I use my brain

A cobra those lines are just all way off

When I'm trying to look quick I use yahoo sportacular

It's always within a half point of pinny

Saints are a lock this week

Only one pick was +EV in the Zathras pool for week 2. I won't give it away, but here's a hint: It was the team that was favored by twice as much as the next biggest favorite.

At some point, you do want to start taking the 2nd and 3rd favorites, as a lot of the donks are out now.

50.4% remain in a pool where you are allowed to repeat picks, and 53.3% remain in my pool where you aren't. Something is wrong with that picture.

In my big pool-

1030 eliminated week 1
729 eliminated week 2

Decided to play it safe with Denver with all 4 picks....probably not the safest way to go but letting things settle down before taking too much risk.

Lot of choices this week...leaning Atlanta...don't see a ton of future value with them but being an Atlanta resident (not a Falcons fan) these guys make me nervous. I generally like teams coming home off a loss so I'm sure I'll have a pick or two on them. Maybe go a little safer with the other pick. I rarely take road games in my pools.

EV calculation question. In this example, how are the % in BOLD calculated?

It's from survivor grid..just trying to make sure I fully understand it.

Team A: 80% to win, 8 people picked (W%=80%, P%=80%)
Team B: 70% to win, 2 people picked (W%=70%, P%=20%)

If you pick Team A:
Team A wins, Team B wins: 56% likely, 10 remain (entry value=1)
Team A wins, Team B loses: 24% likely, 8 remain (entry value= 10/8 = 1.25)
Team A loses: 20% likely, eliminated (entry value=0)
EV = 56%*1 + 24%*1.25 + 20%*0 = 0.86


How much value does you place on the EV% when making your picks?

Thanks in advance-

I'm in a pool with 5 picks out of 255 remaining. You can reuse teams as many times as you'd like through the whole season. Any advice on what kind of strategy should i be using?

So this thread is a post game brag thread?!?! No one wants to give up opinions...
I'm in a 20 man double elimination survivor pool with 16 ppl left. I took PhI week 1. And Skins week 2. Thinkin bout Miami or colts this week. Any thoughts?

Taking Patriots this week.

Clearly picking the highest favourite team would be a decent strategy if 98% of your pool has been eliminated after 2 weeks...

Surely you made a typo or something?

Here's the best way to think about it. Let's say it's week 1, and there are 100 entries at $100 per entry. Now take all the teams win percentages and throw them into a simulator.

Trial #1 has 16 NFL teams winning and 16 losing. Now compare to how popular each team was, and we might see 80 survivors and 20 eliminated of the 100 entries. For the survivors, a $100 entry is now worth $125 (Prize pool is $10,000, divide by 80 survivors). So for the 16 winning NFL teams, they have a gain of $25 in that trial, and the losing 16 teams have a loss of $100.

Now run trial #2, you'll probably get a different combination of NFL teams winning, and a different number of hypothetical survivors. Let's say that leads to 50 survivors and 50 losers, so the 16 winning NFL teams have a gain of $100 in that trial, and the losing NFL teams have a loss of $100.

After a large number of trials, take the average of each team's gains and losses and you get their EV.



I place a ton of value on it, in that I'm rarely going to take a team that is -EV. If not for future value, you could make your picks totally based on that EV number, as it accounts for the win percentage and the popularity in that week which are the two most important pieces of the puzzle. But you need to maximize your EV for the season and not just for a single week, so you have to look ahead as well, which is what makes it hard and which is why there can be debates on who to pick, even between people who think alike.

He's saying he has 5 entries left of the 255 remaining. Generally the strategy is to pick the biggest favorite early in the year, and then start picking the 2nd and 3rd choices later in the year. In the pool I'm in, Denver was the only +EV pick in week 2.

can someone tell me how NE is the 2nd top EV pick this week on survivorgrid when a projected 58%+ will be on them?

Because they are showing them 90% to win while most the others are 70%. The EV is also small at just 1.02.

Moneylines were just taken from Pinnacle. Other two numbers are popularity from Yahoo and OFP.

NE seems like an easy pick to me if only because I don't see another week when I'd want to use them - remaining home games are either divisional or relatively tough (CIN/CHI/DEN/DET)

Moot point. NE isn't losing.

I have to choose 2 teams this week and have 4 entries left. Any advice? I really like the Patriots and have them open in all 4. I lean towards the Saints. Someone scared of the Colts and Bengals. Any advice on divvying picks up?

Colts seem like the best option.

I liked Atlanta

New England I'm allin

I'm going with New Orleans across almost all of my pools. Good luck!

That's exactly what I saw too, and the Saints have Tampa at home in 2 weeks.

The way the Saints played today I am actually glad I took them and got them out of the way.

For Week 5 where NO hosts TB, there are other options, namely GB hosting MIN, PHI hosting STL and DET hosting BUF.

A ho-hum week for my Pools, few stragglers got eliminated with Carolina and Houston but that's about it.

Any good teams lose today?