Quote:
Originally Posted by Inland_Taipan
EV calculation question. In this example, how are the % in BOLD calculated?
It's from survivor grid..just trying to make sure I fully understand it.
Team A: 80% to win, 8 people picked (W%=80%, P%=80%)
Team B: 70% to win, 2 people picked (W%=70%, P%=20%)
If you pick Team A:
Team A wins, Team B wins: 56% likely, 10 remain (entry value=1)
Team A wins, Team B loses: 24% likely, 8 remain (entry value= 10/8 = 1.25)
Team A loses: 20% likely, eliminated (entry value=0)
EV = 56%*1 + 24%*1.25 + 20%*0 = 0.86
Here's the best way to think about it. Let's say it's week 1, and there are 100 entries at $100 per entry. Now take all the teams win percentages and throw them into a simulator.
Trial #1 has 16 NFL teams winning and 16 losing. Now compare to how popular each team was, and we might see 80 survivors and 20 eliminated of the 100 entries. For the survivors, a $100 entry is now worth $125 (Prize pool is $10,000, divide by 80 survivors). So for the 16 winning NFL teams, they have a gain of $25 in that trial, and the losing 16 teams have a loss of $100.
Now run trial #2, you'll probably get a different combination of NFL teams winning, and a different number of hypothetical survivors. Let's say that leads to 50 survivors and 50 losers, so the 16 winning NFL teams have a gain of $100 in that trial, and the losing NFL teams have a loss of $100.
After a large number of trials, take the average of each team's gains and losses and you get their EV.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Inland_Taipan
How much value does you place on the EV% when making your picks?
I place a ton of value on it, in that I'm rarely going to take a team that is -EV. If not for future value, you could make your picks totally based on that EV number, as it accounts for the win percentage and the popularity in that week which are the two most important pieces of the puzzle. But you need to maximize your EV for the season and not just for a single week, so you have to look ahead as well, which is what makes it hard and which is why there can be debates on who to pick, even between people who think alike.