Prof if you think it will be split 2/2 then I think Phil is the pick for you. Your pool may all be loading up on Phil tho. Basically depends based on prior picks who you think they will take.

Buffalo, if you're risk averse def chop. Or chop a portion of the pool at least.

I can tell you looking ahead to next week, that it will be a bloodbath next week. Save Indy if you can. Only logical choice next week.

I like STL next week too

I wanted to pick San Fran this week, but I don't trust them. Going IND this week.

Well my chop deal fell apart. Looks like I'll be taking SF tomorrow. Assuming they win it looks like we'll both be on Indy for week 13. Then he's stuck with -6.5 (SF or Hou) and -5.5 (Car or Indy) current spreads for weeks 14 and 15, while I have -11.5 (Det) and -14.5 (KC) favorites in those same weeks. Hopefully one of those weeks knocks him out. That said there's no telling what this guy will do. He's picked underdogs for no good reason before. For anyone interested I've used.
1. Phi
2. Was
3. ATL
4. Mia
5. Pit
6. SD
7. NE
8. Cle
9. Sea
10. AZ
11. Den

He's used:
1. Den
2. GB
3. No
4. Bal
5. Sea
6. Det
7. AZ
8. Mia
9. Phi
10. Cle
11. Chi
12. KC

My plan is SF, Indy, Det, KC, GB, Hou.

am I crazy for thinking of going NE? Only 3 of us have them left in a 6 person left 2nd chance pool, everyone has IND and PHIL left so im expecting I'll be the only one on NE this week. The only downside I could see is if the pool goes to week 16-17, it would be slim pickings but I don't think it will. I would then have IND left for week 13, GB left for week 14, and BAL left for week 15.

The Patroits will be very useful to have in weeks 16 or 17 if your pool lasts that long.

If you're wanting to sacrifice a bunch of win probability just to avoid being alongside other people on IND/PHI, then SF seems like a better choice. More likely to win this week than New England and less future value.

I know it's bad to go off this in the long run but I just can't bring myself to take SF in anymore pools this year as they've been personally responsible for knocking me out of 5 different survivor pools with that blown loss to the Bears in week 2 and that goal line last sec fumble in week 9. I mean jeez they had 5 picks vs NYG last week and still barely won. And yes I know WAS is a mess. I'll likely be in a position to win the pool outright this week, but also have a clear edge next week.

Taking PHI in my only other pool that's down to a final 20ish but only so I can save NE for weeks 16-17 as I think there's a lot greater chance that one goes the whole way.

Eagles are all the way up to -700 at Pinnacle right now, Colts sitting at -720.

Wow the picks turned out being really weird; 3 PHI, 1 IND, 1 SF, 1 NE for myself.

People started picking a lot smarter then they used to all of a sudden, usually it's just the biggest spread/fav.

And an even bigger surprise is my 23 left pool; 3 already out on KC, 11 on IND, 5 on SF, 1 DAL, 1 GB, and only 2 including myself on PHI.

2 pools left:

17 people: 15 Indy 2 SF
4 people: 3 Indy 1 SF

I took SF in both.

Weird picks in my league imo. I went with the Eagles. Looks like it will be me and Team C on Indy this week. Don't see how either of us don't pick them. Rest will probably make random picks.


chargers and cowboys both could've easily lost. too bad.

Decently tough week for anyone that has already used Indy (which is pretty much everyone).

sorry for the grunch but this week feels huge to me. Weeks 14 (Lions v Bucs) and 15 (Ravens v Jags or Chiefs v Raiders) seem pretty good. I've been worried about Week 16 for a while, I'd be down to either Eagles @ Washington or Rams v Giants. Week 17 I'd have Broncos v Raiders.

Not sure about this week, I'm leaning towards Texans v Titans, just don't feel great about the Rams Raiders game and I'd like to keep the Rams option open for Week 16.

Haven't been this deep in survivor in a few years, it's fun. Survivorgrid.com def helped with the planning.

A lot is going to depend on how big your pool is, and what teams everyone has left.

Several of the secondary options (MIA, DET, BAL, HOU, STL) are all very close in win probability. I'd lean towards trying to get one of the less popular teams of this bunch, whoever that is. I'd stay away from St. Louis based on their site-wide popularity on Yahoo/OFP, but you could make the case for any of the other four.

You've got Detroit penciled in for next week. Solid pick, but how popular are they going to be? They're the #1 option on the board for the first time all year, I imagine their popularity will be at least 40%. You've still got Denver, if Detroit comes in crazy popular next week, maybe you'd be better off using them today against Chicago and taking Denver against Buffalo?

Don't worry too much about week 17, options usually appear out of nowhere when teams sit starters. Eagles @ Skins in week 16 will be decent enough, remember that everyone else will be running on fumes as well.

I've decided not to ruin my Thanksgiving and I'm not taking Detroit.

thanks acc_kid, and sorry but I was pretty hammered when I posted--I've been screwing around with an egg nog recipe that's pretty ****ing good, egg nog is really one of the goat hosting drinks--and I left out some key information. I already won my dorky pool, it's the same ten guys every year and this year I'm the only one left, shameful stuff I know. But the catch is I get double the prize if I make it through the whole seventeen weeks. So really my post was just a worthless drunken barg. My bad, but go Texans anyway. And haha yes I definitely know your name is not obra: I miss CBS Survivor, I should probably watch another season. Happy Thanksgiving all!

God damn, I love 2+2.

EM if you're the only one left in the pool and your goal is to just make it through to the end just pick the biggest favourite you have available every week.
Texans are a slightly bigger ML favourite than the Rams this week.

some things to consider:

Texans may be your best Week 17 play vs Jax.
Rams may not be your best option available for Week 16. Not sure who you have left. Actually, looking at survivorgrid and using their predicted spreads and guessing who you've likely used, only Buf @ OAK is a bigger favourite than Rams that week. Maybe Rams are worth saving for then, use Houston now as the bigger favourite, and figure out week 17 if/when you get there.

good story you poasted

4 left
Lets go Lions!

HU and Villain lost with Dal on Thursday. As long as Indy wins on Sunday im banking. Otherwise it's a push and we choose again next week.

Going with Cincy this week at TB. Hate the pick and dislike the fact its on the road. I think picking STL is meh with so many people picking them over the raiders. Feel like the next 2 weeks are almost locks. Chicago and KC.

Houston & St. Louis in my double picks pool. Miami in my single pick

#winning