Spent $540 on Survivor Entries. The biggest pools I'm already eliminated from. Surprisingly payout divided by entries I'm ahead of the game with this being $820 value. I'm as follows heading to Week 7.

Zathras pays $6600. Is 21 entries remaining, I have 2 of them. The other 19 entries are separate players so I'm only one left with multiple. My picks so far:

1. PIT WAS NO BAL GB ARI
2. NYJ DEN ATL MIA NO TEN

Carbon Sports Pays $15K. 204 entries remain, I have two of those.

1. PIT, WAS, PHI, SD, NO, DEN
2. NYJ, DEN, NO, MIA, GB, SD

Nitrogen 27 Left pays 1.5 Bitcoin (about $600)

1. NYJ, DEN, PHI, IND, NO, SD
2. SF, CIN, ATL, SD, PIT, DEN

Now decision time. 13 of the 19 others in Zathras already used the Patriots. 12 of the other 25 in Nitrogen Already used Patriots. Carbon too time consuming to calculate but should be similar. Need to decide if I go all Patriots this week or not.

I'm facing nearly the same decision this week in my pools. I'll wait to see how the lines shake down, but at a preliminary glance I will be all in on New England.

Biggest favorite of the week and it is not close. Minimal future value until week 15, and both your small pools will be over by then. In your case, popularity will be hard capped at 32% and 52%, which means they'll come in slightly less than that once a few rogue entries are accounted for. They're not off the charts ideal at 40% popularity (when compared to say a week 11 SD pick that'll come in at ~10%) but all things considered this is a very strong pick.

The choice of NE/NE vs. NE/SEA or NE/ARZ (for example) is tough, depends on how popular the alternatives are. With SEA's future value, I would not use them if they aren't <20% popularity, and I'd probably look for <10% popularity if you went with any other choice.

It partially defeats the benefits of multiple entries, but I think this is a spot worth gambling on.

This is only partially true, they're the biggest favorite but not by leaps and bounds.

Several of the secondary options (SEA, GB, DEN) all have moderate amounts of future value, so an additional bonus to a successful NE pick this week is that you then set yourself up with another elite team at low popularity down the road.

Eliminated in my huge pool with Cincy tying the panthers and my favorite team dallas playing the game of their life at Seattle. All 3 picks gone. FML, still have a couple entries In a smaller $20k pool.

Question....if a buddy and I each have our own entry still left....there are about 300 people left total. Would it behoove us in any way to pool our picks and basically agree to a chop if we make any money? I have actually have 2 enries left...so I could pool one with his and left my other one ride on its own.

Any real benefit or advantage to doing that.....?

Minimizes risk and variance. That's it. If you think it's an advantage you should've just gone with multiple entries in the pool yourself.

Am I crazy for taking Buffalo? About 15% of my league left and this seems the prime week to take them (if a prime week exists w/them).

Oh trust me I did....down to just two left.

Phew!

On to week 8 in all three of my pools.

And NE wins the 1000th game they shouldn't have won but pulled it off anyways thanks to questionable calls, and ****ty offensive calls against them that just let them win. I haven't seen this before with the majority of every survivor pool on them...oh wait yea I have several times in the past few years. Count ur blessings NE pickers, seriously...but what's new?

Maybe the Patriots were a good pick for that reason ProfBets . I ended up pulling the trigger and going all in on them. Headlines make me glad I didn't watch the game. I only seen results after the fact. Where I'm at:

Zathras pays $6600. Is 21 entries remaining, I have 2 of them. The other 19 entries are separate players so I'm only one left with multiple. My picks so far:

1. PIT WAS NO BAL GB ARI NE
2. NYJ DEN ATL MIA NO TEN NE

*5 (3 others + 2* me) survived week 7 with Pats. 16 entries are still on Week 7.

Carbon Sports Pays $15K. 204 entries remain, I have two of those.

1. PIT, WAS, PHI, SD, NO, DEN, NE
2. NYJ, DEN, NO, MIA, GB, SD, NE

*33 (31 others + 2* me) survived week 7 with Pats. 169 entries are still on week 7.

Nitrogen 27 Left pays 1.5 Bitcoin (about $600)

1. NYJ, DEN, PHI, IND, NO, SD, NE
2. SF, CIN, ATL, SD, PIT, DEN, NE

*Not sure how many took Patriots, picks are not revealed until 1PM Sunday regardless.

+++

At start of season Week 8 I had noted as being the most challenging week. Early thoughts for that week have always been that I am likely going to divide up entries, ignore pick popularity and EV and just hope to make it through that one with some of these. From that week 9 forward the decisions almost make themselves.

Yea if u had NE u def didn't wanna watch that game, literally feet away from a game winning FG against you after being dominated in time of possession, defense etc almost every aspect of the game. But must be nice, GL.

Had NE on nitrogen but was kinda hoping they lost for lolz and also probably would've been +ev overall as others had them in bigger pools I'm in.

42% were on them in one of my biggest pools lolz but I need to drop the subject before I get irate again.

I took NE in both of my pools but I had the Jets +425 for a small hedge. Still glad NE pulled that off. I think there will be quite a bit of blood shed this weekend.

Folk is a solid NFL kicker - pretty sure he would have hit that if it weren't for the block.

Also - you have multiple entries across a bunch of pool...why are you going all in with NE with a division game? There are a couple other solid choices this week.

1) New England is the team most likely to win their game this week.
2) New England has very little future value until week 15+, most pools will be done by then.
3) New England had been used by many in week 3 against the Raiders, and consequently were not as popular this week as they should be given their win %.
4) Many people have used some of the other solid choices (DEN, GB, SEA) already, and even if you do have them they are worth saving as they all have future value.

Need we go on? I think the Pats were a very obvious pick this week, even though the game turned out to be a nailbiter and could easily have gone the other way.

Had both my last two picks on NE. What a sweat at the end. Jets screwed themselves by burning the timeouts earlier for no real reason. Hoping for massive upsets this weekend. 287 left for about $20k

In your opinion, what are the solid choices this week and why?

Sent from my ADR6425LVW using 2+2 Forums

hey - I never said they weren't a great pick. At home vs a struggling team but we've seen some wacky Thursday games due to the short week and historical, the Jets usually play the Pats tough.

My question was regarding the decision to not spread your picks around. Sure - it worked but he was pretty close to losing all SIX picks in one week. Just my two cents...

I think the Ravens are a near lock vs a decimated Falcons.

For those of us who didn't take NE, thoughts on Green Bay, Washington, Dallas, Chicago, Buffalo?

Wtf Washington?!?!?

All your other options are strong favorites except Chicago. Any would be fine depending on your league size and used picks. Do you have a tentative season long plan for future picks?
In a vacuum the best choice would be Buff since they have the least future value.

3 on Buffalo, 1 Green Bay, 1 Washington across my different pools

Tennessee is pretty bad. I don't think there will be too many on Washington

I try not to take the sheep pick. I do look at the entire season but I'll use any team I need to in order to move on to the next week.

I wish I'd taken NE but I really felt like they were going to lose. I feel nervous about GB too.

I would be way more worried about using CHI or WAS then GB.

I'm going 3 BAL, 1 BUF, 1 GB. GL all (unless your on SEA or the majority pick hah)