so picking Chiefs and hoping jags pull major upset over Bengals

I'm on Cincinnati & San Francisco

Ended up with a great spot in one of my smaller pools:

5 people on Seattle
1 person on Cincinnati, me

wow anyone on SF? brutal ending

I was all in on Seattle this week (4 entries between 3 pools). For Zathras (now 7 left pays $6600) it sets up a gamble next week for me that was risky to take. All the big favorites I've used already. The biggest favorite I haven't used is Bengals (likely only -6) but I'll be the only one on them because everyone else has used them. If I make it through that, I have big favorites that the majority will have already used the rest of the way. I'm in better position in the other pools but one is small (I have 2 of 11 left pays 1.5 bitcoin) and the other pays $15K but we still have 59 left in that one now.

Sorry Profbets!

I like your play. I guess most the Zathras guys are in Ohio so it was heavier on the Bengals than most.

Had them with 2 of my 5 entries.

Really fun facts:

Rams have had 6 team sacks all season. Had 8 today vs Kaepernick.

Niners haven't lost to division rival at home since 2008.

Good times.

I will forever hate SF after this season, they're responsible for something like 5 different eliminations in different survivor pools first by blowing that double digit lead to the bears in week 2 and now coming back to haunt me in week 9.

Cinci and SEA were really close to being upset too, I'm surprised I was the only one on them in the Zathras Xtreme final 8 people but I'll take that spot anytime. Also I will forever hate the Chargers, if they had won I ship an 8 team parlay for close to the size of the entire Zathras Xtreme pool. Brutal would be an understatement, GL to all that r still in.

Ravens best pick this week?

Can I trust the steelers this week?

Best in what way?

They're going to be the most popular pick, because few people have used them and they're one of the most likely teams to win this week.

They have a prime home matchup against Jacksonville in week 15 which you might need them for if you've used KC already. By then, they are likely to be less popular they are this week.

Looking at popularity, win probability and future value together -- no I don't think they are the best pick, at a quick glance Seattle will be the best overall value. Denver is also a fantastic pick, although if you still have the Broncos now you are wise to save them for week 11. They'll be a fantastic pick no matter when you use them.

Based on the early lines I've seen they're only going to win this game two thirds of the time. If that's all you base your picks on there are other options that are going to be much more likely to win this week.

They're the second most popular option on Yahoo at the moment, coming in at 15%. But they have zero future value, which is nice.

I don't think they're a good pick this week, but it is early.

Probably not. How big is your pool? What % of ppl have already taken them?

The pool im in is down to 34 entries, in which 2 are mine. We're allowed to re-use teams, having a tough time this week in trying to figure out which two I should take. Any advice? I know generally should never take a road team, especially in a divisional game, but is there any merit to taking denver on the road? Tho I'd think a fair amount of people will be on them so should i just use my picks on Baltimore + seattle?

If i had to predict on what the other 32 teams will pick, it'd probably be 15/9/8 denver/balt/seattle. maybe 1 will go with one of the td favorites in divisional games (probably green bay),

This is completely false.

You should be picking whichever teams give you the optimal combination of win probability and popularity.

Sort this week's games by win probability and then try to figure out how popular teams will be based on the pick tendancies of the remaining entries. For your entries, choose teams that are less popular than they should be. Then, hope and pray that you win and can find a real pool to join next year.

If picks are going to be this lopsided towards these three teams, you should put your picks on two of the following teams and hope for upsets: GB, ARZ, CIN, DAL, PIT

Why?

so cincy 6.5 pt favorite, ari 7 pt favorite, packers 7.5 favorite, and eagles 6 pt favorite all won't be taken? you should be drooling and happily take any and all of those.

Got eliminated on them two years ago when they ****ing tied the 49ers. Wasn't going near that with a ten foot pole this year

Wasn't that an away game and under much different circumstances? Rams were in way better form by that game and a completely different team back then.

I got knocked out of a final 8 for 6.6k and final 200ish for 20k pool with SF this past week but the way it played out, I would of made that same choice even if I was able to see everyone's picks beforehand...I was the only 1 on SF, 1 was on KC, 4 were on CIN and 3 were on SEA.

It took a missed FG, 8 sacks from a team that didn't have more then 6 in the whole season leading up to that game, a TD being called back and a goal line fumble in the last secs for that Loss to happen which I was obv beyond pissed at the time but when you look at it like that I would take that pick again if I had the chance.

I agree with most of those but PHIL? I just can't get behind a Sanchez led team for too many reasons to list. ARI is a bit scary if STL plays up to form, and CIN is a division rivalry game although CIN at home and CLEV injuries are pretty significant.

I'm still at 3 left (70 starting) and going with Arizona this week, though I don't like it (had Dallas until Romo went down)

im kinda of embarrassed to say but it is the fox pool where first place pays 2,500$ and 2nd -5th pay 500$ 6th-10th pays 250$... it was free so not that bad..... only 3% remain which is still 1,000 people lol... i still have 49ers,broncos,seahawks,bengals,cardinals,ravens and cowboys saved...... i just do not like picking road teams........ right now 37% are on the ravens 20% on cowboys, the rest is scattered

I don't know more than vegas linesmakers. If I did, I wouldn't be worrying much about survivor pools