Life is easier when you haven't used Green Bay or New England in any of your remaining entries and only used Seattle in 1

What's my game plan in a 13 remaining pool in which 1 player has 3 entries left still, I only have 1? Last week he took 3 different picks NE/GB/NYG but in weeks before that was usually doing 2 picks on 1 team, 1 on another.

In this spot should my future value and separation really be stressed more then usual? I've already used most of the top teams, the only advantage I have is being only 1 of a few people that have NE left.

Down to 3.

I have used: NYJ, PIT, NE, SEA, GB
#2 has used: MIA, CAR, HOU, STL, ATL
#3 has used: GB, ARZ, NE, IND, ATL

How much bleach should I be gargling this week?

Eyeing DEN, MIN and DET.

So you could've picked a variety of different teams last week to have a 10-point favorite this week. Instead, you'll have a 4-point favorite.

So sick, you were so close to winning it outright last week though...GL

Yes he could have. And he likely would have been knocked out if he did that. If I remember correctly, 4 out of 5 of your picks lost or something like that.

I don't want to get into a debate of what was the +ev play. I just thought your comment was sort of dickish, condescending, and ironic, especially given the fact that there were alot of upsets last week and quite a few of your entries went out (and very nearly all of them).

That's not the point. Not looking 1 week ahead is really stupid. He could've chosen between 4 other teams that were at least 6.5 point favorites that would've left himself in a much better position in just the next week. If you want to play the hindsight game, we can do that. 2 of those teams won. He also could've chosen Denver or Philadelphia - both better selections than Green Bay for him last week. They both also won


Smart decision. Don't get into a debate you can't/won't win.


Not going to disagree with the bolded part. Lol at the 2nd part. That doesn't matter at all. You can't control who wins or loses any game. That's not the point of these pools. The point is to give yourself the most EV going forward

Results oriented people itt

Edit: They're everywhere

Funny I pretty much use BraveJayHawks logic for my teaser plays, but not so much for Survivor. It's been a weird year, a lot of lines were perception driven and not WP driven. Patriots a pick? Lol really. Saints a 10 point favorite. A lot of rookie QB's and hype led to these upsets, but I think now the lines are about where they should be.

Not sure how big the pot is and when you have to get your pick in by but hedging is an option, just sayin'.

Where there is a will, there is a way.

Easy. Denver. Minn and Detroit will both lose.

Best off asking the other 2 players if they want chop out some of the prize pool

Classic Eddy. Denver has legit future value. Detroit has 0. Minnesota has a good game in Week 15 I think

I get the future value, but this is a very tough week. Why would you take a team that will lose?

You said that the spreads are now in line or more in line at this point. Denver & Minnesota are both -200. This isn't up for debate. Minnesota is the better pick. Separation and better future value with Denver

BJ, speaking of what's stupid....passing on a team now so you can use them in Week 15 is uber stupid. You don't know how that team will be playing come December. Also, looking one week ahead doesn't make as much sense as you may think.

I agree in the sense that this season has been real nasty for these Pools. Small sample size but judging by the comments on this board and elsewhere, I believe many if not majority of the Pools only have about 5% of entries left, if not less.

The Pools may settle well before Week 15 (elimination or chop) or they may not and playing the %, I lean towards the former.

Read my posts. I'm saying Minnesota is the pick between the 3. If he takes Denver, he can only take Minnesota (as of now late in the season) where as Denver has lots of chances to use.

They have the same chance of winning. Take Minnesota between the 2 choices.

You're wrong about the last part. Looking 1 week ahead is extremely important

I took the Jets for this week.

Well if we're looking 1 week ahead, Denver is on bye next week.

I would be absolutely shocked if this pool lasts more than 3 weeks.

Plug the data into a spreadsheet to see what you're looking at going forward. This is what your pool looks like. I plugged in 'Biggest Point Spread Available' for every week for 3 remaining players. Tie/close enough to tie choices for some weeks.

I don't know what you're definition of 'absolutely shocked' means, but there's a reasonable chance that at least 2 players are remaining going into Week 9. Denver's best slot is saving until Week 14. I realize that that is a long way away, but you're not even downgrading taking Minnesota. Both games are the SAME spread. You're not giving up anything at all - just a different team with the same chances to win. The upside is, if you get to Week 14, you'd have Denver available. That'd be a nice little advantage if your opponents had already used them by then.

Your picks in bold... Week 6 going forward plausible projections

Minnesota Arizona Atlanta Cincinnati Den/Cin/Balt

Green Bay New England KC/STL NYJ/Pitt Den/Cin/Balt

Seattle Indianapolis KC/STL NYJ/Pitt Den/Cin/Balt


* edit Looking 1 week forward would've been valuable for you last week. It doesn't this week, but it never hurts to look just to make sure

Don't handicap, favorites always win. Easy game

Again if you want to do a HU Survivor Pool me vs your handicap system, I'm in for up to 5,000

We already did didn't we?

I have a pm from you that would say otherwise