I read it and enjoy the content. Helps me solidify or question my own thought process and ideas heading into the week

uh i told you so

Chalky week

Surprisingly no carnage this week unless Minny loses tonight which would be fantastic. Got through with Carolina and Dallas.

Good pick

either cowboys or kc next week

I'll be deciding between KC, Green Bay and Dallas next week I think.

I'll have one Vikings pick, they are maybe possible if they crush this week but i'll probably save them for Week 14 on the off chance it gets that far.

Dallas should beat the Browns but I can only pick them once and may end up just saving them for something like their home game vs Baltimore or maybe home vs Buccs or Lions late in the season if it gets there. Also a maybe.

KC should beat Jax at home pretty easily, that's a strong possibility. Can only pick them once as well though and they have the Buccs in week 11 and the only other obvious pick I can use that week is Giants at home to Bears, so I might save them as well, idk

Green Bay I can pick in both entries and they should beat the Colts pretty easily at home, their only other pickable weeks seem to be week 10 away to Titans and week 15 away to Bears and while the latter is the more appealing of the two, neither stand out so if the Vikings lose i'll almost certainly take Green Bay as my pick if i'm down to one entry. If I have both left i'll probably take them for one pick and decide between KC and Dallas for the other.

Will wait and see whether the Vikings win today I guess. If they win I still have 2/5 entries and will have to use two of the four above, probably Green Bay plus one, and if they lose I will be heads up with just one entry left since 3/5 entries in the pool have the Vikings this week so I can do some analysis of what I expect my opponent to take each week and figure out the best path from there. I expect the Vikings to win though so I think i'll need two picks. I think i'm likely to end up taking Green Bay for one and then I need to decide whether I want to take KC vs Jax this week and Dallas vs Baltimore in Week 11 or whether I want to take Dallas vs Cleveland this week and KC vs Tampa Bay in Week 11. Leaning towards the first option I think, although it seems very close.

Anyone want to comment on whether they think KC week 9 and Dallas week 11 or Dallas week 9 and KC week 11 is better EV wise?

i just pick winners, all on gut feeling

Prime. So many chalky clowns on Minny

Looks like the Vikings are going to lose so i'm about to be heads up in my pool with 1/2 entries from the 31 that started. Unfortunately it's my picked New England entry that advances, although given we're HU now and I won't be using them for at least a few weeks that matters a bit less. Only a small pool, but would still be nice to win it in only my second year of following the NFL

I do have Seattle, Pittsburgh and Dallas to play with now, but I lose KC and New England. I'd been trying to keep my entries relatively even in remaining teams equity

My surviving entry is

KC/Car/Mia/Was/NE/Ten/Cin/Den

My opponents entry is

GB/Car/Dal/Was/Pit/Buf/KC/Den

So we've both used Denver, KC, Washington, Carolina

He can't pick Pit/Buf/Dal/GB
I can't pick NE/Mia/Ten/Cin

Despite him having the Pats, I think I like my overall future value slightly better although it's very close. We agreed on 26bi for winner, 5bi for 2nd since he asked me to chop.

No Thursday game picks except the week it has 3 games it's allowed, single elimination

I think this is the plan going forward

Week 10

I can pick GB (probably will since he can't take GB, Dallas or KC and therefore has to end up on a smaller favourite than me) and can switch to Dallas or KC if a lot of money steams against Green Bay or someone gets injured etc.

He'll have to pick Vikings coming off 2 losses, or a small favourite like Giants or Chargers or use his Seahawks pick against the Bills if he wants a 7 point fav. I'm guessing Seahawks is most likely followed by Vikings then Chargers?

From week 11 on it gets very interesting.

Jesus.

I had the Titans this week, too bad Denver/Dallas/Jets all snuck by with wins

Hey look, the Vikings lost a road divisional game

Hey look, a team picked by 40% of people lost and everyone else had their ev nearly double.

People who bet on home divisional teams must have cleaned up at the books this week!

Of the four people giving you flack on page 38, I'm guessing they had a combined 50 entries left and 0 were on MIN.

I think I am on Seattle at home against Buffalo. According to Yahoo, 38% are going with Dallas while 35% are using KC.

Dallas has future value in Week 11 at home against Baltimore and in Week 15 at home against Tampa and Week 16 at home against Detroit

KC can be used in Week 11 at home against Tampa and at home in Week 15 against Tennessee

Seattle's future value: Week 13 at home against Carolina. Not sure I'd trust them in Week 11 when they host the Eagles.

Need to wait for pick %s to flesh out more. GB, SD, Sea all should have pretty good win odds and if 73% are on DAL/KC a few of the above must have a low pick rate.

Someone hijack your account?

Yeah I'm planning for the future by looking at teams that are hosting non-divisional rivals

Week 10 seems like it would be tough

MIN didn't even care by the 4th Q, wtf were they doing running right up the middle which hadn't worked all game and taking their sweet time when they were down by 3 possessions? Shoulda seen that coming but just sux when the team u pick doesn't even give a sht. Barely survived this week w/1 entry on NE.

playing in a leauge w 200+ entries majority from mid west lost 50+ people on minnesota game lulz

I would've expected more. They were picked by 40% of people on major sites. This is why you always stay away from the heavily picked teams. They weren't even a big favorite either. In fact from an ev standpoint, Chicago was a better pick.

I hope you're crushing your bookie by pounding the home divisional dogs every week!

Wow no kidding, some actual real survivor pool strategy.....

Thinking Green Bay for this week at this stage. My opponent can't use GB, KC or Dallas so i'm pretty sure he's going to use Seattle (who I can use as well), with a slight chance of SD. I might switch to KC or Dallas as well (my opponent can't use either). Just have to figure out which team I like more, and whether I want to pick Dallas or KC or NYG in week 11

Week 10 seems tough too, Chargers could be value especially if they look good this week and Cardinals seem like a reasonable pick too