^ where do you get these stats from?

SBRodds

In huge pools, where you have multiple entries, what are yall's thoughts about just putting all 4 entries on a big favorite for a week? For example, let's say I put 4 entries on the Saints this week, or all 4 on the big favorite next week? That way, I have a very good shot of making it through with all 4 entries remaining going into week 4, while (hopefully) a decent amount of the field will have been eliminated. Then, I can start varying my picks with each entry as most people do each week.

I picked 4 different teams week 1 and got through with all of them, but I'm very tempted to just put all 4 entries on the Saints this week. I don't think a ton of people will be on the saints this week in my pool, maybe due to the fact that alot of people have multiple entries and will only pick the saints once.

I think it's a pretty bad idea. I hate having multiple entries on the same pick unless there's just no other option which shouldn't happen until later in the year.

You're kidding yourself if you think a ton of people won't be on the Saints. I'd be shocked if it was less than 35%.

Whole post seems very FPS IMO.

If you put multiple entries on the same team, it seems you're missing the point of having multiple entries.

I disagree. He actually alluded to the fact that this wouldn't be a common occurrence.

I think it's okay. I only do two per season though and one is a loser pool.
If I had four entries going and really thought that some team was the absolute best pick in week two, I would consider going all in with that team. It doesn't necessarily mean I'll be doing the same thing in future weeks (when the equity is higher).

I guess it also depends how much you're degening. Like if each entry fee is a big chunk of money to me, I'll be more hesitant to make all four entries the same team.

But if you're playing within means and truly believe the pick is +EV, why not just do it? Anything else and you're diluting value.

I guess it's also relevant if your entries are all in the same pool. I would be way less inclined to do it if they are. Then again, I would also be less inclined to enter the same pool multiple times unless it's filled with droolers. I was assuming four different pools.

The rest made sense, but you did lose me on not doing it in the same pool portion. In fact large pools, especially ones that need multiple picks at the end - and especially those in which many people have 10+ entries each, I am very often keeping all my many entries the same pick during the early weeks. I'm either out when my equity is small, or able to bet closer to my stakes when equity is large. More times than not this seems to be either 1. risk tolerance, or 2. bankroll management strategy. I'm failing to see how the EV aspect requires splitting the picks in all instances.

Totally hear you and agree. Well put!

what do you define as a decent amount? In most weeks of a survivor pool I would say like 10-15% get eliminated tops. It's not like 80% of the field is gonna get got on week 2. You're also acting is if you aren't picking the biggest favorite this week. NO is gonna be one of the most common picks.

Some data on eliminations by week.

2014 = Yahoo/OFP/RunYourPool Average

2014 Week 01 28.8% eliminated
2014 Week 02 33.1% eliminated
2014 Week 03 2.4% eliminated
2014 Week 04 22.3% eliminated
2014 Week 05 12.2% eliminated
2014 Week 06 32.8% eliminated
2014 Week 07 37.2% eliminated
2014 Week 08 48.2% eliminated
2014 Week 09 11.3% eliminated
2014 Week 10 12.7% eliminated
2014 Week 11 52.1% eliminated
2014 Week 12 14.5% eliminated
2014 Week 13 14.9% eliminated
2014 Week 14 29.6% eliminated
2014 Week 15 4.7% eliminated
2014 Week 16 39.8% eliminated
2014 Week 17 12.7% eliminated

2013 = Yahoo/OFP/RunYourPool Average

2013 Week 01 20.5% eliminated
2013 Week 02 11.9% eliminated
2013 Week 03 24.9% eliminated
2013 Week 04 15.4% eliminated
2013 Week 05 43.2% eliminated
2013 Week 06 5.5% eliminated
2013 Week 07 15.5% eliminated
2013 Week 08 1.3% eliminated
2013 Week 09 13.9% eliminated
2013 Week 10 83.7% eliminated
2013 Week 11 22.2% eliminated
2013 Week 12 73.8% eliminated
2013 Week 13 14.4% eliminated
2013 Week 14 8.6% eliminated
2013 Week 15 38.9% eliminated
2013 Week 16 22.8% eliminated
2013 Week 17 15.8% eliminated

2012 = Yahoo + OFP Average

2012 Week 01 10.5% eliminated
2012 Week 02 53.2% eliminated
2012 Week 03 71.4% eliminated
2012 Week 04 3.1% eliminated
2012 Week 05 16.8% eliminated
2012 Week 06 37.2% eliminated
2012 Week 07 2.3% eliminated
2012 Week 08 15.6% eliminated
2012 Week 09 4.3% eliminated
2012 Week 10 17.4% eliminated
2012 Week 11 1.8% eliminated
2012 Week 12 5.9% eliminated
2012 Week 13 38.0% eliminated
2012 Week 14 15.3% eliminated
2012 Week 15 24.3% eliminated
2012 Week 16 2.3% eliminated
2012 Week 17 17.9% eliminated

2011=Yahoo

2011 Week 01 36.9% eliminated
2011 Week 02 10.8% eliminated
2011 Week 03 10.6% eliminated
2011 Week 04 10.8% eliminated
2011 Week 05 77.3% eliminated
2011 Week 06 3.6% eliminated
2011 Week 07 20.0% eliminated
2011 Week 08 14.6% eliminated
2011 Week 09 17.9% eliminated
2011 Week 10 79.8% eliminated
2011 Week 11 6.8% eliminated
2011 Week 12 2.9% eliminated
2011 Week 13 20.7% eliminated
2011 Week 14 2.4% eliminated
2011 Week 15 46.9% eliminated
2011 Week 16 29.4% eliminated
2011 Week 17 11.0% eliminated

2010 = Yahoo

2010 Week 01 27.5% eliminated
2010 Week 02 14.0% eliminated
2010 Week 03 9.8% eliminated
2010 Week 04 13.0% eliminated
2010 Week 05 44.5% eliminated
2010 Week 06 9.5% eliminated
2010 Week 07 31.9% eliminated
2010 Week 08 22.2% eliminated
2010 Week 09 11.6% eliminated
2010 Week 10 28.4% eliminated
2010 Week 11 8.0% eliminated
2010 Week 12 5.9% eliminated
2010 Week 13 23.3% eliminated
2010 Week 14 16.9% eliminated
2010 Week 15 19.0% eliminated
2010 Week 16 77.2% eliminated
2010 Week 17 15.2% eliminated

Ok how do I get into these pools where 1/5th of the field regularly get eliminated?

Check first page of this forum before season starts. Then also Google search. I kept a directory of only ones either posted about on 2+2 or ran by gambling sites. But for the rest Google search is good. There is pools on all sorts of forums that have nothing to do with sports for NFL Survivor and March Madness.

Higher stakes pools will be tighter. I've always found the average numbers at least close, except in smaller pools for the others. The average elimination Week 1 was 14.2% and was very close to being 26.3% if Dallas didn't get that late comeback. That's using the same data I posted about for past 5-years.

For how this compares to some actual pools mentioned on 2+2.

Zathras is $40 per entry and had 195 players. It has rolling lock down (so can pick until the final game) and didn't allow picks on New England. With them lost 12.8% Week 1. But had Dallas not pulled that off would have been 36.4% week 1 eliminations. The unique features of their pool, plus maybe more following using strategy sites helped boost that Dallas number.

The posted about one 2+2ers are doing at Maximum Fantasy Sports. 200 entries - $25 each. This had 12.5% eliminated week 1. It would have been 24.5% without Dallas comeback.

Sportsbook.com $100K prize pool survivor. 15508 entries. Lost 20.8% of them week 1. It would have been 30.8% if Dallas had lost.

The bitcoin pools were so sick I''m posting them in quotes just to separate them from discussion.

A lot of this was due to user 189 though.

Obviously in not expecting 80% of the pool to be eliminated after 3 weeks. But I would expect 30% or so to be eliminated. If the pool goes from 2700 to 1900 and I still have all my picks remaining, that would be a great spot to be in. Sure, there's a chance I could lose all my entries but I think it could be worth the gamble. Chances are if I differentiate picks with all my 4 entries, I'll be going to week 4 with 1-3 teams.

I'm not sure what FPS stands for. But I think you either don't understand what I'm talking about or you don't know what you're talking about.

Thanks for the replies guys. I decided not to go all saints after going back and forth in it all week. I took 2 saints and 1 dolphins 1 colts this week.

FPS = Fancy Play Syndrome

Mostly Miami & Pittsburgh. Have a taste of New Orleans.

Carolina & Minnesota in my rebuy and Tiebreaker pules

Square picks are Baltimore & Indianapolis

Re: New Orleans

Week 16 is the next best time to use them. I used them just enough so that I'll still gain equity if they lose and Miami or Pittsburgh win

Lol at Indi being square play. The square play is clearly the Saints.

Every pool has a different dynamic, but trade2win for the most part you're wrong; he's right.

In my three pools I have Indy, Ravens and Steelers.

Except I'm not.

As a diehard Aints fan this game has me skeptical. Saints are NOTORIOUS for letting rookie/new starting QBs have big games under Payton.

Pass rush is nonexistent, secondary is depleted; ie 2 of our CBs are rookies who while looking scrappy last week committed 4-5 PI penalties.

Not to mention saints didn't prove they can capitalize in red zone without Graham as they were 1/4 last week in RZ vs Arizona.

But, I guess Vegas knows something I don't with this ML

Why use IND at -300 when you should have half a dozen more chances to use them at bigger numbers?

I'm pretty heavy on NO for the same reason. Hate that 45% will be on them, but it's still at neutral EV on SurvivorGrid and PHI/IND/PIT have too much future value for me to take at -5 to -7 this early.

They'll also be five times as popular as they are this week.