Take this 'analysis' to the Week 4 thread


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Decided to go with Cincy tonight...

Thursday night games scare the bejesus out of me, think Ill go Arizona.

Not taking any Cincy. Was planning on taking a little of them, but they're now somehow the most picked team this week.


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I wanted to take Detroit but I just couldn't make myself do it. It's a small pool, no need for that kind of risk yet.

Moved on with Cincy in 1 Pool and still need to make picks in 2 others.

Picked cincy in 3 of 5 entries. Gotta find a couple others to roll with now

Picked cincy then changed it to Arizona last minute Oh well

This is the Survivor thread so I think it belongs here.

Why? Is there something us cappers can exploit and make tons of money by doing so?

Switched back to 2x Was and 1x Ari. It's going to be the two sheep picks, but with so few entries in the pool I think i'm fine with it.

Wat?

Maybe you're just superstitious?

Maybe a little, are you?

I'm not superstitious but I am a little stitious.

Redskins

Washington in Rebuys (rebuy through Week 6 / can rebuy 3x). Washington in most of my standard pools. Houston, Minnesota & San Diego in larger field pools


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I have NE in one and PIT in the other. Patriots need to turn it up.

using New England this week of all weeks seems really bad. You didn't want to wait for Brady to come back?

Nah

I was going to hit New England hard if Jimmy G started. Didn't touch them with Brissett.


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Up 13 half way through 4Q. Chargers go chargers. Unreal


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So is New England the lock of the century next week or is it a trap? I was going to take Denver next week but probably not anymore. Maybe a good time to get Indy but they are traveling from London

I'll win one of my pools if the Steelers hold on. Out of the other due to the NE pick.

Glad I switched back to 2x Was and 1x AZ instead of 1-1-1 with SD so I lose 1 entry, but my pool loses 6/16 entries this week (4 AZ, 1 SD, 1 Caro) with none pending so I go from 3/16 entries to 2/10 and actually improve slightly in equity. I'm now the only player left in the pool with more than one surviving entry.

My surviving entries are Sea/Car/Dal/Was and KC/Car/Mia/Was

Obviously at least one of my week 5 entries will be on the now we have Tom Brady again Patriots, i've done well not picking away teams but it's against the Browns, coming off a loss and shutout with Tom Brady returning. Unless there's massive steam against the Patriots again and I doubt it or Tom Brady gets injured in practice, they'll be one of my two.

Caro is already good for my two entries so that's out, plus they're out of form. Denver is a possibility depending what the lines do given they're at home even though Atlanta played well this week. Second Patriots pick is possible, but probably unwise EV wise since if the Pats lose, i'd imagine something like 7 of the 10 entries will bust this week.

Green Bay is a maybe at home to the Giants, especially if the Giants play badly this week.

Theoretically Indy is possible but I just can't pick them after their performance this week and travel so that's out.

I think i'll either make the fish move and do 2x NE and move to likely having 2/7-9 entries if they win, or more likely 1x NE and 1x GB or Den, i'll wait and see what the markets do this week before locking anything in.

Week 6 looks good for Packers/Texans/Seahawks, Packers would be an obvious Week 7 pick, but my pool doesn't allow Thursday game picks. I guess I can use them in week 9 for at least one entry, and maybe i'll use the other this week if I don't take the Pats x2. I can use Seahawks on one of my two entries for Week 6. If i'm ever going to use Tenn it's the week to do it but I don't really like it even at home vs Cleveland. Cinci are a Week 7 pick for at least one of the two, other would be GB but it can't be so maybe Falcons or Chiefs

Patriots next obvious pick is week 13 if I don't use them this week or maybe week 11 and there's a decent chance the pool might be over by then, so i'm not losing that much future value with only 10 entries left if I 2x it this week I guess. I'll have to think about the EV of having the by far biggest fav twice vs the 'oh **** I botched having two entries to one' equity if the Pats lose and 7-8 of the entries bust this week on them including both of mine.

It's hard to anticipate what the other entrants in the pool will do beyond probably pick New England this week because none of them are regular sports bettors to my knowledge and they regularly pick underdogs/random small favourites because they like the team or whatever.