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Old 09-10-2014, 06:38 AM   #2651
accobra_kid
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

San Francisco looks like a great pick if they stay this unpopular, especially in smaller pools.

Cincinnati looks all right as well (as an alternative to Tampa Bay and Washington), but if you're planning ahead you might want to keep CIN around for weeks 9 and 10 when everyone else will be on Seattle.
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Old 09-10-2014, 07:08 AM   #2652
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
San Francisco looks like a great pick if they stay this unpopular, especially in smaller pools.
Why in smaller pools? This is opposite of my thinking. I think they are still good in small pools, but the bigger the pool the better they are
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Old 09-10-2014, 07:33 AM   #2653
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts View Post
Why in smaller pools? This is opposite of my thinking. I think they are still good in small pools, but the bigger the pool the better they are
I suppose in bigger pools, you are likely to play more weeks, therefore it could be prudent to save the better teams til later if possible?
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Old 09-10-2014, 12:55 PM   #2654
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

My thoughts are the bigger the pool, the more likely the overall pick distribution will be similar to the public pick % so you can make a much better calculation on the best pick.

In a small pool, it's quite likely the picks will vary from public numbers.

Ie. San Francisco at 3% or something. Huge pool, that number holds true. 10 person pool, even one person (you) picking them makes it 3x higher a %
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Old 09-11-2014, 02:37 AM   #2655
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I'm not much of a sports bettor, but I'm in a double elimination pool with 20 ppl. Took Phi week 1 and I don't see a reason to not take the Skins week 2. I'm not super confident about that pick, but Vegas has them favored by 6 which is a pretty big spread compared to the other games. Plus I wanna save the 49ers and Seattle for future use. Thoughts or recommendations please?
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Old 09-11-2014, 11:30 AM   #2656
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I mapped out the whole season before week 1 and I have the redskins this week. Obviously things can change, but SF was the one "good" team that I never used. So from what I remember SF was never the biggest favorite in any week down the road, so I could see myself switching to them this week. You would think that they would have value in the future, but this might turn out to be the best week for SF.
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Old 09-11-2014, 11:45 AM   #2657
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by nyjets15 View Post
I mapped out the whole season before week 1 and I have the redskins this week. Obviously things can change, but SF was the one "good" team that I never used. So from what I remember SF was never the biggest favorite in any week down the road, so I could see myself switching to them this week. You would think that they would have value in the future, but this might turn out to be the best week for SF.
SurvivorGrid does the same thing. For whatever it's worth, they project SF second biggest favorite in weeks 9, 12, and 14. Weeks 12 and 14 both have #1 as Denver.
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Old 09-11-2014, 12:03 PM   #2658
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

For anyone doing the Zathras Pool, I'll be nice and post the EV numbers for week 1. This is based on the actual pick distribution, a moneyline from Friday, and simulation so numbers might be a little off:

DEN +5.52%
DET +3.94%
PHI +2.16%
PIT +0.85%
NYJ -0.41%
CHI -1.56%
SF -4.68%

Other teams all -5% or worse.
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Old 09-11-2014, 09:03 PM   #2659
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

For a large pool (~4-500) with multiple entries - do you guys prefer to diversify your picks or let it ride on a single selection each week?
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Old 09-11-2014, 09:07 PM   #2660
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

I went Baltimore in every pool this week.
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Old 09-11-2014, 09:36 PM   #2661
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by wamplerr View Post
For anyone doing the Zathras Pool, I'll be nice and post the EV numbers for week 1. This is based on the actual pick distribution, a moneyline from Friday, and simulation so numbers might be a little off:

DEN +5.52%
DET +3.94%
PHI +2.16%
PIT +0.85%
NYJ -0.41%
CHI -1.56%
SF -4.68%

Other teams all -5% or worse.
Wtf
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Old 09-11-2014, 11:04 PM   #2662
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

going 49ers.
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Old 09-11-2014, 11:16 PM   #2663
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by nyjets15 View Post
I mapped out the whole season before week 1 and I have the redskins this week. Obviously things can change, but SF was the one "good" team that I never used. So from what I remember SF was never the biggest favorite in any week down the road, so I could see myself switching to them this week. You would think that they would have value in the future, but this might turn out to be the best week for SF.
32 teams & a 17 week season. You should not have to use a team as bad as Washington at all.
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Old 09-12-2014, 01:04 AM   #2664
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Um Washington is not in the bottom 10
And a home game against loljax
Makes them unique value
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:10 AM   #2665
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

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Originally Posted by kdog View Post
32 teams & a 17 week season. You should not have to use a team as bad as Washington at all.
this is absolutely terrible advice
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:11 AM   #2666
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by THAKID View Post
Wtf
missing packers obv
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:39 AM   #2667
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Man week 4 looks impossible.
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Old 09-12-2014, 08:59 AM   #2668
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Really? Week 8 is the one I have standing out the most.
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:09 AM   #2669
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66 View Post
Man week 4 looks impossible.
seems like its gonna be one of those weeks where everyone is on chargers and 90% of the pool is eliminated when they lose
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:37 AM   #2670
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by accobra_kid View Post
Code:
DENVER        Kansas City  -750  23%  30% 
GREEN BAY     New York     -395  29%  30%
SAN FRANCISCO Chicago      -299   5%   7%
New Orleans   CLEVELAND    -270  22%  10%
TAMPA BAY     St. Louis    -255   5%   7%
WASHINGTON    Jacksonville -255   3%   6%
CINCINNATI    Atlanta      -244   0%   1%
Seattle       San Diego    -240   3%   2%
TENNESSEE     Dallas       -190   1%   1%
INDIANAPOLIS  Philadelphia -159   0%   1%
New England   MINNESOTA    -158   2%   1%
Houston       OAKLAND      -143   3%   1%
BALTIMORE     Pittsbugh    -138   0%   0%
CAROLINA      Detroit      -137   0%   0%  
Miami         BUFFALO       off   1%   0%
Arizona       NEW YORK      off   1%   1%
Lines are from Pinnacle as of 6:00am Wednesday, other totals are popularity from Yahoo and OFP.
Thanks for posting this, appreciate it.
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Old 09-12-2014, 10:54 AM   #2671
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NFL Survivor Picks

Out of 700 people I was the only person to use the Ravens
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Old 09-12-2014, 03:11 PM   #2672
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by sbecks View Post
For a large pool (~4-500) with multiple entries - do you guys prefer to diversify your picks or let it ride on a single selection each week?
Mine is even larger...3300+ entrants..we have double picks in weeks 5, 10 and 12. The double picks the rest of the way. I have multiple entries (4) and looking to put 3 of them on Denver and maybe 1 on a flyer like Washington.

How many of you are using mapping pools to project your picks? I did a little last year but not sure if it helps or not...curious as to others strat.
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Old 09-12-2014, 06:34 PM   #2673
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Mapping out a little does help but you still need to survive. I find it most useful when teams are close. I do think Redskins are a decent pick and likely who I am picking but have not decided yet.

Any pros/cons for 49'ers or Greenbay?
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:31 PM   #2674
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Anyone have advice for 12 picks in a pool. I'm thinking about going 8 GB, 2 wash, and 2 Houston? idk if should just go all on 1 team or spread the risk. I just feel its best to get some teams that offer no value later on out of the way against weak teams. Def think Houston and Washington games offer a lot of risk though.
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Old 09-12-2014, 09:43 PM   #2675
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Re: NFL Survivor Picks

Quote:
Originally Posted by THAKID View Post
Um Washington is not in the bottom 10
And a home game against loljax
Makes them unique value
Try as I might I can't find 10 teams worse than the Redskins. And loljax won more games than the skins last year.
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