Guess you're right......might not be such a safe pick after all =) Good info -

Lol at some of you guys using the "Truthiness" of sports betting to determine future picks. I'm sorry but I just don't get it. Not only is a team's recent history of bounce-back performances an insignificant sample size, but it's also eliminating an infinite amount of variables. I don't know a lot about football betting, but I know enough to know that I don't know more than Vegas. This is why I'm taking a purely mathematical approach to my pool based on an average of offered point spreads. However if someone can argue otherwise I'm not too proud to learn....

Anyhow, I have a math question I'm hoping someone here can help me with. If I studied tournament poker I think I'd have a better handle on my problem, but I play strictly cash games. So like tournament poker my question relates to the value of staying alive in my survivor pool verse future value of making the most optimal picks:

With only 5 people left in my pool I've mapped out every player's optimal choices based on current odds. I know this is imperfect but it's all I have to go on. So I've converted all point spreads to win percentage estimates. Then mapped out each player's highest win percentages based on these numbers. This was the easy part, but determining my optimal path seems much more complicated. For instance I could take Indy week 12 and have and extra 7% chance of winning that week, but then I'd have to take Detroit week 13 and give up 5% over using Indy in week 13. This obviously a super simplified example since changing one questionable pick often alters my choices for numerous other picks, not just one. So what I'm asking is how to determine how much an extra % is worth in a given week, at the expense of a percent in later or earlier week. I understand that the closer any game occurs to the present the more the value of winning that week over the value of later weeks. This is because future games are more likely have vastly different spreads than are now predicted, and because the pool could be over by the time that later game happens. But up until now I've just sorta had to fudge the numbers in a way that makes sense to me. But is it possible to have a precise mathematical expression of what I'm trying to explain?

You should be using moneylines to come up with win probability, not spreads. Spreads are artificial numbers created by the books that are designed to encourage roughly equal action on both sides of the line. You can roughly translate them to win probability but there is no need to do that when moneylines already exist. For example, a spread of -6.5 and one of -7 might not be as close as you think.

There is a page on SurvivorGrid.com that takes you through the math behind coming up with the EV for your current week picks based on popularity and win probability. Have a look at it, I'm pretty good with numbers but the part where they factor in your new entry value was not intuitive to me initially.

You then have to incorporate future value which isn't too hard. Where it gets tricky is taking it to the next level and coming up with the same type of calculation in future weeks.

I don't think such a model exists. Even if it did, I don't think there is a lot of value to be had as there is so much variability in the NFL. QB's go down, teams improve week to week. A DAL-WAS matchup that you predicted would have a -3 line a few weeks ago all of a sudden is a viable pick at -10.

A lot also depends on your own pools rules, size of the pool, what teams have been used, jane vs. sharp, etc.

The right approach is to make the best overall pick each week (considering win %, future value and popularity) and then re-evaluate a week later if you're still around. You can grind out small advantages in the right spot but in the end these leagues still have a ton of luck to them.

Won one league already. Down to 3 people in another, and 18 in another. Seems like a tough week with a lot of picks spread out.

In the league down to 4 my options are:

Washington - all of us can take them
Green Bay - only I can use them
New Orleans- only I can use them

Thoughts?

A lone pick on New Orleans is superb if you don't have San Diego or Denver available.

Tryng to map out the rest of my year, I have 2/15 entries left in one pool.

Entry one used: Pit, Was, NO, Ind, GB, SD, NE, Cle, Cin, Bal. Tentative Plan is:

11: Den @ Stl
12: Phi vs. Ten
13: Hou vs Ten or Det vs Chi or NYG @ Jac
14: SF @ Oak
15: KC vs Oak
16: Mia vs Min
17: Sea vs StL

Entry 2 Used: Pit, GB, Cin, SD, Den, Phi, Buf, Mia, Sea, Dal with Plan

11: NO vs Cin
12: KC @ Oak
13: Ind vs Was
14: Det vs TB or SF@ Oak
15: Bal vs Jac
16: NE @ NYJ
17: Hou vs Jac

I'm having a tough time weighing what's optimal for any given week and trying to avoid picking the same team on each entry to reduce variance

Lots of gold here. Thanks.

What you map out now as the best picks for week 12 onwards may not be the right pick at that time.
Teams will be eliminated from your pool, players may get injured, etc.
Future value is the least of my concerns. Just make the best pick this week, then reassess next week when you have a more true representation of the variables.
Eg. Say 3 teams go out this week and you're heads up next week. All your mapping goes out the window and you should just be picking the best moneyline team you have available each week.

I picked MIA this week and won. I didn't trust WASH.

While I understand and agree with the generalities of your point, the idea of "saving" teams for particular weeks must be given some weight. For me, the question is how much. For example I'd never given up 7% equity this week to save a team for 5+ weeks from now. But lower those two numbers and it'll make me reconsider.

4 people left.

3 used Washington
I used NO. Come on baby!

Looking like a lot of people might go down this week

HOOOOOOOLD

YOLOing with Pitt this week. Considering some sort of pseudo hedge if a lot of other teams get knocked out today...

DO NOT HOLD

oh well had broncos this week…. looks like redskins getting killed too

OOPS who wins?

I assume we just reset

Dream Sunday. Love to see Pittsburgh go down tomorrow

Pitt losing would cause mass destruction in all leagues. Basically only Mia and sd won.

Final 13 in a 2nd chance pool in which I still had 2 entries left. On one hand sux to lose 1 entry to New O, but on the other hand can't complain 5 of us were on SD, and 1 SF were the only ones to get through. 3 Den, 2 New O, 2 Wash all got the boot.

Musta been a sick sweat for the lone SF pick (although wtf Manning throws 5 INTs and SF still barely wins by 6pts lolz), he was literally playing to win the whole pool outright after he got through and was checking out the SD game although he wouldn't have known til later.

Other pool was down to 37 entering the week and already down to 23 with a possibility of 4 more eliminations on PIT tonight.

Idk if it's just me cuz I have a friend in the DC area, but did anyone else see the interview with RG3 where he basically said this is my team idgaf what anyone else cares? On top of barely being able to trust WAS in that spot, that kind of locker room drama has led to the O line giving up a ton of sacks in the past and thus history repeated itself I think they gave up 6 sacks or so. Either way it was an extra reason to stay off WAS for me personally.

RG3 is sucha ***** diva.

Less than 40 left in a fairly large pool. I'm on the steelers tonight and I also took Titans moneyline for 1/4 of my pool EV as an attempt to hedge. Is that genius or idiotic?

Take the points and you have a 7-point middle