I'm not happy you are out. I am happy Philly lost because that got us down to 4 people. I don't go with my "gut". I actually handicap these games, and I bet these games. I predict what the line should be, and I adjust accordingly.

I've won quite a bit of these survivor pools, and sure maybe I am just lucky, but I look at it the exact opposite of the way you guys do that's for sure. You make your list based on win % from the favorites down. I make my list based on win% from the biggest underdogs and up. Of course strategy varies based on how many people are left etc etc, but the NFC East is never a division I want to be involved in when it comes to me surviving.

Nah you should be good. TB had their game last week.

Closing out the year with Houston. This goes into the playoffs. You can use each team 2x total. So once if you used them during the regular season. I'm sure there will be some lol terrible strategies used there

Hooooooold Houston

5 left going into week 17. 3 took HOU including me, 1 DAL, 1 MIA. Was expecting it to go into the playoffs but it ended up being auto chopped with the final 4. Although i woulda liked to play this one down to a winner, I'll take it. This has been a particularly brutal season for me so I was lucky to even cash in this final pool after playing a total of 10 of these pools or so and escaping with a very small profit/ very near break even.

GL all cya next year.

Week 1 is going to be awesome this year. No spreads bigger than 5.5. Lots of road favorites

In for a pool

+1

Anyone know any reputable online books that run a survival pool. All I've seen is sportsbook runs one with 100k gtn (idk if they are a solid book with quick cashouts).

I made it deep in the merge pool last year. Wouldn't put money on merge to do it again though as payouts seem lengthy recently.

Nitrogen sports runs a bitcoin pool and doesn't take anything from prize pool.

Wonder if doing again. I chopped the .1 btc pool last year.

2015 Survivor Pools - if anyone knows others to add to it let me know.

https://survivoroptimizer.com/
Take a look at this for survivor pools, offering value picks.

Should I put money on sports book ag for survivor pool? Seeing they might have payout issues via sbr.

def don't

Thanks yea It looks like a pretty shady site. Any online books run survivor pools other than nitrogen. Ugh 100k gtn looked solid however im sure payout would be a pain if won and they don't include extra money if they receive over 100k in entries.

It is not $100K guaranteed but rather a $100K fixed prize. This year two red flags:

1. They are using same pool between all skins. In the past there were several skins with pools paying $15K, $25K, $40K and their $100K. This year all are part of the same pool, it is likely huge -EV.

2. they are hiding how many entries have been sold. The standings are not available until after week 1, which wasn't how they did it in the past.

They could sell $400K, and pocket $300K here. You won't know until after have paid to find out. Again it is not guaranteed prize pool, but rather a fixed prize pool. You'll also need to pay a withdrawal fee on winnings and will take a long time to cash out.

So uh...who have we all gone with for week 1?

I am in three leagues and I am going with the Dolphins (@ WAS), Patriots (vs. PIT) and Broncos (vs. BAL).

Thoughts?

Thinking Miami, maybe Arizona. Seems tougher then past week 1's

This is a tough week no matter what number it is. I'm thinking Dallas.

Certainly tougher than past Week Ones.

As for Dallas: I hate the idea of picking a divisional game and I see that one being very close.

is there anything to this divisional game or home game stuff? Seems like the line would incorporate all of that. Or are you guys just using those criteria as a tiebreaker when you are between two picks?

But you're not picking against the spread--you're trying to choose the straight up winner. Also, the spread is designed to get a roughly equal amount of action on both sides, so it has more to do with the public's perception of the teams against each other as opposed to the actual result of the game.

Rough guidelines for Survivor that are a good idea to follow (in no particular order):

1. Don't pick a road team
2. Don't pick a divisional game
3. Don't pick against a team coming off a bye

Yep line incorporates all of it you should be using pick popularity and future schedule as the tie breaker when deciding between two teams with the same spread.