Quote:
Originally Posted by wamplerr
Jayhawk, we're usually on the same page, but I went with half my picks on NE/GB/DAL and half on CIN/NYJ/TB for two reasons:
-It's week 1, so I'm putting less weight on future value. NE/GB/DAL are all a QB injury away from being mediocre, and the picture just gets a lot more clear after 2-3 weeks.
In the last 5 years, I've scooped 3, made a deal in another and come close in others. Last year, I had the 2nd highest equity going into Double Picks in Week 16 (80,000 prize pool). The variance is higher, but I play at a chance to SCOOP [if things fall into place]. I don't account for the possibility of injuries. If they happen, they happen.
I look at specific weeks throughout the season & look for specific weeks where selection will be thin and make a selection. I then work backwards from there.
My Weeks 1-4 projections are highly volatile this year. I have 35 entries across several pools that are 1 loss and out. If I make it to Week 5 with 5 entries left, I believe I'll have gained equity over where I was going into Week 1.
Basically, I play to be a no chop situation when I make to the end. Even a 2-way chop is only half the prize pool. I want to be in a position to win the whole pot. Playing for a larger % of the prize pool when you do make it to the end decreases the Win % you need for the teams that you select in the path to getting there