 we have 4 participants remaining. One of them has Cleveland. This pool goes into playoffs, through Super Bowl. If you have no team left you are out.

I have the following teams to consider for Week 17. Houston, Denver, Detroit, NY Giants, or Philadelphia

I've proposed a chop of 18k each and play it out for remaining 12k. Note that 5th place was paid out already in Week 16, leaving 84k in pool.

I'd like to hear peoples thoughts on pros/cons of chopping, and who they'd take from teams mentioned for Week 17.

Prize pool is $87,000

1ST PLACE = $60,000
2ND PLACE = $10,000
3RD PLACE = $8,000
4TH PLACE = $6,000
5TH PLACE = $3,000

I might buy some of your action depending of who everyone has left. You could be a in a good/great spot. Check your PM


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Detroit and then Houston are your easy picks the next 2 weeks.

For Week 17, the most popular picks are Indy (34%), Pittsburgh (20%) and Seattle
(11%).

I'm 3 handed in my midseason pool now (out of 35ish). SD massacred the field, they were hugely overpicked in my pool vs Cleveland.

Leaning Washington this week assuming NYG rest their starters as Washington need to win to make the playoffs and it's a meaningless game for the Giants - if not I have no idea. Maybe Colts or Vikings if Giants are playing for the win?

Picks don't reset for playoffs; I made a small mistake in picking too many NFC contenders but still have Seattle (and Detroit if they make it but I doubt they're pickable at any point)

On the AFC side I have all of the teams that are going to make the playoffs available. My opponents are more evenly split between the two conferences in who they can pick, although all 3 of us have NE left. I think my week 1 pick for the playoffs is going to depend on what happens with KC/Oakland, although Pittsburgh is obvious too vs Miami

I'm in search of advice on whether it's possible to hedge a survivor pool in week 17 when I need to make 2 picks. The top prize is $100,000 which will be split amongst those left after the week...currently 12 left. I want to assume everyone picks correctly so worst case pool is split evenly netting me $8,333. I would like to walk away with a minimum of $2K but am unsure the best way to hedge when I must make 2 picks (if it's even possible).

My realistic available picks:

1:00 PM Games
Jacksonville @ Indy (-4.5)
Chicago @ Minnesota (-4.5)
Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-6)
4:25 PM Game
Oakland @ Denver (-2)

Please reply with suggestions on how to make this a profitable survivor pool. Thanks for any and all assistance.

I haven't looked at moneylines but will assume for this post all dogs at +200. If higher than that, better for you.

Bet 3k on Chi
Bet 3k on Carolina

Possible outcomes:
Chi wins, Car loses = +6k - 3k = 3k
Car wins, Chi loses =+6k - 3k = 3k
Chi and Car lose = 8.3k (or more) - 6k = 2.3k

What about using ATS bets instead which leads to ability to win BOTH the pool pick and the ATS pick? Thoughts?

Well Ats picks are 1 to 1 or less, so you'll have to risk more to win less...of course you also have the possibility of winning both

What about taking the point spreads on the two teams I pick against (roughly +5.5 for each) for $1.5K each. Below are the possible outcomes...

1) I win both my pool picks but loose both ATS picks = $8,333-$1,650-$1,650 = $5,033
2) I win both my pool picks and both ATS spreads (picks win but don't cover) = $8,333+$1,500+$1,500=$11,333
3) Win win both pool picks but win just one ATS pick = $8,333+$1,500-$1,650 = $8,183
4) I lose in the pool but win both ATS bets = $1,500+$1,500=$3,000
5) I lose in the pool and win one ATS bet = -$150

Thoughts? Worst case I lose $150, best case I win somewhere between $5,033 and $11,333 or even a lot more if others are eliminated

You seem able to do the math. Just do what makes you most comfortable. Personally I'm not much of a hedger

Do you have access to an online book?

If so utilize the if lose feature.


Bet $1,500 on Carolina ML
If lose $3500 Chicago ML.

But if you are trying to lock in just a profit that means you are taking a 1pl game and the den/Oak game which is suboptimal spot to be in just so you can hedge

I dont know of any books that do an if LOSE bet.

we were down to 8 last week.. luckily i hedged when took chargers for my pick

Down to 7. I'm likely taking ATL as they are my best moneyline pick available and no one else can take them. Not going to hedge.

SD was really my only play last week.
Someone had NE left, well played by them.

Double picks in my remaining league, can re use teams. 113 entries left of 2k starting.
Probably go with the biggest faves.
This goes into the playoffs.

in one loss allowed leauge.. going eagles and hoping only 2 left pick wrong