I have been playing in a couple of pools with 5-figures payout for a couple of years on OFP and have not had any issue. The Pool admin paid OFP fees and that's all she wrote.

Not sure why they would 86'd your 6-figure payout Pool? I will have to read the fine print to see if there's any limit.

Your not supposed to bet for any amount per the rules of the site. I've been in 2 pools on that site that were 86'd. They were also the largest ones I've played on there. Someone in the pool apparently replied to a OFC auto email about how to pay for the pool and it was flagged. GG

I'm in some of these. This sounds unfortunate. Did you message them?

Yeah they gave me typical CS response.

I'm over it now. It really isn't a big deal. Just was annoyed by the principle of it.

User 189 has many many entries in a lot of the pools. He busted out of a bunch already.

NE, NE, GB, CIN, DAL are my picks across pools. Dal losing here not the worst thing. Takes out 1/8 of my biggest pool.

Lost a few entries on Tampa Bay, but I also had entries on Arizona, Carolina, & San Diego. Have a little San Francisco in reentry and Tiebreaker pool.

Got through without having to use the above mentioned teams. Dallas comeback was painful. Lots more pain to come as the season goes on

I would be inclined not to take the Thursday game if registration stays open until Sunday of week 1. If there's a bloodbath Thursday, you'd expect more entries to come in to capitalize on the dead money. If the Pats win and you are +EV in the pool, the pool will tend to be smaller.

Interesting. In small pools that can end any week I figured NE was almost automatic. They were the largest favorites while not overly a popular pick. These are survivor can't reuse teams. For those I'm in pools with 200 that 28 (14%) took them; 193 that 23 (12%) took them; 61 that 4 (7%) took them, and 21 that I was the only one to take them.

They will be the most popular pick Week 3. If waiting to use them when less people have them have to wait until week 7 or 9. Week 7 there are likely to be multiple large favorites and if still alive that week would keep them for week 9.

The pool I was complaining about had only 4 others (5 total) at the initial deadline, so can easily end any week. It turns out only one person joined after the initial deadline, but I didn't know that would be the case. If 10 more joined late I'd have been even more wishing had taken Patriots.

LOL there's 4 entries total in the 10 btc pool (roughly $2,300 entry)

1 guy was on GB, the other 3 on DAL. Wow, that one guy could've shipped a quick $6,900 on week 1, but LOL Coughlin screwed him.

And 4 of 6 in the 5 btc entry were on the Cowboys.

I'm surprised how popular Dallas was. I'm in a $300 buy-in with 21 players that 13 had them. I didn't have them there, but was one of the 4 of 6 on them in 5BTC buy-in at Nitrogen. Was disappointed to see that. I'm in a lot of survivor pools. I didn't take GB in any of them, took Dallas in less than half, and still didn't lose a single entry Week 1. Dallas losing wouldn't have been a major deal, but was still better for me that they won.

I'm in 5 pools. Had Dallas in 1 of them. Probably would have been better for me if they lost, but not too upset to keep all my entries alive.

I'm not saying they were a bad pick in terms of survivor strategy.

This is kind of what I'm talking about. Let's say there are five signed up Thursday at kickoff for a $100 pool, and one person takes New England who is 70% to win. The deadline stays open until Sunday kickoff.

If the Pats win, like you said, you are hoping 10 more join the pool late. But a sixth person is not inclined to join the pool since they haven't invested anything and someone is already a pick ahead of them.

If the Pats lose, several more people are inclined to jump in since there is $100 of dead money sitting there. That's why I think you're getting freerolled taking the Pats. You are in good shape for a $500 pool if you win, and you are dead money in a $1500 pool if you lose.

*All that can be ignored if the picks are kept hidden until kickoff Sunday

Jayhawk, we're usually on the same page, but I went with half my picks on NE/GB/DAL and half on CIN/NYJ/TB for two reasons:

-It's week 1, so I'm putting less weight on future value. NE/GB/DAL are all a QB injury away from being mediocre, and the picture just gets a lot more clear after 2-3 weeks. For example, I doubt anyone thinks TEN is the worst team in the league anymore.
-The chalk held up, but it was the hardest early season Survivor week I can remember. I like my skill in future weeks, so I put a premium on surviving even if it hurts future value and means I'm duplicating more picks with the herd than usual.

Same way that early in a poker tournament, one might prefer to play a smaller pot with a 70% chance of winning than to play a bigger pot with a 60% chance of winning.

Impossible to tell after one week, but given the stakes, I would consider that a lot of these people are using SurvivorGrid and/or a similar strategy to you. If next week has NO -10 with 50% of picks on Survivor Grid and three less popular teams at -6.5 or -7, you might consider taking the Saints.

Something you might be able to take advantage of in a smaller pool (in terms of players).

In the last 5 years, I've scooped 3, made a deal in another and come close in others. Last year, I had the 2nd highest equity going into Double Picks in Week 16 (80,000 prize pool). The variance is higher, but I play at a chance to SCOOP [if things fall into place]. I don't account for the possibility of injuries. If they happen, they happen.

I look at specific weeks throughout the season & look for specific weeks where selection will be thin and make a selection. I then work backwards from there.

My Weeks 1-4 projections are highly volatile this year. I have 35 entries across several pools that are 1 loss and out. If I make it to Week 5 with 5 entries left, I believe I'll have gained equity over where I was going into Week 1.

Basically, I play to be a no chop situation when I make to the end. Even a 2-way chop is only half the prize pool. I want to be in a position to win the whole pot. Playing for a larger % of the prize pool when you do make it to the end decreases the Win % you need for the teams that you select in the path to getting there

^ I dont know about this. There are many ways to make it to the end. The other year I chopped a pot 3-ways after 3 of us finished out the reg season. We mostly had different teams throughout the 17 weeks, but it's just the way the cards lay. Can't really play for a no chop.

I get that picking the biggest favorite every week is not ideal. Other people do that, and best case scenario you chop the pot with 20% of the pool.

I do agree that one should not account for the possibility of injuries. Just go with the information you have available at present.

Going into Week 16 last year... Double picks rest of the way...

15 players remaining.

I was only player remaining with Philadelphia & Seattle

2 other players had Philadelphia
2 other players had Seattle

As it played out, every player picked Buffalo OR Miami. I think 10 were on Buffalo. Unfortunately, Philadelphia lost at Washington and it was all over.

I highest equity with 15 players left. It doesn't always work though

Do you guys have a limit on the amount of people that are in a pool? I'm in one with 5,000 people and I have a feeling it's gonna be chopped 100 ways or something.

Are their double pick weeks?

whose double pick weeks?

Gotta pick double if the pool is that big. Mine is only ~700 and we pick double at week 14.

Yeah only weeks 16 and 17. Just seems like way too many entries.

Yeah that's not enough double pick weeks. That pool I mentioned above had 2,500ish entrants (not sure how accurate my guess is) and double picks were Weeks 13-17. 15 players made it through Week 15. 3 made it through Week 16

My pool has around 2700 entries. The pick breakdown was a little surprising to me, the picks are below. I was especially surprised with how many people picked Miami/NYJ as compared to the Patriots and Cowboys. Some people didn't sign up until after Thursday, so that could be part of why not too man people picked the Pats. I'm now wondering if going forward picking some big favorites may be the best strategy (and just hope that the week 1 trend continues of not too many people picking the heavy favorites). In hindsight, it looks like the Patriots were probably the best pick this week (although that could have been bc it was the Thursday night game).

Also, I'm guessing a ton of people have 4 entries in this contest. Would that make picking the favorite a better play than a pool where everyone has only one entry? For example, I'm assuming people with 4 entries will pick 4 different teams, meaning the percentage of picks on the heavy favorites is much lower than it would be in league where everyone only has one entry.



Team Picked Percentage Graph % of Time Picked # of Times Picked

Miami
Dolphins
18% 491

Green Bay
Packers
17% 458

New York
Jets
16% 437

New England
Patriots
8% 215

Dallas
Cowboys
7% 194

Cincinnati
Bengals
6% 160

Carolina
Panthers
4% 112

Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
4% 104

Denver
Broncos
4% 99

Seattle
Seahawks
4% 97

Indianapolis
Colts
3% 74

NO PICK
2% 56

Arizona
Cardinals
2% 50

Minnesota
Vikings
1% 39

Philadelphia
Eagles
1% 36

San Diego
Chargers
1% 32